(cache) Planned Parenthood is Trump's next emergency - Axios
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Planned Parenthood is Trump's next emergency

Brennan Linsley / AP

The fight to defund Planned Parenthood could shut down the government in less than a month. It's getting hardly any media attention but it's the most immediate emergency confronting the Trump administration, which is reeling after its Obamacare fiasco.

What you need to know:

  • The current continuing resolution to fund the government expires on April 28.
  • The conservative House Freedom Caucus — the group Trump blamed on Twitter this morning for killing his Obamacare replacement bill — will almost certainly make defunding the women's health group and country's biggest abortion provider a non-negotiable condition for it to support the government funding bill.
  • That's a big problem. There's no way a bill that defunds Planned Parenthood gets 60 votes in the Senate.
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Ryan faces a potentially diabolical situation. He wants to defund Planned Parenthood but he's not going to let the government shut down on his watch. His two bad options:

  1. Defund Planned Parenthood but do so knowing the bill won't make it through the Senate. Where that game ends: a government shutdown.
  2. Leave out the provision to defund Planned Parenthood. That's also politically dangerous. He'd lose lots of Republican votes and would need to pass the funding bill with Democrats' support. That's the kind of thing John Boehner was forced to do during the dying days of his speakership.

Watch what Mike Pence does here. When the VP served in the House he led the conservatives' charge to defund Planned Parenthood. Unlike the President, he's authentically steeped in the social conservative movement and views it as a matter of unwavering principal.

Trump's argument: The Freedom Caucus squibbed its historic opportunity to defund Planned Parenthood (for one year) through the Obamacare replacement bill. It'll be interesting to see how social conservative leaders respond to that talking point, given groups like Penny Nance's Concerned Women for America backed the bill. Nance tells me she won't let Trump or Republicans "move on" from their promise.

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Trump sees Black Caucus as potential policy ally

Andrew Harnik / AP

The healthcare fiasco taught President Trump he can't accomplish big things with just one party. He's looking to work with Democrats but his inner circle anticipates total opposition from Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi.

Some in that circle, however, believe there's an opportunity to go through the Congressional Black Caucus, a Democratic group Trump met with last week.

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Sam Geduldig, a Republican lobbyist at CGCN Group, has been working with African-American lobbyists on just such a project.

"There is a path for bipartisan victories in Congress," Geduldig says. "A coalition of Black Caucus Democrats and Republicans is kryptonite to rich white liberals. Imagine a tax and infrastructure bill that provides tax cuts for Republicans and new pipes for Flint, Michigan. How do Stabenow and Peters [Michigan's U.S. Senators] justify voting no?"

One of these Democrat lobbyists, Jennifer Stewart of Stewart Strategies and Solutions, tells me she opposes the left's resistance movement because "resistance isn't going to get anything for our communities." She says unusual political times demand unusual methods.

Note of caution: Another lobbyist working on Geduldig's project, Mike Williams of the Williams Group, tells me CBC members are leery of being "used as a photo op." Williams says this will only work if Trump brings them in to help write the legislation, whether it concerns educational opportunities, prescription drug prices, or infrastructure investment.

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Trump rewrites his playbook

Evan Vucci / AP

Amid high-stakes postmortems that include conversations with President Trump about White House staffing and operations, aides are rewriting their plans for the next legislative fight — with a weakened president and speaker, emboldened House hardliners, and a party at war with itself.

"It's like you're in a room with 2-year- olds, and one side complains about any attention you give the other," a White House official said.

Forget pie in the sky like tax reform or a massive infrastructure package. Now aides fear a government shutdown when the current continuing resolution runs out at the end of April.

The new playbook ... words

"I'm worried about everything right now," said a senior Republican operative who's in the war.

The new White House sequence: Focus on the Supreme Court confirmation of Judge Neil Gorsuch between now and the Easter congressional break. After that, work urgently on funding the government, and begin the conversation about tax reform.

The bottom line: Trump advisers tell us they're pessimistic about figuring out how to get anything done — the "lessons learned" don't include even a theoretical path to victory.

A White House official: "We underestimated the vitriol in the Republican conference. The animosity between [the hardline House Freedom Caucus] and leadership is such that it's hard to see how the coalition comes together. Each time there was an accommodation, there was a new demand."

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Trump to unveil Kushner-led "SWAT team"

Olivier Douliery / Pool via CNP /MediaPunch/IPX

President Trump will unveil a White House "SWAT team" tomorrow, to be led by Jared Kushner and designed to bring ideas and expertise from the business world to government, according to the Washington Post. Here's what you need to know about the White House Office of American Innovation:

Key tasks: Overhaul care for veterans, fight opioid addiction, burnish Trump's legacy, potentially privatize some aspects of government.

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Key players: Kushner, Gary Cohn, Dina Powell, Ivanka (sort of), Chris Liddell, Reed Cornish, Andrew Brembeg, working with the likes of Bill Gates, Tim Cook, Elon Musk and Marc Benioff of Salesforce.

Trump says: "I promised the American people I would produce results, and apply my 'ahead of schedule, under budget' mentality to the government."

Kushner says: "The government should be run like a great American company."

Benioff says (of Kushner): "When I talk to him, he does remind me of a lot of the young, scrappy entrepreneurs that I invest in in their 30s."

Bonus surprise: Kushner has been collaborating with supposed foe Chris Christie on a soon-to-be-announced drug addiction council.

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Iran announces sanctions on 15 US companies

Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP

Iran has announced sanctions on 15 US companies, including Raytheon and RE/MAX, apparently in response to sanctions the Trump administration unveiled last month following an Iranian missile test.

Per AP: "The wide-ranging list... appeared more symbolic than anything else as the firms weren't immediately known to be doing business anywhere in the Islamic Republic."

The context: The Trump administration has taken a combative tone with Iran, with former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn putting the county "on notice" following the ballistic missile test.

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Freedom Caucus member resigns over health care collapse

Andrew Harnik / AP

Ted Poe of Texas has resigned from the conservative Freedom Caucus after the group refused to back the GOP health care plan, which he supported.

"Saying no is easy, leading is hard, but that's what we were elected to do," he said in a statement. Here's what he said yesterday about his Freedom Caucus colleagues:

Why it matters: The collapse of the health care bill showed that if conservatives hold out, and Trump can't win over Democrats, it will be very difficult to pass anything significant. Trump needs more on his party's right flank to break ranks and support his agenda.

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EPA chief: Paris climate pact is "a bad deal"

Susan Walsh / AP

Scott Pruitt, the EPA administrator, offered a glimpse into how the Trump administration views the Paris Climate accord on ABC's "This Week."

"What was wrong with Paris was not just that it was, you know, failed to be treated as a treaty, but China and India, the largest producers of CO2 internationally, got away scot-free. They didn't have to take steps until 2030. So we've penalized ourselves through lost jobs while China and India didn't take steps to address the issue internationally. So Paris was just a bad deal, in my estimation."

He said the Paris pact represented the "anti-jobs and anti-growth" Obama-era policies.

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Hundreds arrested at Russia anti-corruption protests

Evgeny Feldman for Navalny campaign via AP

Hundreds were arrested at large anti-corruption protests in Moscow and other Russian cities on Sunday, including opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

The protests came after Navalny leveled accusations of corruption against Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev. They appeared to be the largest demonstrations in Russia since 2012.

Also arrested was Alec Luhn, an American correspondent for the Guardian.

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NYT: "Knives are out" for Gary Cohn

Andrew Harnik / AP

The NYT's Maggie Haberman reports that the "knives are out" for Gary Cohn, the former Goldman Sachs president who now serves as one of Trump's top advisers. Politico's Ben White names a leading conspirator: Steve Bannon.

The feud between emerging White House factions (Jared, Ivanka, Cohn and Dina Powell on one side, Bannon, Priebus and Stephen Miller on the other) has been bubbling over into media reports.

Cohn has Trump's ear, but he's a registered Democrat who doesn't share Bannon's vision of economic nationalism and the "deconstruction of the administrative state", as well as a competitor for power.

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Trump dreams of Democrats

Susan Walsh / AP

White House aides are so doubtful about uniting warring factions of House Republicans that they now are debating how they could lure 15 or so Democrats to join Republicans on big measures:

  • The White House euphemism, as aides discuss the strategy internally: "a broader coalition."
  • The theory: If you could fold in a few Dems with moderate and establishment Republicans, you'd have a better chance of passing tax reform or a huge infrastructure bill.
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  • A White House official: "Typically, tax reform would be something that could be bipartisan. That would really be our hope."
  • The road not taken: Some Trump friends think he has made a huge mistake since the inauguration by antagonizing Dems rather than courting them. Because of his tweets and rants, they're less likely to give him the benefit of the doubt than they were Jan. 20, and any ambitious Dem who tried to work with him would get fiercer blowback from the base.
  • Plan B? A longtime Trump confidant said the irony of the loss "is that there is a scenario where this path leads POTUS to realize that he is better off building a coalition with moderate Rs and some reasonable Ds ... [I]t is totally who he naturally is, and he would love the accolades and positive feedback and improving numbers."
  • Why it's unlikely: White House officials understand that Ds sense weakness and have no incentive to help bail out Trump.
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Trump reportedly gave Merkel a bill for £300 billion

Evan Vucci / AP

President Trump reportedly gave German Chancellor Angela Merkel an invoice for over £300 billion in what he deems to be owed contributions to NATO, per The Times of London.

Using 2002 as a starting point — the year Merkel's predecessor Gerhard Schröder pledged to increase defense spending — U.S. officials allegedly calculated the extent to which German defense spending had fallen short of the 2% of GDP target that NATO requires, added the amount together, and then charged interest. Trump has also reportedly asked his staff to prepare similar calculations for all other NATO members below the 2% target.

Merkel is said to have "ignored the provocation", but has vowed to raise German defense spending gradually.

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Trump's 360 on Mark Meadows and the Freedom Caucus

AP

A new piece in the New York Times Magazine illustrates how confident President Trump was that he could get the Freedom Caucus and chairman Mark Meadows onside over health care, before the "30 guys in control of the government" tanked the plan.

Trump on March 7:

Mark Meadows is a great guy and a friend of mine. I don't think he'd ever disappoint me, or the party. I think he's great. No, I would never call him out on Twitter.

Trump this morning:

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Trump vs the Freedom Caucus

Alex Brandon / AP

Trump began his Sunday morning with a Tweet:

A top White House official said Trump is "deeply disappointed in the Freedom Caucus," and specifically with Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.).

The senior Republican operative said the hardline House Freedom Caucus "just proved that you have 30 guys in control of the government."

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"They have been given power by the circumstances, and they're wielding it," the operative said. "Their view is: 'We got rid of a Speaker [Boehner], we're taking on another Speaker, and we stared down the president.'"

Good Cop was a flop: White House aides are debating whether they should have be more aggressive with the hardliners, including flying into their districts and threatening them with primaries.

"Something in this dynamic has to change," the operative said. "Nobody has taken them on or held them accountable or even mildly messed with them. One of the things you could do is say, on Twitter and in their districts: Obamacare is still the law of the land because of them."

Meadows responds on ABC's "This Week": If Democrats are applauding "they shouldn't... we are in a negotiation process."

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