Dr. Robin Murray and Dr. Kenneth Kendler
Psychological Medicine
Cambridge University Press
University Printing House
Shaftesbury Road
Cambridge CB2 8BS
UK
Dear Dr. Murray and Dr. Kendler:
In 2013, Psychological Medicine published an article called “Recovery from chronic fatigue syndrome after treatments given in the PACE trial.”[1] In the paper, White et al. reported that graded exercise therapy (GET) and cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) each led to recovery in 22% of patients, compared with only 7% in a comparison group. The two treatments, they concluded, offered patients “the best chance of recovery.”
PACE was the largest clinical trial ever conducted for chronic fatigue syndrome (also known as myalgic encephalomyelitis, or ME/CFS), with the first results published in The Lancet in 2011.[2] It was an open-label study with subjective primary outcomes, a design that requires strict vigilance to prevent the possibility of bias. Yet PACE suffered from major flaws that have raised serious concerns about the validity, reliability and integrity of the findings.[3] Despite these flaws, White et al.’s claims of recovery in Psychological Medicine have greatly impacted treatment, research, and public attitudes towards ME/CFS.
According to the protocol for the PACE trial, participants needed to meet specific benchmarks on four different measures in order to be defined as having achieved “recovery.”[4] But in Psychological Medicine, White et al. significantly relaxed each of the four required outcomes, making “recovery” far easier to achieve. No PACE oversight committees appear to have approved the redefinition of recovery; at least, no such approvals were mentioned. White et al. did not publish the results they would have gotten using the original protocol approach, nor did they include sensitivity analyses, the standard statistical method for assessing the impact of such changes.
Patients, advocates and some scientists quickly pointed out these and other problems. In October of 2015, Virology Blog published an investigation of PACE, by David Tuller of the University of California, Berkeley, that confirmed the trial’s methodological lapses.[5] Since then, more than 12,000 patients and supporters have signed a petition calling for Psychological Medicine to retract the questionable recovery claims. Yet the journal has taken no steps to address the issues.
Last summer, Queen Mary University of London released anonymized PACE trial data under a tribunal order arising from a patient’s freedom-of-information request. In December, an independent research group used that newly released data to calculate the recovery results per the original methodology outlined in the protocol.[6] This reanalysis documented what was already clear: that the claims of recovery could not be taken at face value.
In the reanalysis, which appeared in the journal Fatigue: Biomedicine, Health & Behavior, Wilshire et al. reported that the PACE protocol’s definition of “recovery” yielded recovery rates of 7 % or less for all arms of the trial. Moreover, in contrast to the findings reported in Psychological Medicine, the PACE interventions offered no statistically significant benefits. In conclusion, noted Wilshire et al., “the claim that patients can recover as a result of CBT and GET is not justified by the data, and is highly misleading to clinicians and patients considering these treatments.”
In short, the PACE trial had null results for recovery, according to the protocol definition selected by the authors themselves. Besides the inflated recovery results reported in Psychological Medicine, the study suffered from a host of other problems, including the following:
*In a paradox, the revised recovery thresholds for physical function and fatigue–two of the four recovery measures–were so lax that patients could deteriorate during the trial and yet be counted as “recovered” on these outcomes. In fact, 13 % of participants met one or both of these recovery thresholds at baseline. White et al. did not disclose these salient facts in Psychological Medicine. We know of no other studies in the clinical trial literature in which recovery thresholds for an indicator actually represented worse health status than the entry thresholds for serious disability on the same indicator.
*During the trial, the authors published a newsletter for participants that included glowing testimonials from earlier participants about their positive outcomes in the trial.[7] An article in the same newsletter reported that a national clinical guidelines committee had already recommended CBT and GET as effective; the newsletter article did not mention adaptive pacing therapy, an intervention developed specifically for the PACE trial. The participant testimonials and the newsletter article could have biased the responses of an unknown number of the two hundred or more people still undergoing assessments—about a third of the total sample.
*The PACE protocol included a promise that the investigators would inform prospective participants of “any possible conflicts of interest.” Key PACE investigators have had longstanding relationships with major insurance companies, advising them on how to handle disability claims related to ME/CFS. However, the trial’s consent forms did not mention these self-evident conflicts of interest. It is irrelevant that insurance companies were not directly involved in the trial and insufficient that the investigators disclosed these links in their published research. Given this serious omission, the consent obtained from the 641 trial participants is of questionable legitimacy.
Such flaws are unacceptable in published research; they cannot be defended or explained away. The PACE investigators have repeatedly tried to address these concerns. Yet their efforts to date—in journal correspondence, news articles, blog posts, and most recently in their response to Wilshire et al. in Fatigue[8]—have been incomplete and unconvincing.
The PACE trial compounded these errors by using a case definition for the illness that required only one symptom–six months of disabling, unexplained fatigue. A 2015 report from the U.S. National Institutes of Health recommended abandoning this single-symptom approach for identifying patients.[9] The NIH report concluded that this broad case definition generated heterogeneous samples of people with a variety of fatiguing illnesses, and that using it to study ME/CFS could “impair progress and cause harm.”
PACE included sub-group analyses of two alternate and more specific case definitions, but these case definitions were modified in ways that could have impacted the results. Moreover, an unknown number of prospective participants might have met these alternate criteria but been excluded from the study by the initial screening.
To protect patients from ineffective and possibly harmful treatments, White et al.’s recovery claims cannot stand in the literature. Therefore, we are asking Psychological Medicine to retract the paper immediately. Patients and clinicians deserve and expect accurate and unbiased information on which to base their treatment decisions. We urge you to take action without further delay.
Sincerely,
Dharam V. Ablashi, DVM, MS, Dip Bact
Scientific Director
HHV-6 Foundation
Former Senior Investigator
National Cancer Institute
National Institutes of Health
Bethesda, Maryland, USA
James N. Baraniuk, MD
Professor, Department of Medicine
Georgetown University
Washington, D.C., USA
Lisa F. Barcellos, MPH, PhD
Professor of Epidemiology
School of Public Health
California Institute for Quantitative Biosciences
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, California, USA
Lucinda Bateman, MD
Medical Director
Bateman Horne Center
Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
Alison C. Bested, MD, FRCPC
Clinical Associate Professor
Faculty of Medicine
University of British Columbia
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Molly Brown, PhD
Assistant Professor
Department of Psychology
DePaul University
Chicago, Illinois, USA
John Chia, MD
Clinician and Researcher
EVMED Research
Lomita, California, USA
Todd E. Davenport, PT, DPT, MPH, OCS
Associate Professor
Department of Physical Therapy
University of the Pacific
Stockton, California, USA
Ronald W. Davis, PhD
Professor of Biochemistry and Genetics
Stanford University
Stanford, California, USA
Simon Duffy, PhD, FRSA
Director
Centre for Welfare Reform
Sheffield, UK
Jonathan C.W. Edwards, MD
Emeritus Professor of Medicine
University College London
London, UK
Derek Enlander, MD
New York, New York, USA
Meredyth Evans, PhD
Clinical Psychologist and Researcher
Chicago, Illinois, USA
Kenneth J. Friedman, PhD
Associate Professor of Physiology and Pharmacology (retired)
New Jersey Medical School
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Robert F. Garry, PhD
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Tulane University School of Medicine
New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
Keith Geraghty, PhD
Honorary Research Fellow
Division of Population Health, Health Services Research & Primary Care
School of Health Sciences
University of Manchester
Manchester, UK
Ian Gibson, PhD
Former Member of Parliament for Norwich North
Former Dean, School of Biological Sciences
University of East Anglia
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Norwich Medical School
University of East Anglia
Norwich, UK
Rebecca Goldin, PhD
Professor of Mathematics
George Mason University
Fairfax, Virginia, USA
Ellen Goudsmit, PhD, FBPsS
Health Psychologist (retired)
Former Visiting Research Fellow
University of East London
London, UK
Maureen Hanson, PhD
Liberty Hyde Bailey Professor
Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics
Cornell University
Ithaca, New York, USA
Malcolm Hooper, PhD
Emeritus Professor of Medicinal Chemistry
University of Sunderland
Sunderland, UK
Leonard A. Jason, PhD
Professor of Psychology
DePaul University
Chicago, Illinois, USA
Michael W. Kahn, MD
Assistant Professor of Psychiatry
Harvard Medical School
Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Jon D. Kaiser, MD
Clinical Faculty
Department of Medicine
University of California, San Francisco
San Francisco, California, USA
David L. Kaufman, MD
Medical Director
Open Medicine Institute
Mountain View, California, USA
Betsy Keller, PhD
Department of Exercise and Sports Sciences
Ithaca College
Ithaca, New York, USA
Nancy Klimas, MD
Director, Institute for Neuro-Immune Medicine
Nova Southeastern University
Director, Miami VA Medical Center GWI and CFS/ME Program
Miami, Florida, USA
Andreas M. Kogelnik, MD, PhD
Director and Chief Executive Officer
Open Medicine Institute
Mountain View, California, USA
Eliana M. Lacerda, MD, MSc, PhD
Clinical Assistant Professor
Disability & Eye Health Group/Clinical Research Department
Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
London, UK
Charles W. Lapp, MD
Medical Director
Hunter-Hopkins Center
Charlotte, North Carolina, USA
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Department of Community and Family Medicine
Duke University School of Medicine
Durham, North Carolina, USA
Bruce Levin, PhD
Professor of Biostatistics
Columbia University
New York, New York, USA
Alan R. Light, PhD
Professor of Anesthesiology
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University of Utah
Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
Vincent C. Lombardi, PhD
Director of Research
Nevada Center for Biomedical Research
Reno, Nevada, USA
Alex Lubet, PhD
Professor of Music
Head, Interdisciplinary Graduate Group in Disability Studies
Affiliate Faculty, Center for Bioethics
Affiliate Faculty, Center for Cognitive Sciences
University of Minnesota
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
Steven Lubet
Williams Memorial Professor of Law
Northwestern University Pritzker School of Law
Chicago, Illinois, USA
Sonya Marshall-Gradisnik, PhD
Professor of Immunology
Co-Director, National Centre for Neuroimmunology and Emerging Diseases
Griffith University
Queensland, Australia
Patrick E. McKnight, PhD
Professor of Psychology
George Mason University
Fairfax, Virginia, USA
Jose G. Montoya, MD, FACP, FIDSA
Professor of Medicine
Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine
Stanford University School of Medicine
Stanford, California, USA
Zaher Nahle, PhD, MPA
Vice President for Research and Scientific Programs
Solve ME/CFS Initiative
Los Angeles, California, USA
Henrik Nielsen, MD
Specialist in Internal Medicine and Rheumatology
Copenhagen, Denmark
James M. Oleske, MD, MPH
François-Xavier Bagnoud Professor of Pediatrics
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Director, Division of Pediatrics Allergy, Immunology & Infectious Diseases
Department of Pediatrics
Rutgers New Jersey Medical School
Newark, New Jersey, USA
Elisa Oltra, PhD
Professor of Molecular and Cellular Biology
Catholic University of Valencia School of Medicine
Valencia, Spain
Richard Podell, MD, MPH
Clinical Professor
Department of Family Medicine
Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School
New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA
Nicole Porter, PhD
Psychologist in Private Practice
Rolling Ground, Wisconsin, USA
Vincent R. Racaniello, PhD
Professor of Microbiology and Immunology
Columbia University
New York, New York, USA
Arthur L. Reingold, MD
Professor of Epidemiology
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, California, USA
Anders Rosén, MD
Professor of Inflammation and Tumor Biology
Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine
Division of Cell Biology
Linköping University
Linköping, Sweden
Peter C. Rowe, MD
Professor of Pediatrics
Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine
Baltimore, Maryland, USA
William Satariano, PhD
Professor of Epidemiology and Community Health
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, California, USA
Ola Didrik Saugstad, MD, PhD, FRCPE
Professor of Pediatrics
University of Oslo
Director and Department Head
Department of Pediatric Research
University of Oslo and Oslo University Hospital
Oslo, Norway
Charles Shepherd, MB, BS
Honorary Medical Adviser to the ME Association
Buckingham, UK
Christopher R. Snell, PhD
Scientific Director
WorkWell Foundation
Ripon, California, USA
Donald R. Staines, MBBS, MPH, FAFPHM, FAFOEM
Clinical Professor
Menzies Health Institute Queensland
Co-Director, National Centre for Neuroimmunology and Emerging Diseases
Griffith University
Queensland, Australia
Philip B. Stark, PhD
Professor of Statistics
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, California, USA
Eleanor Stein, MD, FRCP(C)
Psychiatrist in Private Practice
Assistant Clinical Professor
University of Calgary
Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Staci Stevens, MA
Founder, Exercise Physiologist
Workwell Foundation
Ripon, California, USA
Julian Stewart, MD, PhD
Professor of Pediatrics, Physiology and Medicine
Associate Chairman for Patient Oriented Research
Director, Center for Hypotension
New York Medical College
Hawthorne, NY, USA
Leonie Sugarman, PhD
Emeritus Associate Professor of Applied Psychology
University of Cumbria
Carlisle, UK
John Swartzberg, MD
Clinical Professor Emeritus
School of Public Health
University of California, Berkeley
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Ronald G. Tompkins, MD, ScD
Summer M Redstone Professor of Surgery
Harvard Medical School
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Palm Coast, Florida, USA
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Auckland, New Zealand
Michael VanElzakker, PhD
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Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Mark VanNess, PhD
Professor of Health, Exercise & Sports Sciences
University of the Pacific
Stockton, California, USA
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Ripon, California, USA
Mark Vink, MD
Family Physician
Soerabaja Research Center
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Frans Visser, MD
Cardiologist
Stichting Cardiozorg
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Tony Ward, MA (Hons), PhD, DipClinPsyc
Registered Clinical Psychologist
Professor of Clinical Psychology
School of Psychology
Victoria University of Wellington
Wellington, New Zealand
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University of Birmingham
Birmingham, UK
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University of Kent
Canterbury, UK
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Infectious Disease Consultant
London, UK
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Private Practice
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School of Psychology
Victoria University of Wellington
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Stanford University
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DePaul University
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Dublin, California, USA
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Research Consultant in Experimental Electrophysiology
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ME/CFS Patient Organizations
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UK
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Australia
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[1] White PD, Goldsmith K, Johnson AL, et al. 2013. Recovery from chronic fatigue syndrome after treatments given in the PACE trial. Psychological Medicine 43(10): 2227-2235.
[2] White PD, Goldsmith KA, Johnson AL, et al. 2011. Comparison of adaptive pacing therapy, cognitive behaviour therapy, graded exercise therapy, and specialist medical care for chronic fatigue syndrome (PACE): a randomised trial. The Lancet 377: 823–836
[3] Racaniello V. 2016. An open letter to The Lancet, again. Virology Blog, 10 Feb. Available at: http://www.virology.ws/2016/02/10/open-letter-lancet-again/ (accessed on 2/24/17).
[4] White PD, Sharpe MC, Chalder T, et al. 2007. Protocol for the PACE trial: a randomised controlled trial of adaptive pacing, cognitive behaviour therapy, and graded exercise, as supplements to standardised specialist medical care versus standardised specialist medical care alone for patients with the chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis or encephalopathy. BMC Neurology 7: 6.
[5] Tuller D. 2015. Trial by error: the troubling case of the PACE chronic fatigue syndrome trial. Virology Blog, 21-23 Oct. Available at: http://www.virology.ws/2015/10/21/trial-by-error-i/ (accessed on 2/24/17)
[6] Wilshire C, Kindlon T, Matthees A, McGrath S. 2016. Can patients with chronic fatigue syndrome really recover after graded exercise or cognitive behavioural therapy? A critical commentary and preliminary re-analysis of the PACE trial. Fatigue: Biomedicine, Health & Behavior; published online 14 Dec. Available at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21641846.2017.1259724 (accessed on 2/24/17)
[7] PACE Participants Newsletter. December 2008. Issue 3. Available at: http://www.wolfson.qmul.ac.uk/images/pdfs/participantsnewsletter3.pdf (accessed on 2/24/17).
[8] Sharpe M, Chalder T, Johnson AL, et al. 2017. Do more people recover from chronic fatigue syndrome with cognitive behaviour therapy or graded exercise therapy than with other treatments? Fatigue: Biomedicine, Health & Behavior; published online 15 Feb. Available at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21641846.2017.1288629 (accessed on 2/24/17).
[9] Green CR, Cowan P, Elk R. 2015. National Institutes of Health Pathways to Prevention Workshop: Advancing the research on myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome. Annals of Internal Medicine 162: 860-865.
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