Why Wilders doesn’t worry the Dutch

Financial Times

MARCH 9, 2017 by: Simon Kuper

Geert Wilders hardly ever goes outside. The Dutch nativist politician has lived under non-stop protection since 2004 because of death threats from Islamist fundamentalists. One morning last spring, I found him sitting in his heavily guarded parliamentary office in The Hague, beneath a portrait of Winston Churchill. Once I got him off his standard talking points about the supposed evils of Islam and the EU, he was enjoyable company: witty, intelligent, relaxed, friendly and a good listener. We spoke just before the UK voted on Brexit. Wilders said that if Brexit happened, he would “immediately” propose a Dutch referendum on Nexit. 

It was the most exciting thing anyone told me in my two days trekking around The Hague. Wilders plus Churchill plus Nexit was a dream intro for any foreign journalist struggling to interest his readers in Dutch politics. But I buried the vignette halfway down the article I subsequently wrote on the possibility of a Nexit because, having grown up in the Netherlands, I knew that his quote had little bearing on Dutch reality. There are two very different stories about next Wednesday’s Dutch elections: a foreign story, which is all about Wilders and whether he can complete the populist treble after Brexit and Trump; and a Dutch story, in which Wilders isn’t even the main character. 

Foreign interest in Dutch elections usually approaches zero. This time is different only because many foreigners are treating Wednesday’s election as the latest face-off between the two big global political movements: nativists versus internationalists. 

Wilders encourages this view. He doesn’t want to be a mere domestic politician. Like ambitious Dutch people in all fields, he craves international status. His office is littered with foreign signifiers: a newspaper photograph of Margaret Thatcher, an Israeli flag in a window and, on his office door, a sticker with an Arabic quote that says (according to Wilders) that the Koran is poison and Mohammed a thief. When we spoke, he was excitedly preparing for his trip to the US Republican convention in Cleveland. Even the four bodyguards loafing in the waiting room were reminders of his battle with global Islamist fundamentalism. And his biggest donors include American anti-Islamists such as David Horowitz, who seem to think that only the Dutch Churchill can save Europe from becoming a caliphate. 

These people are now rooting for Wilders’ PVV to become the biggest Dutch party. In the foreign view, populism would then “win” in the Netherlands. But the Dutch take on the election is very different. 

Wilders is polling at about 15 per cent, one point behind the centre-right VVD. Let’s say that like Brexit and Trump, he outperforms the polls (he didn’t in past elections). Imagine he gets 20 per cent. Well, so what? Dutch governments are always coalitions. You need more than 50 per cent to rule. Almost all other parties say they don’t want to rule with Wilders. 

Dutch coalitions depend on compromises. But Wilders doesn’t like compromise, and this time his extreme agenda makes it almost unfeasible. He makes Trump look like a squashy multiculturalist. Wilders proposes shutting all mosques in the Netherlands, banning the Koran, closing Dutch borders and leaving the EU. No other Dutch party could accept these positions. 

It isn’t even clear that Wilders wants to rule. If he compromises in order to join a coalition government, he becomes almost a standard Dutch politician, and therefore less interesting to the Horowitzes. More exciting to stay pure, and remain the only Dutch politician who is heard abroad, better known than Mark Rutte, the prime minister since 2010. Wilders’ radicalism, like his dyed blond swept-back hair, gives him an international brand. 

But Dutch voters care about who ends up running their country. To them, Wilders has lost relevance. Few now consider him the central figure in the election. The three main leftist parties — PvdA, SP and GroenLinks, who would happily rule together — are polling at 28 per cent between them. The centre-right VVD and CDA jointly hit that figure too. Wilders is the biggest party only because he has the nativist flank almost to himself.

His extreme statements still make news, but have lost some impact over time. It’s as if Trump had been leading a party for 11 years: the media are getting bored with Wilders. Listen to Dutch radio or watch TV and you are as likely to hear about Alexander Pechtold of the liberal D66 party, or Jesse Klaver of the leftist GroenLinks — both virtually unknown abroad but big fish in the Netherlands — as you are about Wilders.

Wilders’ views on asylum seekers, immigration and the EU influence the national debate. But polls show that the biggest issue for voters is “zorg” — which means both healthcare and eldercare. People are also worried about public rudeness and misbehaviour. Long technocratic TV debates on these topics draw big audiences. 

All this is deeply tedious for foreigners. Even if Wilders finishes first on March 15, expect months of boring coalition talks, culminating in a government without Wilders. Then foreigners can forget about Dutch politics for another decade.