Saturday, January 28, 2017

Testing economic statements


The purpose of positive economics is to make accurate statements about economic phenomena. I also believe this is the purpose of any science. Scientists attempt to make accurate statements about their object of study. The hard part is determining what statements are true.

I also believe that all of mathematical economics falls under the umbrella of economic statements. Equations and models make statements about economic variables. Geometrical pictures make statements about economic variables also.

So basically I think economics goes like this:

1. Make an economic statement (hypothesis)
2. Test the validity of the economic statement

In my opinion, testing economic statements (step 2) is the most important part of economics. Building a DSGE model is cool, but it's only a statement. I believe it's more important to find evidence that supports or disputes an economic statement in order to determine accuracy. That's why I'm a big fan of econometrics and the empirical revolution in economics. I'm inspired by innovative methods that determine the validity of economic statements.

I believe one of the most common mistakes in modern economics is too much time spent building complex formal economic statements and not enough emphasis testing the validity of those statements. Economists spend hours trying to put their statements into formal language according to academic standards. I believe economic statements do not need to be complex in order to be testable.

Earlier this month, I created a list over 1000 economic theories on an excel spreadsheet. My goal is to find evidence that helps determine the validity of each theory. I know this will take a very long time, but I think it will be time well spent. I think that every economic theory must have an entirely different method to test its validity. This will require reading many economic papers that provide evidence supporting or disputing each theory. I might even need to do some econometric analysis myself. The purpose is to build a reference tool for economic analysis.

3 comments:

  1. It will be nice if you share the spreadsheet

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    1. Thanks for the suggestion Moin. I posted a link in the text.

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