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Updated 4:42 PM EST | Feb 6, 2017

2016-17 Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for six leagues, updated after each match

Premier League
Upcoming
2/11
Arsenal
80%
14%
Hull City
6%
2/11
Man. United
73%
19%
Watford
8%
2/11
Middlesbrough
30%
29%
Everton
41%
2/11
West Ham
48%
27%
West Brom
25%
2/11
Sunderland
33%
29%
Southampton
38%
2/11
Stoke City
54%
26%
Crystal Palace
21%
2/11
Liverpool
43%
26%
Tottenham
31%
2/12
Burnley
13%
22%
Chelsea
65%
2/12
Swansea City
46%
26%
Leicester City
27%
2/13
Bournemouth
12%
17%
Man. City
71%
See all▾
Completed
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate their performance. See more ...Adjusted goals reduce the value of late game goals when a team is already winning and goals when their opponent is a man down. Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of their shots and the players who took them, and Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. These advanced metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to affect each team’s ratings and future predictions. Read the full methodology »
2/5
Leicester City0
18%25%
Man. United3
57%
LEIMAN
Adjusted goals0.03.2
Shot-based xG0.62.1
Non-shot xG1.11.9
2/5
Man. City2
81%13%
Swansea City1
6%
MNCSWA
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG3.10.2
Non-shot xG2.80.3
2/4
Tottenham1
74%19%
Middlesbrough0
7%
TOTMID
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG2.20.7
Non-shot xG2.20.9
2/4
Watford2
44%28%
Burnley1
28%
WATBRN
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG1.51.4
Non-shot xG1.30.8
2/4
West Brom1
43%29%
Stoke City0
28%
WBASTK
Adjusted goals1.10.0
Shot-based xG1.81.3
Non-shot xG1.51.7
2/4
Hull City2
10%18%
Liverpool0
72%
HCYLIV
Adjusted goals1.70.0
Shot-based xG1.71.7
Non-shot xG0.62.2
2/4
Crystal Palace0
53%26%
Sunderland4
21%
CRYSUN
Adjusted goals0.04.2
Shot-based xG2.10.8
Non-shot xG2.30.4
2/4
Southampton1
51%27%
West Ham3
22%
SOUWHU
Adjusted goals1.13.2
Shot-based xG1.40.7
Non-shot xG1.60.4
2/4
Everton6
59%23%
Bournemouth3
17%
EVEBOU
Adjusted goals5.13.2
Shot-based xG2.72.5
Non-shot xG1.91.6
2/4
Chelsea3
53%25%
Arsenal1
23%
CHEARS
Adjusted goals2.81.1
Shot-based xG1.91.0
Non-shot xG1.71.8
2/1
Stoke City1
36%28%
Everton1
36%
STKEVE
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.71.0
Non-shot xG1.70.9
2/1
Man. United0
79%16%
Hull City0
5%
MANHCY
Adjusted goals0.00.0
Shot-based xG1.60.6
Non-shot xG2.70.9
See all▾
SPI ratingavg simulated seasonavg simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamoffdefWDLgoal diffproj. ptsptsrelegatedrele-gatedqualify for UCLqualify for UCLwin Premier Leaguewin league
Chelsea59 pts
2.3
0.6
28.34.84.9+5390<1%>99%86%
Man. City49 pts
2.4
0.8
24.06.77.2+3779<1%82%6%
Tottenham50 pts
2.1
0.7
22.311.24.5+4478<1%78%5%
Arsenal47 pts
2.5
0.9
22.47.87.8+3975<1%60%2%
Liverpool46 pts
2.3
0.9
21.110.06.9+3573<1%47%<1%
Man. United45 pts
2.1
0.7
19.712.36.0+2671<1%31%<1%
Everton40 pts
1.8
1.0
16.710.411.0+1460<1%1%<1%
West Brom36 pts
1.4
1.1
13.99.514.6-351<1%<1%<1%
West Ham31 pts
1.7
1.2
13.67.517.0-1348<1%<1%<1%
Stoke City29 pts
1.5
1.1
11.311.515.2-12452%<1%<1%
Watford30 pts
1.5
1.2
11.99.416.7-18452%<1%<1%
Burnley29 pts
1.5
1.2
12.95.719.4-15442%<1%<1%
Southampton27 pts
1.5
1.0
11.49.717.0-11443%<1%<1%
Bournemouth26 pts
1.7
1.4
10.98.218.9-20418%<1%<1%
Swansea City21 pts
1.6
1.5
10.26.421.4-313730%<1%<1%
Leicester City21 pts
1.4
1.3
8.89.419.7-243635%<1%<1%
Middlesbrough21 pts
1.1
1.1
7.312.718.0-173542%<1%<1%
Hull City20 pts
1.2
1.3
8.58.521.0-333451%<1%<1%
Crystal Palace19 pts
1.4
1.3
8.47.222.4-233261%<1%<1%
Sunderland19 pts
1.3
1.4
8.37.422.3-283263%<1%<1%
Forecast from

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