Crime and Punishment and Donald Trump

For any legitimate US businessman who is not an oilman, what is so special about Russia these days, anyway? What is the allure for someone like Donald Trump? Except as an oil exporter, and a wheat producer, Russia is not particularly important economically, with an economy about the size of Pennsylvania and Ohio combined. In fact, the direct economic relationship between the US and Russia is relatively limited. Russia has a rapidly aging and shrinking population, and despite all of the income Russia makes from exporting oil, it has failed to diversify or modernize its economy. Whatever low quality goods are made in Russia are solely for domestic consumption. Entrepreneurialism and creativity are sadly lacking. Relative to the EU, China, Japan, southern Asia or Latin America, business prospects in Russia are, generally, dismal.

Of course, American businesses will go where there is any money to be had, and sure enough certain large manufacturing, pharmaceutical, restaurant, retail and consumer goods firms do have a presence in Russia (including Pfizer, Ford, Boeing, McDonald’s, Cargill and General Electric). As for Trump’s lines of business, there do not appear to be many, if any, American real estate developers in Russia, though there is a modest tourism/hospitality business, and there are a handful of American-branded hotels operating there, including Hilton, Marriott, Ritz-Carlton and Four Seasons. The New York Times reported that Trump has been trying, without success, to develop high-rises in Russia since 1987. Fair enough. But given that he apparently has no business interests there now, why does he continue to be so highly deferential to Russian leadership?

Almost all of Russia’s wealth is concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg, most in the hands of several hundred or so billionaire and multi-millionaire oligarchs and political associates of Vladimir Putin, oilmen and kleptocrats who either embezzle from state coffers directly or who are funded by means of kickbacks or simple overcharges worth billions of dollars for government-funded projects, such as the Sochi Olympics, and many of whom allegedly trade in girls, drugs and weapons. Putin himself is suspected of having stolen between $50 and $200 billion, making him perhaps the richest man in the world. Russia’s economy is, at its core, a petroleum conglomerate run by organized crime. Corruption is rampant, the rule of law scant. Ultimately, Putin is the law, and 143 million Russian citizens are his subjects. As such, when Russia invaded Ukraine and seized Crimea, sanctions by the US and EU were targeted specifically on the oligarchs as much as they were on Russia as a whole. Some US businesses, including Exxon and GE, have had to forgo planned joint ventures with Russian companies, but overall the impact on US commerce has been small.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the western world, both the political arms and the business interests, reached out to the former Soviet and Warsaw Pact states, including Russia, with money and expertise to establish democratic institutions and mutually beneficial commercial relationships. American firms flocked to pursue opportunities in the budding free-market economies behind the fallen iron curtain. In terms of democratic institutions and principles, Eastern Europe is a work in progress, but in Russia, after some initial progress towards democracy, authoritarianism has asserted itself with a vengeance, especially over the past five years. Just as in Soviet times, Russia has effectively become a one party state with rigged elections. The free press has been pounded down and replaced by state propaganda. Human rights abuses are rampant, with LGBT citizens harassed and arrested simply for existing, with journalists and political opponents of Putin regularly assassinated, with growing levels of sex and labor trafficking, and, now, with even a Duma-approved movement to decriminalize domestic abuse. Who would want to do business with such thugs? It’s not just that they’re unsavory and dangerous; it’s that they cannot be trusted. Increasing authoritarianism has brought increasing corruption. Western societal norms have eroded. Business norms have eroded.

Absent significant economic ties, geopolitical and security considerations continue to bind the US to Russia. Since well before the fall of the Soviet Union, the US and Russia have successfully engaged to control the spread of nuclear technology and to reduce their stockpiles of nuclear weapons. The benefits to Russia have been significant. Not only has it saved billions of dollars that it would otherwise have spent on upkeep and modernization, but it gained a seat at the table of global economic cooperation summits and was accepted into the World Trade Organization. Still, Russia retains a nuclear arsenal capable of destroying the US and the rest of the planet in minutes. It is primarily behind that threat, and not economic or moral might, that Russia wields power internationally, most directly on its neighbors, though also to protect other perceived interests, such as the brutal dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad. And it is largely because of the nuclear and geopolitical threats that Russia poses that it and Putin matter to the US. Despite the commercial relationships established by US businesses in Russia over the past two decades, our national relationship with Russia at this point has little to do with business. Few American businesses, other than large international industrial and pharmaceutical conglomerates, are willing to assume the substantial risks that engagement with Russia entails. There is, however, one very notable exception: the Trump organization.

A mere three months ago, a month prior to Election Day, Republicans of stature were scrambling to condemn Donald Trump, convening hastily to consider dumping him as the Republican presidential nominee, trying to figure out whether they could replace him with Mike Pence, or some other prominent, acceptable, mainstream Republican, for it had come to light that their presidential candidate had assaulted women, many women, including by his own videotaped admission, by obscenely, unbelievably, taking his hand and forcing it between their legs, clasping onto their genitals while forcing his mouth onto theirs. At least ten women, including several with corroborating witnesses, came forward as victims of his wandering hands and tongue. It was not mere boorish behavior; it was violence of the most despicable nature. These were arrestable offenses, but for the statutes of limitations.

But there were other crimes too, an unprecedented cornucopia of criminal activity for a presidential candidate, or for any candidate for any office, in the entire history of the US. The revelation of any one of those crimes alone would have been sufficient to sink the candidacy and destroy the reputation of any candidate prior to 2016. There was the fact that he defrauded thousands of people of millions of dollars via the charade known as Trump University. There was his admitted self-dealing through his unregistered Trump Foundation. There were his numerous egregious violations of fair housing and slumlord laws. There was his violation of antitrust law in connection with a casino deal. There was also substantial evidence of other potential illegal activity, including $17 million in property insurance fraud, tax evasion via the Trump Foundation, knowingly hiring and underpaying undocumented immigrant construction and restaurant labor, violations of visa and labor laws by his modeling agency, perpetration of an illegal pyramid scheme known as the Trump Network, and consumer fraud through the Trump Institute. The sheer breadth of illegalities is staggering.

But there was one crime in particular that, though it may have escaped notice during the campaign, overshadowed as it was by the litany of Trump’s other offenses, may prove to be a key to understanding Trump’s infatuation with Russia. In March 2015 the Treasury Department fined Trump’s now-bankrupt Taj Mahal Casino $10 million for non-compliance regarding money laundering laws, dating back to 2003, specifically for the absence of required controls and records. It was the largest penalty ever assessed against an American casino for such a crime. Interestingly, it was the second such transgression for the Taj Mahal. It was also penalized in 1998, for half a million dollars, for failure to report certain currency transactions. Why, after the initial penalty in 1998, wasn’t the Taj Mahal more careful to follow the law? Why continue to violate anti-money laundering statutes, for 12 years or more, even after you have been given a very clear understanding of what those laws entail, knowing that it might cost you millions more in fines? The only possible reasons would be an unbelievable pattern of sheer stupidity, (repeated year after year), amateur accounting practices (never corrected, year after year), or a unique propensity to launder dirty cash.

Those two instances appear to be, so far, the only times that a Trump business has been censured for violations of anti-money laundering laws. But there is evidence to suggest that Trump has engaged in money laundering on a larger scale. For one thing, a disproportionate allocation of the buyers of Trump properties, both in the US and abroad, have been wealthy Russians, at least some of whom paid well above market value, according to disclosed transaction documents. Trump sold condos, including in his marquee Trump Tower, to well-known members of Russian mafia organizations, according to public records listing the names of property acquirers and owners.

Moreover, several of Trump’s property developments appear to have been funded in large part by Russian oligarchs via shady LLCs with preposterously complicated structures, the most notorious of which is Bayrock LLC, run by ex-con and henchman Felix Sater. Bayrock put up the money to construct the luxury high-rise Trump SoHo, hundreds of millions of dollars of which likely sourced from Russian organized crime. An investigation by the Manhattan district attorney’s office into the mind-bogglingly convoluted web of funding sources was dropped in exchange for Trump’s refunding millions of dollars in deposits made by potential buyers alleging fraud.

Apparently neither the Treasury Department nor the Manhattan DA nor any other arm of law enforcement has undertaken a detailed audit of the transactions in question to investigate whether money laundering actually occurred. They stopped digging before they could answer that question. Instead, Trump’s high-priced lawyers got him off the hook with virtual slaps on the wrist, two fines for non-compliance with Treasury Department accounting requirements and an agreement that he refund money (without admitting any wrongdoing) that he had, allegedly, fraudulently obtained. Settlements are easier for strapped law enforcement agencies, easier than trying to bring down Trump and his corrupt empire. But money laundering is a felony under federal law, punishable by up to 20 years in prison.

An examination of his business record suggests that by the early aughts Trump may have needed to go through criminal rackets to get funding for his property development projects because his decades-long trail of business failures and bankruptcies virtually exhausted the willingness of banks and the public markets to do business with him. His accounting was often faulty, and blatantly so, based on an inflated valuation of the Trump brand and unrealistic assumptions regarding the size of the market for high-priced condos and hotel rooms. Though Trump was bad at math and incompetent as a manager, he had a talent for drawing attention to himself, especially with his lascivious lifestyle, which his growing fan base found devilishly amusing. But even as he managed to leverage his comic fame through McDonald’s and Pizza Hut commercials and licensing deals for the Trump brand, the only major real estate development project he was able to finance by the early aughts was his tower in Chicago. While that project was underway and while he was strapped for cash and desperate to keep up appearances, Trump pushed the Trump brand hard, lending his name to bottled water, freeze-packed steaks, vodka and a mortgage company. Each of those ventures failed.

But ever the showman, he finally scored with The Apprentice. He made millions in salary (though it’s highly unlikely he made anywhere close to the $213 million he claims), but more significantly he cultivated a bankable international image for himself that not only boosted the value of the Trump brand name for licensing purposes, but also provided a springboard from which to launch his presidential candidacy. Over ten seasons millions of Americans saw the inherently corrupt and cash-strapped Donald Trump portrayed as a spectacularly successful real estate developer and as a creative entrepreneur at the head of a luxury property empire that employed hundreds, a brilliant problem-solver, an insightful judge of character, a charming, charitable, engaging, humorous, witty, no-nonsense, boardroom-dominating leader and champion of the business world, ready to conquer any challenge and dispense of any dilly-dalliers who stood in the way. Who better to send to Washington to shake things up? The vast field of governors and senators competing with Trump for the Republican nomination did not stand a chance.

Unfortunately for Trump and his defenders and for the American people, reality television is not reality. And the harsh reality behind the false narratives and make-up and props of The Apprentice is that Donald Trump is a criminal who, as we now know, molests women, defrauds consumers, bilks investors and apparently cheats on his taxes, and whose business profits appear to come in part from laundering money for a gang of international thieves and drug dealers, though to the precise extent we do not yet know. His tax returns would shed light on that. Congress can and should subpoena them. Congress can also instruct the FBI to conduct an extensive audit of Trump’s business interests, starting with some of the more questionable, including the Trump SoHo. The New York Attorney General could also initiate an audit of Bayrock LLC and the funding sources of Trump SoHo.

No one doubts the wisdom of seeking to improve relations with Russia. We should engage them. We need to engage them. But it is clear that it is neither benign friendliness nor hard-nosed diplomacy for the sake of US national interests that are motivating Trump. The interests of the US are best served at present by holding Russia at arm’s length, by opposing its bullying behavior and lawlessness through economic sanctions and a show of military preparedness in conjunction with our allies and by supporting, both openly and covertly, human rights and democracy advocates within Russia, while holding out the promise of better relations for better behavior. To the American president and commander in chief, as Trump will soon be, it should not matter that certain Russians have been good for Trump’s business, for Russia as ruled by Putin is a clear threat to the national security of the United States, not only because Russian nuclear arms are pre-programmed to destroy us, but because Putin’s Russia seeks to undermine our democratic system, our way of life, the principles upon which we have thrived as a nation, the framework within which freedom has grown and prosperity has spread, far and wide across this land and the globe as a whole, the very rule of law embedded in our Constitution, revered as it is.

But there seems to be more at stake for Trump than just routine business interests. The recent revelation that the FBI sought a FISA warrant with respect to individuals involved in Trump’s presidential campaign indicates that investigators have probable cause to believe that at least one Trump campaign associate was an operative of a foreign power. That Trump’s designated national security advisor Michael Flynn, deluded as he is by demented conspiracy theories and white nationalist bigotry, was caught conducting five telephone calls with the Russian ambassador on the day that Obama announced sanctions on Russia for meddling in the US presidential election, combined with Trump’s tweet praising Putin for not responding in kind, would appear to indicate an actual conspiracy, one in favor of Putin and his interests at the expense of the United States and democratic principles.

Perhaps one cannot blame Donald Trump for presuming that the votes of 63 million voters had cleansed him of his many crimes, that his record had been expunged, that he was free and clear, that his ethical failings had been forgiven, that his legal challenges could be bought off, and that his arrestable offenses would simply fade away, for the fact is that he has always gotten away with it. But the voters, though they are ultimately responsible for the laws that are enacted, are not judge and jury. There are, and will continue to be, dozens of ongoing lawsuits and investigations regarding Donald Trump’s crimes and alleged crimes. The Attorney General of New York is investigating, courts of law throughout the country are weighing cases, the FBI is on the march and investigative reporters and foreign intelligence services are energized as never before. Yet many Republicans in Congress, like Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan and the ever-clueless Jason Chaffetz, are so extremely busy arranging deck chairs that they may not be able to make it to a lifeboat in time, even as the prospects for enacting their cherished agenda, alongside Donald Trump’s approval ratings, sink just as surely as the Titanic did in the frigid waters of the north Atlantic that fateful April morning in 1912.

At noon EDT on Friday, January 20, 2016, Donald Trump will be sworn in as 45th president of the United States. At 9:00 AM on Monday, January 23, or as soon thereafter as is practicable, Congress should convene a select committee to investigate Trump’s many complicated dealings with Russia and Russian businessmen for potential money laundering and tax fraud, with the first steps issuance of a subpoena of his personal and business tax returns and initiation of audits of the Taj Mahal and Trump SoHo. Among the compromising information that Putin and the KGB may have on Trump is documentation on illicit transactions. Investigations by the Senate Intelligence Committee and the Senate Armed Services Committee will shed light on Russian motivations to undermine the presidential and Congressional elections of 2016 and the extent of their operations. But that’s not enough. Let us not be distracted. Just as fundamental is an answer to the question of Trump’s motivations. What is he hiding? Let us follow the money. Let us get on with it.