NEW DELHI – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has assiduously courted Russian President Vladimir Putin, meeting with him more than a dozen times in four years. This month he hosted Putin in Tokyo and in his hometown of Nagato (famed for its onsen, or natural hot springs). But Abe’s courtship has so far yielded little for Japan, and much for Russia.
Abe’s diplomatic overtures to Putin are integral to his broader strategy to position Japan as a counterweight to China, and to rebalance power in Asia, where Japan, Russia, China, and India form a strategic quadrangle. Abe has already built a close relationship with India, and he sees improved relations with Russia – with which Japan never formally made peace after World War II – as the missing ingredient for a regional power equilibrium.
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But Abe’s trust-building efforts with Russia are not aimed only at checking Chinese aggression. He also wants Russia to return its southernmost Kuril Islands – a resource-rich area known as the Northern Territories in Japan – which the Soviet Union seized just after the United States dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. In exchange, Abe has offered economic aid, investments in Russia’s neglected Far East, and major energy deals.
Abe has, however, encountered several obstacles. For starters, Japan is a participant in the US-led sanctions that were imposed on Russia after it annexed Crimea in March 2014. These sanctions have pushed Russia closer to its traditional rival, China; and Putin has publicly identified the sanctions as a hindrance to concluding a peace treaty with Japan.
In response to Abe’s overtures, Putin has doggedly tried to drive a hard bargain. Russia has bolstered its defenses on the four disputed islands, and, just prior to this month’s summit, he told the Japanese media that the current territorial arrangement suits Russian interests. “We think that we have no territorial problems,” he said. “It’s Japan that thinks that it has a territorial problem with Russia.”
The US-led sanctions regime and low oil prices have battered the Russian economy, which is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2016. Thus, Putin is more reluctant than ever to offer territorial concessions, lest it tarnish his domestic image as a staunch defender of Russian national interests.
Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that Abe left the recent “onsen summit” with dashed hopes of resolving the territorial dispute, while Putin returned home with 68 new commercial accords. Many of the new agreements are symbolic, but some are substantive, including deals worth $2.5 billion and an agreement to set up a $1 billion bilateral-investment fund.
Under the latter agreement, Japan and Russia are supposed create a “special framework” for joint economic activities on the disputed islands. But the plan has already run into trouble. Peter Shelakhaev, a senior Russian official who leads the government’s Far East Investment and Export Agency, has indicated that there are legal hurdles to establishing such a framework, and that Japanese firms doing business on the Kurils would have to pay taxes to Russia. If Japan did that, however, it would effectively be recognizing Russia’s jurisdiction over the islands.
Abe has thus been denied the legacy that he sought, while Putin has succeeded in easing Russia’s international isolation. Abe was the first G7 leader to hold a summit with Putin after Russia annexed Crimea, and now Russia has won Japan’s economic cooperation, too.
Japan is the only G7 country that has a territorial dispute with Russia, and it is clearly more eager to reach a deal than the Kremlin is. But this has only strengthened Russia’s hand. While Japan has softened its position, and signaled that it may accept only a partial return of the islands, Russia has grown only more intransigent. After the recent summit, Abe revealed that Putin now seems to be reneging on a 1956 agreement between Japan and the Soviet Union, which stipulates that the smaller two of the four islands will be returned to Japan after a peace treaty is signed.
As it happens, this year marks the 60th anniversary of that joint declaration, which was widely viewed as a breakthrough at the time. The Kremlin is now suggesting that its commitment to fulfilling the declaration was conditional on Japan not joining any security alliance against Russia. And Putin has expressed concerns that the 1960 Japan-US Security Treaty would extend to the disputed islands if they were returned, thus allowing the US to establish a military presence there.
Japan is in no position to address Russia’s concerns. It cannot opt out of the US-led sanctions regime; and it cannot exempt the disputed Kurils from its security treaty with the US, especially now that it has been urging the US to provide an explicit commitment to defend the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, over which China claims sovereignty.
Putin, for his part, appears smugly content with his negotiating position. Not only did he arrive almost three hours late to the onsen summit, in keeping with his habit of leaving foreign leaders waiting; he also declined a Japanese government gift – a male companion for his native Japanese Akita dog, which Japan gave him in 2012.
There is little hope now that Abe will see tangible returns on the political capital he has invested in cultivating Putin. And Japan’s dilemma will only deepen. US President-elect Donald Trump’s desire to improve relations with Russia may give Abe leeway to continue wooing Putin; but if Russia gets the US in its corner, it won’t need Japan anymore.
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Comment Commented Dark Chocolate
In 1972 when the US end its occupation it decided to hand over the Diaoyutai (Diaoyu islands) then under its trust to Japan because of cold war politics. Immediately Taiwan protested. Taiwan then was recognized as China. It was until then fully expected that the islands will be return to China. The blatant disregard of history even made Chinese Americans (both from Hong Kong and Taiwan), who is a low profile community and usually kept to themselves demonstrated in many cities across North America. Eventually the US government under pressure from Taipei relented and make it clear that the US is not handing over the sovereignty of the islands to Japan. Read more
Comment Commented j. von Hettlingen
Brahma Chellaney highlights the challenge Japan might have to grapple with - facing China on its own - should the US and Russia move closer to each other. Trump's campaign pledge on scraping America's commitments and treaties with its allies had rattled Japan, fearing an end to its 1960 security treaty with the US. At one point, Trump suggested that Japan and South Korea should consider acquiring nuclear weapons to defend themselves. Nine days after the election Shinzo Abe - the first foreign leader to meet Trump - flew to New York to meet him.
Last week Putin made a two-day visit to Japan, his first in 11 years. Abe invested much political capital in hosting the Russian guest. Expectations were high that a peace treaty be signed 60 years after the end of the war and a negotiation be revived for the return of at least two of the four islands that Japan calls the Northern Territories, and Russia calls the Kuril Islands, which Japanese consider grabbed by Russia at the very end of World War II. Unfortunately "Abe’s courtship has so far yielded little for Japan, and much for Russia."
The author describes "Abe’s diplomatic overtures to Putin /as/ integral to his broader strategy to position Japan as a counterweight to China, and to rebalance power in Asia, where Japan, Russia, China, and India form a strategic quadrangle." Abe had already built a good relationship with Narendra Modi, while the latter was chief minister in India's fast-growing state, Gujarat. But he still has problem winning Putin's trust, because Abe has been a staunch supporter of international sanctions against Russia, following its annexation of Crimea in 2014. Isolated, Putin turned to Beijing and concluded energy deals worth over $200 billion.
Observers say Putin has emerged triumphant after his Japan visit, because Abe was the first G7 leader to grant him a state visit, bringing him in from the cold since the landgrab in Crimea, "and now Russia has won Japan’s economic cooperation, too." But Abe has been snubbed by Putin, who said Russia had no territorial dispute with Japan. But “it’s Japan that thinks that it has a territorial problem with Russia.”
Putin arrived in Japan over two hours late, without a warning and for no obvious official reason. An embarrassed Abe was shown on TV waiting in the rain, and filling in the time by visiting his late father’s grave. Putin also refused a highly symbolic gift from Abe – a male companion to his Japanese dog Yume. He even refused Abe’s courtesy invitation to enjoy the local food and “relax” in the hot springs after intense negotiations, with the unequivocal excuse - “best not to get too tired.”
Abe says Putin "seems to be reneging on a 1956 agreement between Japan and the Soviet Union, which stipulates that the smaller two of the four islands will be returned to Japan after a peace treaty is signed." In the 1980s Russia had signaled its readiness to consider the return of the two small islands, for the right “price.” But the other two were clearly off limits. In recent years the Kremlin has hinted that it could comply with the agreement, on the condition that "Japan not joining any security alliance against Russia. And Putin has expressed concerns that the 1960 Japan-US Security Treaty would extend to the disputed islands if they were returned, thus allowing the US to establish a military presence there."
The author says "Japan is in no position to address Russia’s concerns" - scraping the sanctions and ensuring that the disputed islands be exempted from the 1960 security treaty. On the contrary Japan needs the US to be more engaged in helping defend the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands against China's claim over their sovereignty. He says if Trump and Putin get along, Abe wouldn't be of any use to Putin and Trump would most unlikely stand by Japan against China or North Korea. Abe should take a long breath and look whether Trump would survive his first year in office. The year 2016 has shown that much is unpredictable - even the future development in China and Russia. By the way Japan can always reach out to the EU for partnership and alliance. Read more
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