Nate Silver Snaps Back at Conway: Trump’s Win Not Quite a ‘Historic’ Landslide
Nate Silver took a look at exactly how “historic” Donald Trump‘s landslide was today after Kellyanne Conway tweeted this earlier tonight:
306. Landslide. Blowout. Historic. https://t.co/ObYZDo8cBq
— Kellyanne Conway (@KellyannePolls) November 28, 2016
Silver responded thusly on Twitter:
Actually way below average for a winner's total:
1984—525
1980—489
1988—426
1996—379
1992—370
2008—365
2012—332
*2016—306*
2004—286
2000—271 https://t.co/C9z8I9jPYZ— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 28, 2016
Trump won in the 44th biggest landslide out of the past 54 elections. Pretty epic. https://t.co/TFouy56v2A
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 28, 2016
In a post on FiveThirtyEight, Silver breaks down every single electoral college result in U.S. presidential history, saying, “In a historical context, Trump’s Electoral College performance is decidedly below-average. So it’s a bit Orwellian to call it a ‘landslide’ or a ‘blowout.'”
In the list of 54, as Silver notes, Trump is at 44. For reference, President Obama is at both 30 and 35 (for 2008 and 2012 respectively). But Trump is ahead of the last Republican president, George W. Bush, who’s at 52 for 2000 and 50 for ’04.
[image via screengrab]
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