At the county level, the correlation between education levels and the vote shift from '12 to '16 is quite high (about .6).
These quickie studies linking heroin deaths with Trump voting are likely making too much from a spurious correlation.
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So any indicator correlated with education will be correlated with the presidential vote. Even a quick study ought to control for that.
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Also, whiter counties shifted more toward Trump. So anything correlated with whiteness—heroin use?—will also be correlated with POTUS vote.
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@NateSilver538 Running Instagram accounts for their Golden Retrievers.
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@NateSilver538 I don't know. I'd imagine the primacy most heroin addicts lives is electoral politics. -
@NateSilver538 When I saw "quickie studies" I assumed it was about lunch break sex. -
@NateSilver538 I assume you've seen this: pic.twitter.com/zySIRnNjO4#R#Python -
@NateSilver538 It's coming into the holiday season, and that is fraught with issues for people, so how do they differentiate season v. Trump -
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@NateSilver538 people have been dying at a high rate from heroin in Ohio for about 4 years now. Correlation is Rx pain medication -
@tmar8@NateSilver538 absolutely Tmar. We will have plenty of other crap to blame Trump for. The pharma industry owns this one.
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@NateSilver538 Or True, True, and related by a common history of GOP state governments that under invest in public health -
@Dre_Yonce@NateSilver538 That was the joke lol -
@NateSilver538 Is this more click-bait Nate? Heroin deaths are a plague. Whatever might be causing them should be taken rather seriously. -
@NateSilver538 1st thing my in-laws mentioned in post-election defense of their Trump vote was about rise of opioid use. Anecdotal but... -
@NateSilver538 I don't care. Let them all OD. -
@NateSilver538 like the ones that "correlate" organic food sales to rising autism rates. -
@NateSilver538 Ignored, desperate people vote for change? Who'd a thunk it? -
So cue similar "analysis" that links driving Ford pickups & using Weber grills vs
#BigGreenEgg@NateSilver538! -
@NateSilver538 Find this Pub Health Index more compelling, though quickie study and covariate concerns still apply:http://econ.st/2g0YfCT
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