What this election cycle imo has been sorely missing is some rational analysis and detachment from the tribalistic nature of the election. Here's my attempt at that.
We all know that if a certain block of 500+ voters in FL changed their votes, Al Gore would have won the election. Now 2016 isn't that close but it isn't too far off either.
Can you come up with the fewest # of votes to flip from HRC -> DJT so that HRC wins?
How about in previous elections?
My estimate: ~110,000 votes flip the election. Sources: AP. With 99% reporting in all states, this is going to be quite accurate now.
PA: 68,000
MI: 13,000
WI: 27,000
Total: 108,000
Gain in electoral votes: 20+16+10=46.
New result: DJT 260 : 278 HRC
In 2004, the election came down, famously to OH (20 EV). GWB won OH by 128,000 votes. If those had flipped, we would have:
GWB 266 : 271 Kerry
[–]fwhx [スコア非表示] (0子コメント)