PredictWise reflects David Rothschild’s academic, peer-reviewed, research into prediction markets, along with polling and online/social media data. The backbone of predictions on this site are market-based, generated from real-money markets that trade contracts on upcoming events. While we have great respect for: polls and online/social media data, the topline predictions reflect data that are more accurate, flexible, and update in real-time.
PredictWise is run wholly by David Rothschild an innovative, and stylish economist at Microsoft Research in New York City, but should in no way be construed as representing the views or predictions of Microsoft or any of its entities. Great piece about David in New York Times and He talks polling error in New York Times.