@jshkatz this is very neat. What are the chances you could add the betting markets? Be interesting to see where they are through everything
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@jshkatz nice- gganimate? -
@drob indeed -
@jshkatz looks great. I'm giving a talk on it Nov 18 at NYC's PlotCon, hope you're attending!https://plotcon.plot.ly
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@jshkatz very cool -
@jshkatz Got a larger version of this? -
@jshkatz@AkinUnver Trump's chances stand somewhere between 1% and 25%. Hard to know what to make of that. -
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@jshkatz@DrewLinzer and there it is, 538 as clickbait. - その他の返信を表示
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@foglandia@jshkatz@DrewLinzer No kidding, Nate probably had Obama as a higher favorite than HRC at this point in his 2012 predictions. - その他の返信を表示
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@merkin_muffly@foglandia@jshkatz@DrewLinzer Since, Obama had a much higher share of the vote than HRC that makes sense ? -
@merkin_muffly@foglandia@jshkatz@DrewLinzer The point is that 3rd party vote generally collapses. -
@merkin_muffly@foglandia@jshkatz@DrewLinzer But it hasn't collapsed enough yet, so its a big source of uncertainty. -
@merkin_muffly@foglandia@jshkatz Nate's the only one who's separately modeling Johnson, figures his numbers would be different
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@jshkatz nice gif bro -
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@jshkatz@Nate_Cohn 538, lmao, guess that's what happens when you let every verifiably shit poll into your analytics, like LA Times. - その他の返信を表示
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@jshkatz The election isn't volatile, but 538 is.
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