1. President

    Updated 27 min. ago

  2. Senate

    Updated 50 min. ago

  3. Analysis

    Updated 2 hours ago

  1. President

    Updated 27 min. ago

  2. Senate

    Updated 50 min. ago

  3. Analysis

    Updated 2 hours ago

Who will win the presidency?

Who’d Who would win the presidency today?

Chance of winning

FiveThirtyEight

Hillary Clinton

24.4%

Donald Trump

75.6%

FiveThirtyEight
AL AK AZ AR CA CO FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA SC SD TN TX UT VA WV WI WY VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC

Key

50%

60

70

80

90

Clinton

Trump

Tipping points

Electoral votes

Electoral votes

Donald Trump

Trump

312.4

Hillary Clinton

Clinton

224.4

Evan McMullin

McMullin

1.1

Gary Johnson

Johnson

0.0

Popular vote

Donald Trump

Trump

49.2%

Hillary Clinton

Clinton

44.5%

Gary Johnson

Johnson

4.8%

Other

Other

1.6%

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.

June 8 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 0 25 50 75 100% Election Nov. 8 ▼ End of conventions GOP Dem 1st Debates 2nd 3rd <0.1% Johnson <0.1% Johnson 24.4% Clinton 24.4% Clinton 75.6% Trump 75.6% Trump

Key

Average

80% chance of falling in range

Pretty scary, right?

It may be halloween (or soon thereafter), but this terrifying image is not unreasonable. As we near Election Day and refresh poll sites like the real version of this website, consider taking some action and donating a few extra bucks below. It's the least we can all do to stop the image above from becoming a reality.

(Obviously a parody of FiveThirtyEight. Sorry, Nate.)