You might think that my New York Times piece on polarization has been eclipsed by Friday’s Comey/email hysterics. On the contrary. It as an opportunity to use what we have learned this season to predict what happens next.
Here are some starting points:
- For twenty years, polarization has made voters increasingly emotional and less likely to change their views. Donald Trump represents the culmination of this trend.
- On time scales of a week, journalists get bored with a storyline, and look for ways that the trend is being violated. Until Friday, the developing story was “Clinton is coasting to victory.”
- Whichever major party you support, your optimal strategy as a citizen is to focus on knife-edge cases, i.e. cases where the outcome is in doubt.
From these, I reach the following conclusions:
- The national race will not change meaningfully. This is not a story that changes anyone’s mind. Maybe the margin (national or Meta) between the two candidates will move by 1 percentage point when aggregated…2 points max. It doesn’t change the high likelihood of a Clinton win.
- Journalists and pundits will continue to feed hysterics by fussing over the Comey story. They may even attempt to use polling evidence to justify their coverage. However, note that national polls had already tightened by 1-2 percentage points, even before Comeygate.
- Keep your eye on the ball, which is downticket. In the Senate, key races in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, and North Carolina will determine control of that chamber. Small changes mean a lot: early voting, get-out-the-vote, bad weather…maybe even the Comey story.
Also, in the House, the Republican majority will narrow, but we don’t know by how much. Apply your energies accordingly. This District Finder App will find a competitive House district near you.
Oh, I’ll go out on a limb on one last item: there is time for one more weird twist in the campaign. Considering the life cycle of journalists’ hidden thought processes, I’ll say it is Donald Trump’s turn for the next adverse story.
From HuffPollster
Republican Party Favorable 34%/Unfavorable 57%
Democratic Party Favorable 46%/Unfavorable 48%
These numbers have been pretty stable since March. Pair this info with Obama’s favoriability ratings.
We already have one piece of evidence that the race will not change significantly, and that’s in the betting markets. Clinton maintains her advantage there. I’m thinking that by Tuesday or Wednesday we’ll have evidence to support your hypothesis.
Most of Trump’s poll creep in the last week was Republicans coming home. To roost, I imagine.
Obama’s job approval numbers keep going up and up, Sam.
Shouldn’t Hillary’s numbers follow that trend, especially considering how closely they are campaigning together?
Will you watch weather forecasts for battleground states? Polls are one thing, getting the voters out another.
cheers,
norbert
An alternative hypothesis:
Most polls find Trump attracting fewer Republican voters than usual, and likely voter screens are unusually kind to the Dems this year. This means that, precisely because of polarization, Trump has some low hanging fruit to pick up, and the Comey story, simply by virtue of making Republicans (and Republican-leaning independents) feel Trump’s chances are higher, could create more than 2% of a slide in the margin (almost entirely coming from Trump’s numbers going up, rather than Clinton’s down).
Hi Dr. Wang I am curious do you know of a polling outfit called people’s pundit daily? are their projections really as accurate as they say they are?