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Poll-Based Map | Pro Forecasts
2016 Presidential Simulation (Clinton vs. Trump)
As you land on this page, a simulated election will be conducted, with all states colored red or blue in about 15 seconds. Each run of the election simulator will populate the electoral map based on a calculated probability in each state.
Take a look at our Battleground 270 page to see the results of 10,000 elections run nightly. While perhaps not as much fun as doing individual simulations, looking at aggregated results can provide a better perspective on the range of plausible election outcomes.
Random
Poll Closing Times
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| ME 3 | 1 | |
| NE 3 | 1 | 1 |
New for 2016: The simulator is no longer coded in Flash, so will work on your mobile device. Results can now split Maine & Nebraska. Finally, you can choose to populate the map randomly or more East-to-West, based on actual poll closing times.
The probabilities are calculated and updated based on recent polling. Where polling is outdated or unavailable, we look back to 2012 actual and/or consider pundit projections. Those probabilities reflect the frequency of victory in a state. For example, if Clinton has an 80% chance of winning Minnesota, she will, in the long run, win 80% of the simulations conducted. Some uncontested states (e.g., Wyoming) will always yield the same result.
The simulator is not a predictor of the election. It provides a range of electoral outcomes that are plausible if the state polls are accurate and if each state were a fully independent event. While each state is, in theory, a separate election, the reality is that there are usually correlations. As a result, this model underplays the likelihood of toss-up states breaking heavily for one candidate or the other.
Amaze your friends with trivial knowledge: There are over two quadrillion (15 zeros) ways that the U.S. map can be colored red or blue.
The calculation is 251, where we have 51 locations (50 states + DC) and two possible outcomes in each location. The number would be exponentially larger still if we included the possibility of a split in Maine/Nebraska or 3rd parties. Of course, with many states not competitive in November, the number of plausible map combinations is much smaller.
Headlines
Electoral College Projections as of October 26th
The current Election Day forecast from 14 organizationsTrump Leads in Two New Texas Polls
Trump leads by 3 in a University of Texas poll, consistent with most other recent polls. An American-Statesman poll has him up by 7State of the Race in 3 Maps
The current consensus of professional forecasters, as well as maps based on current pollingElectoral College Projections as of October 21st
Several forecasts have been modified since our last update just two days agoElectoral College Projections as of October 19th
Where the race stands on the morning of the final debate from the viewpoint of a number of forecasters
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