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Guys im getting fucking terrified (self.EnoughTrumpSpam)

thenomeer が 投稿

The polls don't look like they used to... Donald trump is actually gaining ground and in the process of flipping some states. In all honesty, what are his chances of winning? sigh I weep for humanity

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[–]Jazzhandsjr 4ポイント5ポイント  (1子コメント)

Everything in reading says theres a natural tightening at this point.

I'm not too worried.

[–]n0t_5hure [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

I find it useful to look at the betting markets, which historically have been pretty accurate, and involve people putting their money where there mouth is. Predictwise aggregates this information nicely.

[–]penguinseed 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

I remember 4 years ago the polls tightened right up the election and Romney still got his ass handed to him. I wouldn't sweat it too much, if anything this motivates people to go out and vote instead of sitting at home thinking we have this in the bag

[–]braneworld 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Yeah Romney VS Obama was waaay closer for the entire election. Obama had like a 2pt lead in the polls at election day and still one in a landslide.

Just basic demographics is going to make it extremely hard for Trump to win. He doesn't even have full support from his own party. Women and minorities far outnumber "angry old white people".

[–]princessnymphiaDelete Your Account 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Please don't get yourself hyped up. Hillary is doing better than Obama did, she's the one whose putting states into play, not Trump. Be alert, but don't stress.

[–]GhostScout 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I understand... I am too. But, time is on our side. I really doubt he can flip enough states to get to 270 with only 10 & a half days left.

[–]BeigeListed 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

He doesnt stand a chance. Ignore the polls and the speculation and the idiots projecting a Trump win. He will NEVER become the President.

[–]Petorie 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

He's flipping normally deep red states back to slightly leaning red from blue. He currently has less than a 20% chance of winning.

[–]columbo222 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

He currently has less than a 20% chance of winning.

That's an unacceptably massive chance given the stakes...

[–]braneworld 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Most of the swing states have started voting already. In theory the race will be over election day.

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    [–]thenomeer[S] 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

    Also, I'm just going to get this poorly written paragraph/ rant (I'm in the middle of class) off my chest

    Some GOP supporters hold their political idealogy to the same standard as their religion. There is absolutely no reasoning with them, and it pisses me the fuck off when they say "liberalism" is a mental disorder. When they hear a single criticism of hillary, they take it fact, even if there is no evidence to support said fact. I am not claiming that "liberalism" is the correct political stance to have. America is a democracy; it's what makes it so great. The problem stems from the fact most of the GOP supporters lack the understanding of what this country was originally founded on: secularity. Whether you believe it or not, our founding fathers were not men of God. The positions they held are easily misconstrued by ignorant people who think they know what's right. It just boggles my mind that some people can be supportive of a candidate who has clearly shown he is not capable of running this country.

    [–]VaesAndalus 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

    I am as well. HRC's opponent is a mentally disabled pedophile who loves Russia and doesn't know what the nuclear triad is. I'm only slightly exaggerating with that description, but WHY THE FUCK IS THIS CLOSE? It seemed like America woke up after the 3rd debate and we are right back to be gaslit.....

    [–]HuckleberryFN2187 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

    I suspect that Nate Silver is allowing for fatter tails in his modeling now than he was in 2012. Another fact is that most Republicans are going to see the letter R and go with that.

    I'd also add that Trump's friendliest pollsters (Rasmussen, Remington) have very strange numbers on black support for Trump. It's a much more extreme statistical outlier than the overall polls themselves.