Who will win the presidency?
Who’d Who would win the presidency today?
Hillary Clinton
84.6%
Donald Trump
15.4%
Electoral votes
Electoral votes
Hillary Clinton
Clinton
332.4
Donald Trump
Trump
204.5
Evan McMullin
McMullin
1.0
Gary Johnson
Johnson
0.1
Popular vote
Hillary Clinton
Clinton
49.5%
Donald Trump
Trump
43.5%
Gary Johnson
Johnson
5.4%
Other
Other
1.6%
# How the forecast has changed
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.
Our latest coverage
# Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 10,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
Key
Average
80% chance outcome falls in this range
# It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes
Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it.
Key
50%
60
70
80
90
Clinton's chances
Trump's chances
One electoral vote
# The winding path to 270 electoral votes
A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are farthest left, Trump’s farthest right — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.
A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.
One electoral vote
# How much each state matters
Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner.
Tipping-point chance
Florida | 16.1% |
Pennsylvania | 12.5% |
North Carolina | 9.5% |
Colorado | 9.4% |
Michigan | 8.4% |
Wisconsin | 7.6% |
Ohio | 4.8% |
Virginia | 4.6% |
Minnesota | 4.4% |
Nevada | 4.1% |
Arizona | 3.5% |
New Hampshire | 2.4% |
Georgia | 2.0% |
Iowa | 1.7% |
New Mexico | 1.3% |
Texas | 1.2% |
Oregon | 1.0% |
New Jersey | 0.8% |
Washington | 0.7% |
Maine 2nd District | 0.4% |
Missouri | 0.3% |
South Dakota | 0.3% |
Rhode Island | 0.3% |
Alaska | 0.3% |
Utah | 0.3% |
Nebraska 2nd District | 0.3% |
Maine 1st District | 0.3% |
Connecticut | 0.2% |
Maine - statewide | 0.2% |
Delaware | 0.2% |
California | 0.2% |
Hawaii | 0.1% |
Montana | 0.1% |
Mississippi | 0.1% |
Idaho | 0.1% |
South Carolina | <0.1% |
Indiana | <0.1% |
Kansas | <0.1% |
Tennessee | <0.1% |
Nebraska 1st District | <0.1% |
Kentucky | <0.1% |
Louisiana | <0.1% |
North Dakota | <0.1% |
Nebraska - statewide | <0.1% |
Illinois | <0.1% |
Alabama | <0.1% |
Arkansas | <0.1% |
New York | <0.1% |
Oklahoma | <0.1% |
West Virginia | <0.1% |
Massachusetts | <0.1% |
Vermont | <0.1% |
Maryland | <0.1% |
Wyoming | <0.1% |
Nebraska 3rd District | <0.1% |
District of Columbia | <0.1% |
Voter power index
Nevada | 5.1 |
Colorado | 4.5 |
New Hampshire | 4.5 |
Wisconsin | 3.3 |
Pennsylvania | 2.9 |
North Carolina | 2.7 |
Florida | 2.3 |
Michigan | 2.3 |
New Mexico | 2.3 |
Minnesota | 1.9 |
Arizona | 1.9 |
Maine 2nd District | 1.5 |
Virginia | 1.5 |
Iowa | 1.4 |
Nebraska 2nd District | 1.4 |
Alaska | 1.2 |
South Dakota | 1.2 |
Ohio | 1.1 |
Rhode Island | 1.0 |
Maine 1st District | 0.9 |
Oregon | 0.7 |
Georgia | 0.7 |
Delaware | 0.5 |
Hawaii | 0.4 |
Maine - statewide | 0.4 |
Utah | 0.3 |
Montana | 0.3 |
New Jersey | 0.3 |
Washington | 0.3 |
Vermont | 0.3 |
Idaho | 0.2 |
Nebraska 1st District | 0.2 |
Texas | 0.2 |
Connecticut | 0.2 |
Missouri | 0.2 |
Mississippi | 0.1 |
South Carolina | <0.1 |
Nebraska - statewide | <0.1 |
Kentucky | <0.1 |
Nebraska 3rd District | <0.1 |
Indiana | <0.1 |
California | <0.1 |
Illinois | <0.1 |
North Dakota | <0.1 |
New York | <0.1 |
Kansas | <0.1 |
Tennessee | <0.1 |
Louisiana | <0.1 |
Alabama | <0.1 |
Arkansas | <0.1 |
Oklahoma | <0.1 |
West Virginia | <0.1 |
Massachusetts | <0.1 |
Maryland | <0.1 |
Wyoming | <0.1 |
District of Columbia | <0.1 |
# What to expect from the Electoral College
In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.
Swipe for state forecasts →
# Who’s winning the popular vote
Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.
Key
Average
80% chance outcome falls in this range
# Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios
Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.
| Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes | 0.6% |
| Electoral College 269-269 tie | 0.3% |
| Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt | 4.6% |
| Clinton wins popular vote | 89.9% |
| Trump wins popular vote | 10.1% |
| Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College | 5.7% |
| Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College | 0.4% |
| Johnson wins at least one electoral vote | 0.5% |
| McMullin wins at least one electoral vote | 16.5% |
| Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote | 43.9% |
| Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote | 1.4% |
| Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin | 18.9% |
| Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin | 0.2% |
| Map exactly the same as in 2012 | 0.4% |
| Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 | 82.2% |
| Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 | 67.6% |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports.
Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Matthew Conlen, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. Candidate portraits by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Hillary Clinton
70.2%
Donald Trump
29.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
87.0%
Donald Trump
13.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
67.8%
Donald Trump
32.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
86.8%
Donald Trump
13.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
89.8%
Donald Trump
10.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
87.5%
Donald Trump
12.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
54.1%
Donald Trump
45.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
92.0%
Donald Trump
8.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
89.1%
Donald Trump
10.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
70.9%
Donald Trump
29.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
51.5%
Donald Trump
48.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
86.2%
Donald Trump
13.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
29.1%
Donald Trump
70.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
50.8%
Donald Trump
49.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
93.2%
Donald Trump
6.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
14.0%
Donald Trump
86.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
96.3%
Donald Trump
3.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
98.0%
Donald Trump
2.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
97.8%
Donald Trump
2.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
15.8%
Donald Trump
84.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
11.6%
Donald Trump
88.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
96.2%
Donald Trump
3.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
22.9%
Donald Trump
77.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
8.0%
Donald Trump
75.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
97.7%
Donald Trump
2.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
86.9%
Donald Trump
13.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
*Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
95.3%
Donald Trump
4.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
>99.9%
Donald Trump
<0.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
99.3%
Donald Trump
0.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
11.2%
Donald Trump
88.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
5.9%
Donald Trump
94.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
0.9%
Donald Trump
99.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
12.7%
Donald Trump
87.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
98.3%
Donald Trump
1.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
99.3%
Donald Trump
0.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
1.9%
Donald Trump
98.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
10.5%
Donald Trump
89.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
99.9%
Donald Trump
0.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
3.7%
Donald Trump
96.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
*Nebraska awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2District 3
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
6.5%
Donald Trump
93.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
8.2%
Donald Trump
91.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
99.8%
Donald Trump
0.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
>99.9%
Donald Trump
<0.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
1.7%
Donald Trump
98.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
0.6%
Donald Trump
99.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
0.6%
Donald Trump
99.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
>99.9%
Donald Trump
<0.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
1.2%
Donald Trump
98.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
0.2%
Donald Trump
99.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
Senate forecast
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
3.1%
Donald Trump
96.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Hillary Clinton
0.4%
Donald Trump
99.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
National polls
Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.
Our latest coverage
From polls to an adjusted average
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.
Updates
We update our forecast with new polls as they are released. Here are the polls we added in each update. So far we’ve collected 3,195 state and national polls.
Key
= New
A = ALL ADULTS
RV = REGISTERED VOTERS
LV = LIKELY VOTERS
V = VOTERS
Wednesday, Oct. 26, at 8:58 a.m. EDT
| DATES ▲ ▼ | POLLSTER ▲ ▼ | GRADE | SAMPLE | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | McMullin | LEADER | ADJUSTED LEADER | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | National | Oct. 23-25 | Rasmussen/ | C+ | 1,500 | LV | 44% | 43% | 4% | Clinton +1 | Clinton +2 | |
Wednesday, Oct. 26, at 8:39 a.m.Clinton 84.3%Trump 15.7% | ||||||||||||
| • | Florida | Oct. 21-24 | Selzer & Company | A+ | 805 | LV | 43% | 45% | 4% | Trump +2 | Trump +1 | |
| • | National | Oct. 19-25 | USC Dornsife/ | 3,145 | LV | 44% | 45% | Trump +1 | Clinton +4 | |||
| • | National | Oct. 20-25 | IBD/ | A- | 921 | LV | 42% | 41% | 8% | Clinton +1 | Clinton +3 | |
| • | National | Oct. 22-24 | ABC News/ | A+ | 1,119 | LV | 49% | 40% | 5% | Clinton +9 | Clinton +8 | |
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 11:20 p.m.Clinton 85.0%Trump 14.9% | ||||||||||||
| • | Florida | Oct. 20-24 | SurveyUSA | A | 1,251 | LV | 48% | 45% | 2% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +3 | |
| • | Montana | Oct. 3-10 | Montana State University Billings | B+ | 590 | A | 27% | 43% | 7% | Trump +16 | Trump +15 | |
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 8:14 p.m.Clinton 84.8%Trump 15.2% | ||||||||||||
| • | Florida | Oct. 19 | Associated Industries of Florida | 1,000 | LV | 44% | 41% | 4% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +2 | ||
| • | Wisconsin | Oct. 18-20 | McLaughlin & Associates | C- | 600 | LV | 48% | 43% | 4% | Clinton +5 | Clinton +6 | |
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 7:49 p.m.Clinton 85.3%Trump 14.6% | ||||||||||||
| • | Oregon | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 470 | LV | 50% | 32% | 10% | Clinton +18 | Clinton +18 | |
| • | Utah | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 787 | LV | 29% | 33% | 7% | 29% | Trump +4 | Trump +3 |
| • | Washington | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 546 | LV | 50% | 34% | 11% | Clinton +16 | Clinton +16 | |
| • | Ohio | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,627 | LV | 40% | 46% | 8% | Trump +6 | Trump +6 | |
| • | Michigan | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,392 | LV | 43% | 39% | 9% | Clinton +4 | Clinton +4 | |
| • | North Carolina | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 816 | LV | 48% | 42% | 7% | Clinton +6 | Clinton +6 | |
| • | California | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,492 | LV | 53% | 31% | 8% | Clinton +22 | Clinton +22 | |
| • | Georgia | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,906 | LV | 44% | 46% | 7% | Trump +2 | Trump +2 | |
| • | Virginia | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 382 | LV | 48% | 39% | 8% | Clinton +9 | Clinton +9 | |
| • | Pennsylvania | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,709 | LV | 46% | 43% | 6% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +3 | |
| • | New Jersey | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 683 | LV | 52% | 36% | 4% | Clinton +16 | Clinton +16 | |
| • | Florida | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 2,243 | LV | 47% | 44% | 5% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +3 | |
| • | Alabama | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 346 | LV | 37% | 51% | 8% | Trump +14 | Trump +14 | |
| • | Wisconsin | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 316 | LV | 43% | 42% | 10% | Clinton +1 | Clinton +1 | |
| • | New Hampshire | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 394 | LV | 49% | 37% | 10% | Clinton +12 | Clinton +12 | |
| • | New York | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 958 | LV | 58% | 30% | 5% | Clinton +28 | Clinton +28 | |
| • | South Carolina | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,582 | LV | 43% | 46% | 6% | Trump +3 | Trump +3 | |
| • | Kentucky | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 297 | LV | 29% | 61% | 7% | Trump +32 | Trump +32 | |
| • | Connecticut | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 428 | LV | 51% | 36% | 8% | Clinton +15 | Clinton +15 | |
| • | Iowa | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,038 | LV | 40% | 45% | 8% | Trump +5 | Trump +5 | |
| • | Kansas | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,468 | LV | 37% | 48% | 10% | Trump +11 | Trump +11 | |
| • | Colorado | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,318 | LV | 44% | 38% | 12% | Clinton +6 | Clinton +6 | |
| • | Montana | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 410 | LV | 35% | 51% | 9% | Trump +16 | Trump +16 | |
| • | Nevada | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 294 | LV | 44% | 45% | 9% | Trump +1 | Trump +1 | |
| • | Missouri | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 599 | LV | 36% | 50% | 9% | Trump +14 | Trump +14 | |
| • | Alaska | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 388 | LV | 29% | 47% | 17% | Trump +18 | Trump +18 | |
| • | Arizona | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 410 | LV | 40% | 41% | 13% | Trump +1 | Trump +1 | |
| • | Minnesota | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 452 | LV | 48% | 34% | 9% | Clinton +14 | Clinton +14 | |
| • | Illinois | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 927 | LV | 52% | 34% | 7% | Clinton +18 | Clinton +18 | |
| • | Texas | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,764 | LV | 39% | 47% | 8% | Trump +8 | Trump +8 | |
| • | Indiana | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 584 | LV | 35% | 48% | 13% | Trump +13 | Trump +13 | |
| • | Idaho | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 351 | LV | 29% | 50% | 15% | Trump +21 | Trump +21 | |
| • | Massachusetts | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 318 | LV | 61% | 29% | 6% | Clinton +32 | Clinton +32 | |
| • | Tennessee | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 477 | LV | 38% | 48% | 8% | Trump +10 | Trump +10 | |
| • | Maryland | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 783 | LV | 61% | 27% | 6% | Clinton +34 | Clinton +34 | |
| • | Nebraska | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,546 | LV | 33% | 51% | 10% | Trump +18 | Trump +18 | |
| • | West Virginia | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,140 | LV | 28% | 61% | 7% | Trump +33 | Trump +33 | |
| • | Louisiana | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 324 | LV | 39% | 51% | 6% | Trump +12 | Trump +12 | |
| • | New Mexico | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 470 | LV | 41% | 33% | 22% | Clinton +8 | Clinton +8 | |
| • | Arkansas | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 1,291 | LV | 32% | 54% | 8% | Trump +22 | Trump +22 | |
| • | Oklahoma | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 423 | LV | 32% | 57% | 8% | Trump +25 | Trump +25 | |
| • | Mississippi | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 589 | LV | 43% | 51% | 2% | Trump +8 | Trump +8 | |
| • | Delaware | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 444 | LV | 53% | 34% | 9% | Clinton +19 | Clinton +19 | |
| • | Maine | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 533 | LV | 50% | 36% | 6% | Clinton +14 | Clinton +14 | |
| • | District of Columbia | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 457 | LV | 88% | 5% | 3% | Clinton +83 | Clinton +83 | |
| • | Hawaii | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 388 | LV | 50% | 34% | 9% | Clinton +16 | Clinton +16 | |
| • | Vermont | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 2,063 | LV | 53% | 24% | 12% | Clinton +29 | Clinton +29 | |
| • | South Dakota | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 331 | LV | 30% | 52% | 13% | Trump +22 | Trump +22 | |
| • | Wyoming | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 311 | LV | 25% | 57% | 11% | Trump +32 | Trump +32 | |
| • | North Dakota | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 882 | LV | 30% | 50% | 14% | Trump +20 | Trump +20 | |
| • | Rhode Island | Oct. 17-23 | SurveyMonkey | C- | 422 | LV | 48% | 37% | 8% | Clinton +11 | Clinton +11 | |
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 4:41 p.m.Clinton 85.4%Trump 14.6% | ||||||||||||
| • | Oregon | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 470 | LV | 48% | 24% | 6% | Clinton +24 | Clinton +24 | |
| • | Utah | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 281 | LV | 27% | 22% | 11% | Clinton +5 | Clinton +4 | |
| • | Washington | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 594 | LV | 46% | 25% | 7% | Clinton +20 | Clinton +20 | |
| • | Ohio | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 865 | LV | 34% | 39% | 5% | Trump +5 | Trump +6 | |
| • | Michigan | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 637 | LV | 37% | 28% | 8% | Clinton +9 | Clinton +8 | |
| • | North Carolina | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 648 | LV | 38% | 38% | 6% | Tie | Trump +1 | |
| • | California | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 1,384 | LV | 48% | 27% | 6% | Clinton +21 | Clinton +21 | |
| • | Georgia | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 551 | LV | 33% | 42% | 7% | Trump +9 | Trump +9 | |
| • | Virginia | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 644 | LV | 41% | 31% | 6% | Clinton +10 | Clinton +9 | |
| • | Pennsylvania | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 555 | LV | 37% | 36% | 8% | Clinton +1 | Tie | |
| • | New Jersey | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 792 | LV | 41% | 33% | 4% | Clinton +9 | Clinton +8 | |
| • | Florida | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 987 | LV | 38% | 39% | 5% | Tie | Trump +1 | |
| • | Alabama | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 445 | LV | 24% | 53% | 4% | Trump +30 | Trump +30 | |
| • | Wisconsin | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 725 | LV | 38% | 29% | 8% | Clinton +9 | Clinton +9 | |
| • | New Hampshire | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 89 | LV | 42% | 29% | 4% | Clinton +12 | Clinton +12 | |
| • | New York | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 1,165 | LV | 44% | 29% | 5% | Clinton +15 | Clinton +14 | |
| • | South Carolina | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 387 | LV | 29% | 45% | 5% | Trump +16 | Trump +16 | |
| • | National | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 21,240 | LV | 39% | 34% | 6% | Clinton +5 | Clinton +4 | |
| • | Kentucky | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 398 | LV | 33% | 44% | 5% | Trump +11 | Trump +11 | |
| • | Connecticut | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 344 | LV | 40% | 33% | 7% | Clinton +7 | Clinton +6 | |
| • | Iowa | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 424 | LV | 34% | 33% | 9% | Clinton +2 | Clinton +1 | |
| • | Kansas | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 286 | LV | 39% | 30% | 7% | Clinton +9 | Clinton +8 | |
| • | Colorado | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 600 | LV | 44% | 26% | 8% | Clinton +18 | Clinton +18 | |
| • | Montana | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 125 | LV | 38% | 35% | 6% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +3 | |
| • | Nevada | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 259 | LV | 37% | 36% | 5% | Clinton +1 | Tie | |
| • | Missouri | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 587 | LV | 38% | 34% | 8% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +3 | |
| • | Alaska | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 111 | LV | 28% | 37% | 9% | Trump +9 | Trump +9 | |
| • | Arizona | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 629 | LV | 42% | 31% | 5% | Clinton +10 | Clinton +10 | |
| • | Minnesota | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 596 | LV | 36% | 29% | 9% | Clinton +7 | Clinton +7 | |
| • | Illinois | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 1,105 | LV | 39% | 29% | 6% | Clinton +10 | Clinton +9 | |
| • | Texas | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 1,163 | LV | 33% | 41% | 8% | Trump +7 | Trump +8 | |
| • | Indiana | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 717 | LV | 36% | 33% | 6% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +2 | |
| • | Idaho | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 182 | LV | 27% | 38% | 3% | Trump +12 | Trump +12 | |
| • | Massachusetts | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 485 | LV | 48% | 24% | 6% | Clinton +25 | Clinton +24 | |
| • | Tennessee | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 401 | LV | 27% | 45% | 7% | Trump +18 | Trump +18 | |
| • | Maryland | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 414 | LV | 49% | 25% | 5% | Clinton +24 | Clinton +23 | |
| • | Nebraska | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 227 | LV | 32% | 39% | 7% | Trump +7 | Trump +8 | |
| • | West Virginia | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 111 | LV | 27% | 45% | 9% | Trump +18 | Trump +19 | |
| • | Louisiana | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 312 | LV | 26% | 52% | 8% | Trump +26 | Trump +27 | |
| • | New Mexico | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 249 | LV | 40% | 26% | 13% | Clinton +14 | Clinton +13 | |
| • | Arkansas | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 238 | LV | 27% | 45% | 10% | Trump +17 | Trump +18 | |
| • | Oklahoma | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 249 | LV | 27% | 41% | 12% | Trump +14 | Trump +14 | |
| • | Mississippi | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 237 | LV | 31% | 45% | 4% | Trump +14 | Trump +14 | |
| • | Delaware | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 113 | LV | 37% | 28% | 12% | Clinton +9 | Clinton +8 | |
| • | Maine | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 137 | LV | 37% | 36% | 7% | Tie | Tie | |
| • | District of Columbia | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 66 | LV | 66% | 7% | 7% | Clinton +59 | Clinton +58 | |
| • | Hawaii | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 94 | LV | 49% | 27% | 5% | Clinton +22 | Clinton +21 | |
| • | Vermont | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 91 | LV | 48% | 21% | 6% | Clinton +27 | Clinton +26 | |
| • | South Dakota | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 101 | LV | 28% | 44% | 2% | Trump +16 | Trump +16 | |
| • | Wyoming | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 76 | LV | 27% | 46% | 6% | Trump +19 | Trump +19 | |
| • | North Dakota | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 66 | LV | 27% | 38% | 17% | Trump +10 | Trump +11 | |
| • | Rhode Island | Oct. 20-24 | Google Consumer Surveys | B | 70 | LV | 45% | 33% | 4% | Clinton +12 | Clinton +12 | |
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 4:09 p.m.Clinton 85.4%Trump 14.6% | ||||||||||||
| • | Ohio | Oct. 17-24 | Auto Alliance / | C+ | 875 | LV | 42% | 44% | 6% | Trump +2 | Trump +1 | |
| • | North Carolina | Oct. 17-24 | Auto Alliance / | C+ | 875 | LV | 46% | 43% | 6% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +4 | |
| • | Pennsylvania | Oct. 17-24 | Auto Alliance / | C+ | 875 | LV | 45% | 40% | 7% | Clinton +5 | Clinton +6 | |
| • | Florida | Oct. 17-24 | Auto Alliance / | C+ | 875 | LV | 46% | 43% | 3% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +4 | |
| • | National | Oct. 17-21 | Ipsos | A- | 1,177 | LV | 44% | 38% | 6% | Clinton +6 | Clinton +6 | |
| • | National | Oct. 18-22 | Ipsos | A- | 1,153 | LV | 44% | 36% | 7% | Clinton +9 | Clinton +8 | |
| • | National | Oct. 19-23 | Ipsos | A- | 1,181 | LV | 43% | 37% | 7% | Clinton +6 | Clinton +5 | |
| • | National | Oct. 21-24 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | B- | 900 | LV | 50% | 38% | 5% | Clinton +12 | Clinton +10 | |
| • | National | Oct. 20-24 | Ipsos | A- | 1,167 | LV | 43% | 38% | 7% | Clinton +5 | Clinton +4 | |
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 3:15 p.m.Clinton 85.5%Trump 14.5% | ||||||||||||
| • | South Dakota | Oct. 19-21 | Remington | 1,115 | LV | 37% | 48% | 6% | Trump +11 | Trump +9 | ||
| • | Wyoming | Oct. 5-11 | University of Wyoming | 722 | LV | 20% | 58% | 9% | Trump +38 | Trump +37 | ||
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 2:30 p.m.Clinton 85.3%Trump 14.6% | ||||||||||||
| • | National | Oct. 20-23 | Gravis Marketing | B- | 2,109 | RV | 50% | 50% | Tie | Clinton +1 | ||
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 2:10 p.m.Clinton 85.8%Trump 14.1% | ||||||||||||
| • | South Dakota | Oct. 18-20 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | B+ | 400 | LV | 37% | 44% | 7% | Trump +7 | Trump +8 | |
Wednesday, Oct. 26, at 8:58 a.m. EDT
Wednesday, Oct. 26, at 8:39 a.m. EDT
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 11:20 p.m. EDT
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 8:14 p.m. EDT
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 7:49 p.m. EDT
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 4:41 p.m. EDT
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 4:09 p.m. EDT
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 3:15 p.m. EDT
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 2:30 p.m. EDT
Tuesday, Oct. 25, at 2:10 p.m. EDT
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Download CSV of polls.