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Where is Clinton's debate bump? (self.EnoughTrumpSpam)

RachelSubstance が 投稿

It was on Wednesday and still no bounce in the polls and 538 is showing a very slight decline in Clinton's numbers and everyone is rubbing in our faces that poll that shows Trump up 2 points and Iowa is back to red in the nowcast and aarrrgghhh just release new polls already

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[–]HollowUkuleleChords 8ポイント9ポイント  (2子コメント)

Takes about a week to show up in the polls.

But we may not see a bump. Traditionally debates do very little to help move the dial for the candidates

[–]RachelSubstance[S] 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

tbf the first debate gave her a HUGE bounce

[–]HollowUkuleleChords 3ポイント4ポイント  (0子コメント)

Absolutely. So did the second one. BUT, that was very abnormal. She took a huge risk with her debate strategy and it paid off tremendously (I hate that Trump has ruined the word tremendous, BTW)

She might see a bump this time too. Or she may not. I don't think we can predict it, because it's been such an unusual election season

[–]dmb1279 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

The third debate has historically never moved polls

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/19/the-bad-news-for-donald-trump-third-debates-dont-move-the-polls/

[–]RachelSubstance[S] 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

There's a lot of historic things about this election

[–]thatpj 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

Uh the fact that Utah, Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are swing states...

[–]RachelSubstance[S] 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I mean from the third debate, and Utah is only really a swing state because Evan McMullin is polling very good numbers

[–]drexler57346 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

I'm looking at 538, and there really haven't been many (public) polls conducted solely or even primarily after the 19th. So we don't know yet.

[–]doctorseaweed 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Clinwon is already in the mid to high 80's on her chance of winning on most websites. Unless states like Alabama or Kentucky started to show signs of going to Clinton then her chance of winning can't really get much better.

[–]ajswdf 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

I wouldn't expect much of a third debate bounce. By the time the third debate came along anybody who was going to be persuaded by debates would have already made their mind up from the first two.

[–]ihohjlknk 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Debate performance takes a week to reflect in the polls, but i'm not expecting a "bounce". 538 says she might have hit a "win ceiling", as in she is winning so much that its not possible to win anymore because you can't chip away at Mango Mussolini's zealous 35% of the country.