The Three Dollar Bill

“Wait I’m sorry, who’s here?  Mistresses!  Bill how could you?  How will I go on with the debate?  I’ll never be able to remember my facts and figures now, oh Donald how could you?

Get real, I’m made of steel.  This is nothing.  Hi, girls.”

‘Hillary Clinton’

It’s probably titanium steel, although she can put it away now.  At this stage, Hillary Clinton only has to show up and be the adult in the room to win the final debate.

Trump has already destroyed himself: even if Kellyanne Conway had spent the last eight days re-enacting the aversion therapy scene from A Clockwork Orange and forced Trump to watch images of falling polls in a repeating loop with his eyes held open, it wouldn’t make any difference.  The point at which the Ludovico Technique or, more modestly, a solid debate performance from Donald Trump, could make a difference has come and gone.

In fact, the only unknown in advance of tonight’s debate is how high the crazy meter jumps.  It oscillated so hard at the last debate, the glass nearly broke.

Continue reading “SCHLOCKWORK ORANGE”

 

Hillary Clinton is far from perfect but regardless of her failings, it’s impossible not to feel some sympathy for a person who has been demonised like no presidential candidate in history. 

Yes, Clinton deserves criticism.  No, she has not been upfront about many things.  Yes, she has a dangerous preference for secrecy.    

All that said, it must be appalling to live in a world where epithets like witch, tramp and c*nt are used to describe you as a matter of course at political rallies.  This is a world where a ten year old child shouts “Take that bitch down.’ with his mother standing a few feet away.  Without being flippant, you can understand why a female candidate would prefer to look at cat gifs on the internet.

Continue reading “DEPLORABLE ME”

 

23 days from now, the Democratic Party will shatter another ceiling when Hillary Clinton wins the 2016 presidential election.  The first female President, like the first African-American, makes history merely by being elected, although like every other aspirant for the highest office of all, she’ll be aiming for a weightier record than that.

Female, black or neither, every President has one thing in common – they want to be remembered as great.  Many have tried and most have failed.  For a historic presidency, you need a strong start and there’s no better way to begin than with a landslide. It’s not a guarantor of success – Richard Nixon secured a record victory in 1972 and he departed in ignominy less than two years later – but if you want a powerful mandate and a consequential presidency, there’s no better way to start than with a landslide.

Could it happen this year – could Hillary succeed where both Obama and Bill Clinton failed?

Continue reading “THE LUCK OF THE CLINTONS”

“Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican”

Ronald Reagan

Those were the days, my friend, we thought they’d never end. 

This is actually happening – just over three weeks to a general election, the Republican nominee for president began his day by accusing the Speaker of the House, de facto leader of his party, of weakness, ineffectiveness and disloyalty.  Later the same day, he went on to praise how loyal Democrats are. 

In the aftermath of Watergate, Gerald Ford said “Our long national nightmare is over”.  One way or another, the steaming mess that is campaign 2016 is finally drawing to a close.  Three and a bit more weeks and it’s done.  It hardly seems possible.

Maybe battle-worn, bloodied and weary Republicans find some consolation in this.  The End of Days is in sight.  A second Clinton presidency is inevitable, and Republicans will have to find some way to come to terms with that, but at least they won’t have to wake up every morning to face the self-parody that their party – their Grand Old Party – has become. 

Continue reading “THE ELEVENTH COMMANDMENT”

 

Whatever else happens tonight, one thing is certain.  Regardless of whether the first question is about ISIS, immigration, fiscal policy or North Korean nukes, Donald Trump will start with another apology.  Maybe he can make it sound more convincing the second time round unless the Trump Grill ran out of bacon cheeseburgers and coffee at 5am this morning.

Is it all over?  Yes, it’s all over.  Trump was going to lose anyway, but even if he still had a chance he could never come back from this.  A week ago, Kate McKinnon rested her elbow on the edge of the podium and winked at the audience during Saturday Night Live’s take on the first debate.  The real Hillary Clinton might as well do the same thing tonight.   

Continue reading “GAME OVER”

At the end of the 2010 movie adaptation of Game Change, easily the best chronicle of the 2008 presidential election, Woody Harrelson, as John McCain’s campaign manager Steve Schmidt, delivers the following speech to Julianne Moore’s Sarah Palin:- 

“Governor, this country has just elected the first African American president in the history of its existence, and it is the concession speech that will legitimize his succession as Commander in Chief.  It is a serious and solemn occasion, and John McCain, and only John McCain, will be giving this sacred speech.  This is how it has been done in every Presidential election since the dawn of the Republic, and you, Sarah Palin, will not change the importance of this proud American tradition.”

It’s probably apocryphal and doesn’t feature in the original book, but it’s still a powerful moment and a reminder of the significance of the unlucky candidate’s formal concession that the election is lost.

Are we going to hear one in 2016?

Continue reading “WHAT IF TRUMP DOESN’T CONCEDE?”

 

As expected, the first debate of the 2024 presidential election race was a mediocre affair with occasional sparks but no fire and plenty of complaints about Hillary Clinton.

Last night wasn’t really an event in the 2016 campaign.  It was inconsequential in the ongoing drama that is Trump – vs – Clinton and the only way this might have been different is if either candidate said or did something irretrievably stupid.  While Kaine’s aides should have refused him a final cup of coffee before he went on stage, it’s hard to say that either candidate had a bad night. 

Continue reading “THE DEBATE THAT TIME FORGOT”

 

Mission accomplished?  Commentators, pundits and snap poll voters all believe that Hillary Clinton won last night’s debate and the narrative is already shifting to the effect her victory will have on the general election – particularly whether the tide will at long last turn against her opponent.

It’s certainly true Clinton avoided most pitfalls and came across as balanced, intelligent and capable.  She was able to probe many of Trump’s many weak spots without overdoing it and her campaign is justifiably proud of her performance this morning.

But did the Great Panjandrum really lose last night?  No doubt fact checkers will have a whale of a time and there were obvious glaring holes in Trump’s arguments – but is that necessarily a problem for him?

Continue reading “DID TRUMP REALLY LOSE LAST NIGHT?”

 

“His lips screwed themselves in to a rubbery fist.  The muscles around his eyes knotted.  Karen and Bartlett knew that look: It meant that the president was done hearing this crap.”  

‘Dead Certain’, Draper, 2007  

Like all things, the 2016 presidential candidates have radically different ideas about the best way to prepare for the debates, the last milestone of the general election campaign.

Hillary Clinton doesn’t give a speech without exhaustive preparation, let alone a debate watched by tens of millions of voters.  She devoted time and effort to debate preparation including live rehearsals exactly mirroring the conditions tomorrow night.

Her opponent, on the other hand, kicked back with family and friends over bacon hotdogs and didn’t even have one practice run.  From his perspective, protracted and tedious debate preparation isn’t necessary – he got through the primary debates just fine without spending hours poring over briefing books.

You couldn’t ask for a clearer example of the difference between the candidates.  Clinton throws herself body and soul into intense study and preparation.  Trump says he’ll basically wing it.

Continue reading “CICERO AWAITS?”

 

What’s happening in 2016? How did Donald Trump become the Republican Party nominee and why is Hillary Clinton finding it impossible to close the deal?

The Republicans should have had it reasonably easy in 2016: Obama is popular, but not that popular and while the US economy is in recovery, a majority of the electorate remains dissatisfied.  As well as that, third terms for an incumbent party are rare to begin with. A fresh-faced Republican would have a decent shot at the White House in a normal year.

Looking at it from the other side, a fresh-faced Democrat would have a decent shot at defeating Donald Trump given his incoherent policies, his public utterances and his failure to build any kind of competent campaign on the ground.

Easily the strangest thing about the 2016 race is the fact that each of the major parties somehow ended up nominating the worst candidate possible. How did this happen?

Continue reading “THE END OF THE BEGINNING”