My latest paper "What do financial markets think of the 2016 election?" is here: https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-do-financial-markets-think-of-the-2016-election/ … …. I'm going to tweetstorm it.pic.twitter.com/fGVLvT2t5m
Want to know what markets think of Clinton? Analyze how they responded when Trump's debate meltdown made her a more likely POTUS.pic.twitter.com/5biZ9F5B8K
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When Hillary won the debate, her odds of winning rose 6%. S&P rose 0.71%. Implies market expects to be 0.71%/6% = 12% higher under Clinton.
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How do we know this was due to the greater likelihood of a Clinton win? Well, what else would cause the Peso to skyrocket at the same time?pic.twitter.com/7tV4f27i4B
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Are we over-analyzing a blip? No. Overnight markets rarely move this much. Something big happened during the debate.pic.twitter.com/SP1cmGQYdz
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Compared to typical stock movements on a Monday evening, the debate-related move was large. Very large.pic.twitter.com/sqP2BkijQD
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Other stock indices also rose when Clinton was more likely to win. The "Trump discount" exists for small, medium & large cap stockspic.twitter.com/7mrkwG4wZo
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Here's the biggie: The U.S. election isn't just about the U.S. It drives British stocks just as much as U.S. stocks.pic.twitter.com/Rc3NbPFKHp
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Indeed, an increasing likelihood of a Clinton win drove equity markets around the world to rise sharply. Bigly, even.pic.twitter.com/apc1JTit2Q
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Point is: Markets believe this election will have huge ramifications for the global economy. It's not just about us; it's about the world.
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@JustinWolfers@DemFromCT so Bernie was right. She is the candidate of Wall Street -
@JustinWolfers@MrZweistein the market likes stability, with her you're getting a known thing, shitty, but known. Market hates uncertainty.
読み込みに時間がかかっているようです。
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