Today's Election Update:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-big-lead-means-a-steadier-forecast/ …
Clinton's lead is big enough that her win probability is maxing out a bit. Our model gets conservative at the tails of the distribution.pic.twitter.com/GvCM0fd730
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@NateSilver538 I WANT 100% ABSOLUTE METAPHYSICAL CERTAINTUDE - さらに表示
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@NateSilver538 What this means is get out and vote.#ImWithHer -
@JohnT15@NateSilver538 she already won there's no need for people to vote if they have other stuff going on -
@mbrez79@NateSilver538 LOL. Tweeting this from a HRC phone bank, btw.#GOTV
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@NateSilver538 Winning the popular vote works 100% of the time - Al Gore. - さらに表示
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@NateSilver538 just how she likes her leads... and her contributions -
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@NateSilver538 Ok Nate -
@NateSilver538 after the odds you gave Trump of winning the nomination, this is music to my ears
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@NateSilver538 was there any time in 2008 or 2012 when Obama had 10 point leads in (any) poll..esp close to election?! -
@NateSilver538 But what about the biased sample towards democrats in most all national polls? -
@NateSilver538 "the limit does not exist!"#meangirls -
@NateSilver538@FiveThirtyEight Still waiting for your analysis into these outliers...pic.twitter.com/1GGYdts1Lv -
@NateSilver538 trump will say your site is rigging everything ! -
@NateSilver538 Dream on. Monmouth poll had 720 likely voters. 2 lo for nat. poll. Plus all live phone calls skew toward Clinton . -
@NateSilver538 and the band on the Titanic plays on...I guess if you pretend the O'keefe videos never happened, but we know. -
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@NateSilver538 They're diminishing in point value, but not in relative %-age of "doubt" eliminated, ie, the % they cut opponent's chances. -
@NateSilver538 so you guys use a sigmoid (or softmax) function to compute probabilities? -
@NateSilver538 if everything stays the same what's the floor for Trump's win probability and what's the half-life to get there
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