Indiana poll: Trump, Bayh have small leads
A new poll shows former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh leading Republican Todd Young in the Indiana Senate race by 6 points, despite weeks of GOP attacks and unflattering news reports about Bayh’s lucrative post-Senate activities.
The Monmouth University poll shows Democrats overall in better position than two months ago, despite a modest tightening of the Senate contest. The race for the state’s 11 electoral votes is tighter now than in the summer: Donald Trump, who named Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate, has only a 4-point lead over Hillary Clinton. And Democrat John Gregg has opened up a significant lead in the race to replace Pence as governor.
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At the top of the ticket, Trump leads Clinton, 45 percent to 41 percent — down from an 11-point lead in mid-August. Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 9 percent, and about 5 percent of likely voters are undecided.
The poll was conducted Tuesday-Thursday, and there’s some evidence recent news is tightening the race. Patrick Murray, the Monmouth University pollster, said Trump led by 7 percentage points in the first two nights of interviewing — but in Thursday's surveying, after a handful of women accused Trump of unwanted sexual contact or advances, Clinton had a 2-point advantage.
“Trump’s support in his running mate’s home state was already eroding before the latest bombshell hit,” Murray said. “The news that broke Wednesday seems to have driven those numbers even lower.”
Neither presidential campaign is actively contesting Indiana, which voted narrowly for Barack Obama in 2008 but swung sharply back to Republicans in 2012. Mitt Romney won the state by 54 percent to 44 percent.
Instead, most of the attention in the state is focused on the Senate race, with Bayh making a last-minute bid to reclaim the seat from which he retired six years ago. Bayh’s 6-point lead, 48 percent to 42 percent, is virtually unchanged from two months ago, when he led by 7 points. Libertarian Lucy Brenton is at 6 percent in the new poll, and 4 percent of likely voters are undecided.
The GOP attacks on Bayh and negative news coverage have only taken a modest toll on the Democrat’s image with voters: 40 percent of likely voters view Bayh favorably, compared to 26 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of him. More than a third, 34 percent, express no opinion of Bayh — a former two-term governor and two-term senator.
But Young’s image is also slipping: The percentage of likely voters who view Young favorably slipped 2 points from mid-August, from 29 percent to 27 percent. At the same time, the percentage who view Young, a third-term congressman, unfavorably increased by 4 points, from 15 percent to 19 percent. A 54-percent majority has no opinion of Young.
The gubernatorial race is slipping away from Republicans, who have controlled the governor’s mansion for the past 12 years. Gregg, who narrowly lost to Pence in 2012, has a 12-point lead over Republican Eric Holcomb, 50 percent to 38 percent.
The Monmouth poll surveyed 402 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.