Hey, are you interested in how likely given outcomes on November 8th are? Me too! Here's some data from Fivethirtyeight's polls plus forecasts - note that these are the forecasts that are most positive for Donald Trump.
Some fun takeaways first:
It is as likely that Clinton wins the popular vote by double digits as that Trump wins the popular vote at all
There are only five states where a Clinton win is less likely than a nationwide Trump popular vote majority: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Oklahoma, and West Virginia - in every other state, it is likelier that Clinton wins there than that Trump gets >50% of the nationwide popular vote
It is more than twice as likely that Clinton wins Arizona than that Trump wins the election
It is just less than twice as likely that Clinton wins that aforementioned >50% of the nationwide popular vote than that Trump wins at all
It is also slightly less than twice as likely that Clinton wins Alaska as that Trump wins the nationwide popular vote (with or without a majority)
Remember, all of this data is taken from the Fivethirtyeight model that gives Trump the best chances!
Event |
Chance |
Relative to Trump win |
Relative to Trump PV win |
Relative to Trump PV Majority |
Clinton wins Ohio |
56.50% |
3.27 |
4.45 |
43.46 |
Clinton wins Iowa |
51.20% |
2.96 |
4.03 |
39.38 |
Clinton wins Arizona |
41.10% |
2.38 |
3.24 |
31.62 |
Clinton wins popular vote majority |
33.20% |
1.92 |
2.61 |
25.54 |
Clinton wins Alaska |
24.40% |
1.41 |
1.92 |
18.77 |
Trump wins the election |
17.30% |
1.00 |
1.36 |
13.31 |
Clinton wins Georgia |
17.20% |
|
1.35 |
13.23 |
Clinton wins Missouri |
14.30% |
|
1.13 |
11.00 |
Clinton wins South Dakota |
13.10% |
|
1.03 |
10.08 |
Trump wins the popular vote |
12.70% |
|
1.00 |
9.77 |
Clinton wins popular vote by double digits |
12.70% |
|
1.00 |
9.77 |
Clinton wins Montana |
10.40% |
|
|
8.00 |
Clinton wins South Carolina |
9.40% |
|
|
7.23 |
Clinton wins Indiana |
7.90% |
|
|
6.08 |
Clinton wins Texas |
7.40% |
|
|
5.69 |
Clinton wins Kansas |
5.60% |
|
|
4.31 |
Clinton wins North Dakota |
5.10% |
|
|
3.92 |
Clinton wins Utah |
4.70% |
|
|
3.62 |
Clinton wins Mississippi |
3.10% |
|
|
2.38 |
McMullin wins Utah |
2.60% |
|
|
2.00 |
Clinton wins Nebraska |
2.40% |
|
|
1.85 |
Clinton wins Tennessee |
1.90% |
|
|
1.46 |
Clinton wins Kentucky |
1.70% |
|
|
1.31 |
Clinton wins Louisiana |
1.60% |
|
|
1.23 |
Clinton wins Wyoming |
1.40% |
|
|
1.08 |
Trump wins popular vote majority |
1.30% |
|
|
1.00 |
ここには何もないようです