Who will win the Senate?
Who would win the Senate today?
Democrats
51.9%
Republicans
48.1%
50%
90
D
R
The vice president breaks ties in the Senate. is the probability of a 50-50 split in the Senate with a Democratic vice president. is the probability of a 50-50 split with a Republican vice president.
# How the odds have changed
We'll be updating our Senate forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.
# Who’s ahead in each Senate race
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each race. Here are the expected margins of victory in each state. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
Key
Average
80% chance outcome falls in this range
The balance of power in the next Senate
In each simulation of the Senate elections, we forecast the winner of all 34 races and note the resulting number of seats that would be held by the parties. That gives us a distribution of possible outcomes.
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What the next Senate might look like
More than twice as many Republican seats are up for election this year as Democratic seats, giving Democrats more opportunities to build a majority. To win control of the chamber, they'll need to net four additional seats — if they win the presidency. Without the White House, they'll need five.
# How much each race matters
Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining which party controls the next Senate: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a race will decide whether the Democrats or Republicans are in the majority. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the majority party.
Tipping-point chance
North Carolina | 15.8% |
Pennsylvania | 12.3% |
New Hampshire | 12.1% |
Missouri | 11.6% |
Nevada | 11.6% |
Florida | 9.2% |
Indiana | 7.2% |
Kentucky | 3.1% |
Illinois | 2.9% |
Ohio | 1.8% |
Arizona | 1.6% |
Wisconsin | 1.5% |
Iowa | 1.3% |
Alaska | 1.1% |
Colorado | 1.1% |
Washington | 1.0% |
Arkansas | 0.8% |
Louisiana | 0.8% |
Georgia | 0.8% |
Kansas | 0.4% |
North Dakota | 0.4% |
South Carolina | 0.3% |
Connecticut | 0.2% |
Alabama | 0.2% |
Oklahoma | 0.2% |
South Dakota | 0.2% |
Utah | 0.1% |
Idaho | 0.1% |
Oregon | 0.1% |
Vermont | 0.1% |
Maryland | <0.1% |
New York | <0.1% |
Hawaii | <0.1% |
California | <0.1% |
Voter power index
New Hampshire | 16.2 |
Nevada | 10.3 |
Missouri | 4.1 |
Alaska | 3.6 |
North Carolina | 3.3 |
Indiana | 2.6 |
Pennsylvania | 2.1 |
Kentucky | 1.7 |
North Dakota | 1.0 |
Florida | 1.0 |
Iowa | 0.8 |
Arkansas | 0.8 |
Arizona | 0.6 |
Illinois | 0.5 |
Wisconsin | 0.5 |
South Dakota | 0.4 |
Colorado | 0.4 |
Louisiana | 0.4 |
Vermont | 0.4 |
Kansas | 0.4 |
Ohio | 0.3 |
Washington | 0.3 |
Hawaii | 0.2 |
Georgia | 0.2 |
Idaho | 0.2 |
Connecticut | 0.1 |
Oklahoma | 0.1 |
South Carolina | 0.1 |
Utah | 0.1 |
Alabama | <0.1 |
Oregon | <0.1 |
Maryland | <0.1 |
New York | <0.1 |
California | <0.1 |
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Democratic seat counts include two independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, who caucus with the Democrats; neither is up for election this year.
Some charts do not include California or Louisiana. California uses a "top two" primary system. In its Senate primary, on June 7, the candidates from all parties were listed on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters — both Democrats — will face each other in the general election on Nov. 8. Louisiana will hold its primary election on Nov. 8, with candidates from all parties listed on the same ballot. If one candidate gets a majority of votes, that person wins. Otherwise, the state will hold a runoff on Dec. 10 between the top two vote-getters.
Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports.
Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Matthew Conlen, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. Illustrations by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
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Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
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Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
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Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected primary vote share
Chances of each party winning seat
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
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Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Our latest coverage
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our Senate election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Senate updates
We update our Senate forecast with new polls as they are released. Here are the polls we added in each update. So far we’ve collected 679 polls.
Key
= New
A = ALL ADULTS
RV = REGISTERED VOTERS
LV = LIKELY VOTERS
V = VOTERS
Thursday, Oct. 6, at 8:59 p.m. EDT
| DATES ▲ ▼ | POLLSTER ▲ ▼ | GRADE | SAMPLE | LEADER | ADJUSTED LEADER | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | Ohio | Oct. 5-6 | Public Policy Polling | B+ | 782 | LV | 36% | 51% | Portman +15 | Portman +16 |
Thursday, Oct. 6, at 1:30 p.m. | ||||||||||
| • | Indiana | Oct. 3-5 | Public Opinion Strategies | B | 600 | LV | 42% | 41% | Bayh +1 | Bayh +5 |
Thursday, Oct. 6, at 12:23 p.m. | ||||||||||
| • | New Hampshire | Oct. 3-5 | Suffolk University | B+ | 500 | LV | 41% | 47% | Ayotte +6 | Ayotte +6 |
Thursday, Oct. 6, at 8:46 a.m. | ||||||||||
| • | Nevada | Oct. 2-4 | Emerson College | B | 700 | LV | 41% | 45% | Heck +5 | Heck +4 |
| • | Arizona | Oct. 2-4 | Emerson College | B | 600 | LV | 36% | 52% | McCain +15 | McCain +14 |
| • | Florida | Oct. 2-4 | Emerson College | B | 600 | LV | 39% | 47% | Rubio +8 | Rubio +6 |
| • | Maryland | Sep. 27-30 | University of Maryland / | A+ | 706 | LV | 58% | 29% | Van Hollen +29 | Van Hollen +29 |
Wednesday, Oct. 5, at 7:53 p.m. | ||||||||||
| • | Ohio | Sep. 27-Oct. 2 | Anzalone Liszt Grove Research | C | 800 | LV | 39% | 51% | Portman +12 | Portman +11 |
Thursday, Oct. 6, at 8:59 p.m. EDT
Thursday, Oct. 6, at 1:30 p.m. EDT
Thursday, Oct. 6, at 12:23 p.m. EDT
Thursday, Oct. 6, at 8:46 a.m. EDT
Wednesday, Oct. 5, at 7:53 p.m. EDT
Have thoughts on our Senate forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Generic ballot polls
Our models are mostly based on state polls, but generic ballot polls — which ask whether someone will vote for the Republican or the Democrat in their congressional district — inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend-line adjustment, house-effects adjustment and demographic regression.
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From polls to an adjusted average
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