For immediate release: Wednesday, October 5, 2016 7 pp.
Contact: Krista Jenkins; kjenkins@fdu.edu 973.443.8390
Fairleigh Dickinson University, October 5, 2016 – In the race for the White House, the most recent national survey of likely voters from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds Democrat Hillary Clinton with a ten-point lead over Republican Donald Trump. However, if Clinton were instead facing Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence, the race would be a statistical dead heat. If Trump were up against Clinton’s running mate, Tim Kaine, he would fare even worse than he is against the former Secretary of State.
Right now, half of all likely voters (50%) say that if the election were held today, they would vote for Clinton. Forty percent would vote for Trump. When third-party candidates are included among the list of candidates, Clinton and Trump both experience a four percent reduction in support - Clinton to 46 percent and Trump to 36 percent.
“The post-presidential debate landscape is clearly favoring Clinton. Trump’s continued weight shaming of a former Miss Universe and the weekend disclosure of his 1995 tax returns are but a sample of difficult news coverage for the Republican candidate,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of the FDU poll, PublicMind.
Trump is the most competitive among whites (47%) and those whose education did not go beyond high school (46%). Clinton’s lead among women looks almost insurmountable, with over half of women (56%) favoring her over Trump (32%).
A far more competitive landscape emerges if the presidential candidates are Clinton vs. Pence, rather than Clinton vs. Trump. When asked who they favor if the choices were Clinton and Indiana Governor Mike Pence, Clinton’s lead is all but erased. The same number say they would support Pence (46%) as those who would vote for Clinton (47%).
“Clearly Pence doesn’t carry the baggage that his running mate brings to the ticket,” said Jenkins. The Republican ticket gains support among the all-important self-described independents when the ticket puts Pence at the top against Clinton.
Conversely, if Trump were going up against Clinton’s running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, his prospects would dim even further. The ten percentage point gap among likely voters that separates him from Clinton would grow to sixteen points (39% v. 55%, respectively). In this matchup, the Democrats pick up support among women (63%) and independents (52%).
“These numbers suggest that both Pence and Kaine are largely untapped assets to their respective tickets. With both Clinton and Trump struggling under the weight over questions about their honesty, it looks like they could help themselves by highlighting their running mates a bit more. Pence’s and Kaine’s introduction to many voters during their recent debate provides an opportunity for them to capitalize on the more positive feelings many voters feel for them over their running mates,” said Jenkins.
When pitted against each other, in a hypothetical race that makes both the vice-presidential candidates the presidential candidates, the Democrats continue to dominate, but by a slightly smaller margin. Forty-nine percent say they would support Kaine, with 41 percent backing Pence.
Finally, in a question order experiment designed to test the appeal of third party candidates, voters clearly resonate more to Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein than lesser known options Monica Moorehead (World Workers Party) and James Hedges (Prohibition Party). Collectively, Johnson and Stein capture 14 percent support in matchups including Clinton and Trump. However, when Johnson and Stein are replaced with Moorehead and Hedges, support for third party options drops to seven percent.
Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu
Radio actualities at 201.692.2846 For more information, please call 201.692.7032
Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone September 28-October 2, 2016 among a random national sample of 862 registered voters, including 788 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 4.4 percentage points for likely voters (the basis for the analysis presented in this press release), including the design effect.
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.
Interviews were conducted by SSRS of Media, Pennsylvania, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline or cellular phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.
The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, race, and education. 346 interviews were conducted on landlines and 442 were conducted on cellular telephones.
The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.
PublicMind recently received an “A” rating from statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. The ratings measure both accuracy and bias for all major polling services in the United States, providing an update to similar research the poll watchers conducted in 2014. PublicMind’s “A” rating puts it in the top 14 of the more than 380 polling institutes reviewed and graded from A+ through F PublicMind was found to have a 94 percent accuracy rate for predicting election results, and is one of only two A-rated polling institutes with zero bias to their rankings.
Tables
|
If the election for president was held today, and the choices were [Democrat Hillary Clinton] and [Republican Donald Trump], for whom would you vote? |
||||||||||
|
|
|
Gender |
PID |
Age |
||||||
|
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Dem |
Ind |
Repub |
18-29 |
30-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Hillary Clinton |
50% |
42 |
56 |
92 |
44 |
9 |
46 |
55 |
48 |
50 |
|
Donald Trump |
40% |
49 |
32 |
6 |
40 |
80 |
43 |
28 |
43 |
43 |
|
Other (vol) |
5% |
6 |
3 |
0 |
8 |
5 |
8 |
10 |
3 |
2 |
|
DK (vol) |
4% |
2 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
|
Refused (vol) |
2% |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
If the election for president was held today, and the choices were [Democrat Hillary Clinton] and [Republican Donald Trump], for whom would you vote? |
||||||
|
|
Race |
Education |
||||
|
|
White Non-Hisp |
Black Non-Hisp |
Hispanic |
HS or less |
Some college |
College + |
|
Hillary Clinton |
42 |
92 |
70 |
49 |
42 |
56 |
|
Donald Trump |
47 |
7 |
21 |
46 |
43 |
33 |
|
Other (vol) |
5 |
0 |
5 |
1 |
6 |
7 |
|
DK (vol) |
5 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
|
Refused (vol) |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
Now let me ask you that question in a slightly different way. If the election for president was held today, and the choices were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, the third party candidates, for whom would you vote? [N = 385; MoE = +/- 5.0] |
Now let me ask you that question in a slightly different way. If the election for president was held today, and the choices were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and James Hedges or Monica Moorehead, the third party candidates, for whom would you vote? [N = 403 MoE = +/- 4.9] |
||
|
Hillary Clinton |
45% |
Hillary Clinton |
47% |
|
Donald Trump |
36% |
Donald Trump |
35% |
|
Gary Johnson |
11% |
James Hedges |
4% |
|
Jill Stein |
3% |
Monica Moorehead |
3% |
|
Other (vol) |
1% |
Other (vol) |
3% |
|
DK (vol) |
3% |
DK (vol) |
7% |
|
Refused (vol) |
1% |
Refused (vol) |
2% |
|
Horserace question with combined measure of third party candidates |
||||||||||
|
|
|
Gender |
PID |
Age |
||||||
|
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Dem |
Ind |
Repub |
18-29 |
30-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Hillary Clinton |
46% |
40 |
52 |
89 |
37 |
8 |
44 |
51 |
44 |
47 |
|
Donald Trump |
36% |
45 |
27 |
5 |
36 |
75 |
30 |
23 |
41 |
40 |
|
Third party candidate/other |
12% |
12 |
12 |
3 |
21 |
12 |
23 |
15 |
9 |
7 |
|
DK/Refused (vol) |
6% |
4 |
9 |
3 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
11 |
6 |
5 |
|
Horserace question with combined measure of third party candidates |
||||||
|
|
Race |
Education |
||||
|
|
White Non-Hisp |
Black Non-Hisp |
Hispanic |
HS or less |
Some college |
College + |
|
Hillary Clinton |
39 |
88 |
65 |
44 |
40 |
52 |
|
Donald Trump |
42 |
4 |
14 |
44 |
39 |
27 |
|
Third party candidate/other |
13 |
3 |
18 |
9 |
13 |
14 |
|
DK/Refused (vol) |
7 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
9 |
7 |
|
If the major party Vice Presidential candidates were the presidential candidates, for whom would you vote? [rotate choices] |
||||||||||
|
|
|
Gender |
PID |
Age |
||||||
|
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Dem |
Ind |
Repub |
18-29 |
30-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Democrat Tim Kaine |
49% |
45 |
53 |
87 |
44 |
10 |
51 |
53 |
46 |
49 |
|
Republican Mike Pence |
41% |
46 |
36 |
5 |
41 |
87 |
36 |
28 |
46 |
45 |
|
DK (vol) |
10% |
9 |
10 |
8 |
14 |
3 |
13 |
19 |
7 |
5 |
|
Refused (vol) |
1% |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
If the major party Vice Presidential candidates were the presidential candidates, for whom would you vote? [rotate choices] |
||||||
|
|
Race |
Education |
||||
|
|
White Non-Hisp |
Black Non-Hisp |
Hispanic |
HS or less |
Some college |
College + |
|
Democrat Tim Kaine |
44 |
82 |
52 |
47 |
43 |
54 |
|
Republican Mike Pence |
47 |
10 |
29 |
40 |
44 |
39 |
|
DK (vol) |
8 |
9 |
18 |
13 |
11 |
6 |
|
Refused (vol) |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
If the choices for president were [Republican Mike Pence] and [Democrat] Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote? |
||||||||||
|
|
|
Gender |
PID |
Age |
||||||
|
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Dem |
Ind |
Repub |
18-29 |
30-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Democrat Hillary Clinton |
47% |
41 |
53 |
87 |
43 |
8 |
42 |
55 |
47 |
46 |
|
Republican Mike Pence |
46% |
54 |
39 |
8 |
47 |
91 |
50 |
36 |
48 |
50 |
|
DK (vol) |
5% |
4 |
6 |
4 |
8 |
2 |
6 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
|
Refused (vol) |
1% |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
If the choices for president were [Republican Mike Pence] and [Democrat Hillary Clinton], for whom would you vote? |
||||||
|
|
Race |
Education |
||||
|
|
White Non-Hisp |
Black Non-Hisp |
Hispanic |
HS or less |
Some college |
College + |
|
Democrat Hillary Clinton |
41 |
87 |
63 |
48 |
40 |
52 |
|
Republican Mike Pence |
53 |
11 |
26 |
46 |
52 |
43 |
|
DK (vol) |
5 |
1 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
|
Refused (vol) |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
|
If the choices for president were [Democrat Tim Kaine] and [Republican Donald Trump], for whom would you vote? |
||||||||||
|
|
|
Gender |
PID |
Age |
||||||
|
|
All |
Male |
Female |
Dem |
Ind |
Repub |
18-29 |
30-44 |
45-64 |
65+ |
|
Democrat Tim Kaine |
55% |
47 |
63 |
91 |
52 |
19 |
59 |
58 |
54 |
54 |
|
Republican Donald Trump |
39% |
47 |
31 |
6 |
39 |
78 |
37 |
29 |
42 |
41 |
|
DK (vol) |
5% |
5 |
5 |
3 |
7 |
3 |
5 |
11 |
4 |
4 |
|
Refused (vol) |
1% |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
If the choices for president were [Democrat Tim Kaine] and [Republican Donald Trump], for whom would you vote? |
||||||
|
|
Race |
Education |
||||
|
|
White Non-Hisp |
Black Non-Hisp |
Hispanic |
HS or less |
Some college |
College + |
|
Democrat Tim Kaine |
49 |
90 |
68 |
52 |
51 |
61 |
|
Republican Donald Trump |
45 |
7 |
20 |
43 |
42 |
33 |
|
DK (vol) |
5 |
3 |
11 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
|
Refused (vol) |
1 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
Question wording and order:
ELEC1 I’d like you to rate your chances of voting in November’s presidential election. On a scale of 0-10, with 0 meaning you’ll definitely not vote in the presidential election and 10 meaning you’ll definitely vote in the presidential election, how would you rate your chances?
Record response
88 Already voted (vol)
99 DK(vol)
999 Refused (vol)
ELEC2 If the election for president was held today, and the choices were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? [rotate choices]
1 Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
2 Donald Trump, the Republican
5 Other (vol))
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
[1/2 sample gets ELEC3A, remainder get ELEC3B]
ELEC3A Now let me ask the question in a slightly different way, if the election for president was held today, and the choices were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, for whom would you vote? [rotate choices]
1 Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
2 Donald Trump, the Republican
3 Gary Johnson, the third party candidate
4 Jill Stein, the third party candidate
5 Other (vol))
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
ELEC3B Now let me ask the question in a slightly different way, if the election for president was held today, and the choices were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, or third party candidates James Hedges and Monica Morehead, for whom would you vote? [rotate choices]
1 Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
2 Donald Trump, the Republican
3 James Hedges, third party candidate
4 Monica Morehead, third party candidate
5 Other (vol))
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
ELEC4 If the major party Vice Presidential candidates were the presidential candidates, for whom would you vote? Republican Mike Pence or Democrat Tim Kaine? [rotate]
1 Mike Pence, the Republican
2 Tim Kaine, the Democrat
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
[Rotate order of ELEC5 and ELEC6]
ELEC5 If the choices for president were Republican Mike Pence and Democrat Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote? [rotate]
1 Mike Pence, the Republican
2 Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
ELEC6 If the choices for president were Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? [rotate]
1 Tim Kaine, the Democrat
2 Donald Trump, the Republican
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
|
Gender |
Male |
47% (+/- 5.1) |
|
|
Female |
53% (+/- 4.8) |
|
Age |
18-29 |
16% (+/-10.3) |
|
|
30-44 |
19% (+/-9.2) |
|
|
45-64 |
40% (+/-5.7) |
|
|
65+ |
24% (+/-5.8) |
|
Race |
White Non-Hispanic |
73% (+/-4.1) |
|
|
Black Non-Hispanic |
10% (+/-10.6) |
|
|
Hispanic |
8% (+/-12.4) |
|
Education |
HS or less |
33% (+/-7.5) |
|
|
Some college |
27% (+/-6.4) |
|
|
College grad |
40% (+/-5.0) |
|
Party identification |
Dem |
34% (+/-6.6) |
|
|
Ind |
33% (+/-6.2) |
|
|
Repub |
29% (+/-5.7) |