Who will win the presidency?
Who’d Who would win the presidency today?
Hillary Clinton
68.7%
Donald Trump
31.3%
Electoral votes
Electoral votes
Hillary Clinton
Clinton
303.0
Donald Trump
Trump
234.7
Gary Johnson
Johnson
0.4
Popular vote
Hillary Clinton
Clinton
47.1%
Donald Trump
Trump
43.7%
Gary Johnson
Johnson
7.8%
# How the odds have changed
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.
# Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 10,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
Key
Average
80% chance outcome falls in this range
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# It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes
Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it.
Key
50%
60
70
80
90
Clinton's chances
Trump's chances
One electoral vote
# The winding path to 270 electoral votes
A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are farthest left, Trump’s farthest right — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.
A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are at the top, Trump’s at the bottom — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.
One electoral vote
# How much each state matters
Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner.
Tipping-point chance
Florida | 19.6% |
Pennsylvania | 12.8% |
Michigan | 9.3% |
Ohio | 9.1% |
North Carolina | 7.7% |
Colorado | 6.9% |
Wisconsin | 5.5% |
Virginia | 4.8% |
Minnesota | 4.8% |
Nevada | 3.6% |
New Hampshire | 2.6% |
Arizona | 1.9% |
Iowa | 1.8% |
Georgia | 1.4% |
New Mexico | 1.0% |
Illinois | 0.8% |
New Jersey | 0.6% |
Maine - statewide | 0.6% |
Washington | 0.5% |
Rhode Island | 0.5% |
Alaska | 0.5% |
Missouri | 0.5% |
Delaware | 0.4% |
Connecticut | 0.4% |
Texas | 0.4% |
Oregon | 0.4% |
Vermont | 0.3% |
Montana | 0.2% |
Maine 2nd District | 0.1% |
Kansas | 0.1% |
South Carolina | 0.1% |
Indiana | 0.1% |
Nebraska 2nd District | <0.1% |
South Dakota | <0.1% |
Louisiana | <0.1% |
Mississippi | <0.1% |
Kentucky | <0.1% |
Utah | <0.1% |
Nebraska 1st District | <0.1% |
Maine 1st District | <0.1% |
North Dakota | <0.1% |
Tennessee | <0.1% |
Arkansas | <0.1% |
New York | <0.1% |
Nebraska - statewide | <0.1% |
Massachusetts | <0.1% |
Alabama | <0.1% |
West Virginia | <0.1% |
California | <0.1% |
Oklahoma | <0.1% |
Idaho | <0.1% |
Maryland | <0.1% |
Hawaii | <0.1% |
Wyoming | <0.1% |
Nebraska 3rd District | <0.1% |
District of Columbia | <0.1% |
Voter power index
New Hampshire | 4.9 |
Nevada | 4.3 |
Colorado | 3.4 |
Pennsylvania | 3.0 |
Florida | 2.8 |
Michigan | 2.6 |
Wisconsin | 2.4 |
North Carolina | 2.2 |
Alaska | 2.2 |
Ohio | 2.2 |
Minnesota | 2.1 |
New Mexico | 1.7 |
Virginia | 1.6 |
Iowa | 1.5 |
Rhode Island | 1.5 |
Vermont | 1.4 |
Delaware | 1.4 |
Maine - statewide | 1.1 |
Arizona | 1.0 |
Maine 2nd District | 0.6 |
Georgia | 0.5 |
Nebraska 1st District | 0.5 |
Montana | 0.4 |
Nebraska 2nd District | 0.3 |
Connecticut | 0.3 |
North Dakota | 0.3 |
Oregon | 0.3 |
Missouri | 0.2 |
New Jersey | 0.2 |
Washington | 0.2 |
Illinois | 0.2 |
South Dakota | 0.2 |
Kansas | 0.2 |
Maine 1st District | 0.2 |
South Carolina | <0.1 |
Texas | <0.1 |
Nebraska - statewide | <0.1 |
Indiana | <0.1 |
Louisiana | <0.1 |
Nebraska 3rd District | <0.1 |
Hawaii | <0.1 |
Mississippi | <0.1 |
New York | <0.1 |
Massachusetts | <0.1 |
Kentucky | <0.1 |
Utah | <0.1 |
Tennessee | <0.1 |
Arkansas | <0.1 |
Alabama | <0.1 |
West Virginia | <0.1 |
California | <0.1 |
Oklahoma | <0.1 |
Idaho | <0.1 |
Maryland | <0.1 |
Wyoming | <0.1 |
District of Columbia | <0.1 |
# What to expect from the Electoral College
In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.
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# Who’s winning the popular vote
Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.
Key
Average
80% chance outcome falls in this range
# Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios
Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.
| Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes | 0.6% |
| Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt | 6.9% |
| Clinton wins popular vote | 74.7% |
| Trump wins popular vote | 25.3% |
| Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College | 7.1% |
| Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College | 1.1% |
| Johnson wins at least one electoral vote | 3.1% |
| Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote | 20.0% |
| Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote | 3.1% |
| Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin | 10.5% |
| Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin | 1.1% |
| Map exactly the same as in 2012 | 0.5% |
| Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 | 66.2% |
| Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 | 77.8% |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports.
Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Matthew Conlen, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. Candidate portraits by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Hillary Clinton
57.5%
Donald Trump
42.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
75.2%
Donald Trump
24.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
79.3%
Donald Trump
20.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
47.1%
Donald Trump
52.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
50.6%
Donald Trump
49.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
70.1%
Donald Trump
29.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
78.2%
Donald Trump
21.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
83.4%
Donald Trump
16.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
79.4%
Donald Trump
20.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
57.8%
Donald Trump
42.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
71.9%
Donald Trump
28.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
32.0%
Donald Trump
68.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
40.2%
Donald Trump
59.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
22.8%
Donald Trump
77.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
83.1%
Donald Trump
14.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
96.0%
Donald Trump
4.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
93.7%
Donald Trump
6.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
76.8%
Donald Trump
23.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
*Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2
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Hillary Clinton
94.2%
Donald Trump
5.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
88.4%
Donald Trump
11.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
17.2%
Donald Trump
82.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
12.1%
Donald Trump
87.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
85.9%
Donald Trump
14.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
94.0%
Donald Trump
6.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
8.4%
Donald Trump
91.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
92.5%
Donald Trump
7.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
96.1%
Donald Trump
3.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
12.1%
Donald Trump
87.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
7.8%
Donald Trump
92.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
9.5%
Donald Trump
90.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
7.0%
Donald Trump
92.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
99.3%
Donald Trump
0.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
6.2%
Donald Trump
93.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
2.8%
Donald Trump
97.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
10.7%
Donald Trump
89.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
2.7%
Donald Trump
97.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
*Nebraska awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2District 3
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Hillary Clinton
98.8%
Donald Trump
1.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
3.6%
Donald Trump
96.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
99.3%
Donald Trump
0.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
99.8%
Donald Trump
0.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
0.9%
Donald Trump
99.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
99.7%
Donald Trump
0.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
1.8%
Donald Trump
97.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
2.4%
Donald Trump
97.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
1.4%
Donald Trump
98.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
1.5%
Donald Trump
98.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
1.6%
Donald Trump
98.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
1.4%
Donald Trump
98.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Hillary Clinton
0.5%
Donald Trump
99.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
>99.9%
Donald Trump
<0.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Hillary Clinton
0.4%
Donald Trump
99.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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National polls
Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.
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From polls to an adjusted average
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Updates
We update our forecast with new polls as they are released. Here are the polls we added in each update. So far we’ve collected 2,098 state and national polls.
Key
= New
A = ALL ADULTS
RV = REGISTERED VOTERS
LV = LIKELY VOTERS
V = VOTERS
Monday, Oct. 3, at 9:02 a.m. EDT
| POLLSTER | GRADE | SAMPLE | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | LEADER | ADJUSTED LEADER | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| • | National | Sep. 28-29 | Rasmussen/ | C+ | 1,000 | LV | 43% | 40% | 8% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +5 |
Monday, Oct. 3, at 8:25 a.m. | |||||||||||
| • | National | Sep. 30-Oct. 2 | Morning Consult | 1,778 | LV | 42% | 36% | 9% | Clinton +6 | Clinton +6 | |
| • | National | Sep. 26-Oct. 2 | USC Dornsife/ | 2,319 | LV | 42% | 47% | Trump +5 | Tie | ||
| • | National | Sep. 29-30 | Red Oak/ | B | 873 | LV | 36% | 31% | 10% | Clinton +4 | Clinton +4 |
| • | Virginia | Sep. 27-30 | Christopher Newport University | B- | 892 | LV | 42% | 35% | 12% | Clinton +7 | Clinton +7 |
Sunday, Oct. 2, at 4:15 p.m. | |||||||||||
| • | Illinois | Sep. 21-24 | Victory Research | 1,200 | LV | 49% | 35% | 4% | Clinton +14 | Clinton +14 | |
| • | Michigan | Sep. 18-24 | Target Insyght | C | 600 | RV | 46% | 41% | 8% | Clinton +5 | Clinton +5 |
| • | New Jersey | Sep. 6-10 | Rutgers University | B- | 726 | RV | 50% | 29% | 6% | Clinton +21 | Clinton +19 |
Sunday, Oct. 2, at 10:06 a.m. | |||||||||||
| • | National | Sep. 25-Oct. 1 | USC Dornsife/ | 2,481 | LV | 42% | 47% | Trump +5 | Tie | ||
| • | New Mexico | Sep. 27-29 | Research & Polling, Inc. | A | 501 | LV | 35% | 31% | 24% | Clinton +4 | Clinton +4 |
Saturday, Oct. 1, at 3:38 p.m. | |||||||||||
| • | Nevada | Sep. 27-29 | Bendixen & Amandi International | 800 | LV | 45% | 44% | 5% | Clinton +1 | Clinton +1 | |
| • | National | Sep. 23-29 | CVOTER International | C+ | 1,236 | LV | 47% | 49% | Trump +2 | Tie | |
| • | New Jersey | Sep. 22-29 | Stockton College | B | 638 | LV | 46% | 40% | Clinton +6 | Clinton +8 | |
| • | National | Sep. 22-28 | CVOTER International | C+ | 1,234 | LV | 47% | 49% | Trump +2 | Tie | |
Saturday, Oct. 1, at 8:50 a.m. | |||||||||||
| • | National | Sep. 24-30 | USC Dornsife/ | 2,526 | LV | 42% | 47% | Trump +4 | Tie | ||
Friday, Sept. 30, at 6:51 p.m. | |||||||||||
| • | National | Sep. 27-29 | Fox News | A | 911 | LV | 43% | 40% | 8% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +4 |
Friday, Sept. 30, at 3:41 p.m. | |||||||||||
| • | National | Sep. 27-29 | Rasmussen/ | C+ | 1,500 | LV | 43% | 42% | 6% | Clinton +1 | Clinton +3 |
Friday, Sept. 30, at 1:40 p.m. | |||||||||||
| • | National | Sep. 27-29 | The Times-Picayune/ | 2,682 | LV | 45% | 35% | 8% | Clinton +10 | Clinton +8 | |
| • | National | Sep. 25-29 | Ipsos | A- | 2,088 | LV | 41% | 38% | 7% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +3 |
| • | National | Sep. 24-28 | Ipsos | A- | 2,045 | LV | 41% | 38% | 6% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +3 |
| • | National | Sep. 23-27 | Ipsos | A- | 1,888 | LV | 41% | 38% | 7% | Clinton +3 | Clinton +3 |
Friday, Sept. 30, at 12:35 p.m. | |||||||||||
| • | Nevada | Sep. 27-29 | Suffolk University | B+ | 500 | LV | 44% | 38% | 7% | Clinton +6 | Clinton +6 |
Friday, Sept. 30, at 11:37 a.m. | |||||||||||
| • | Florida | Sep. 28-29 | Opinion Savvy | C- | 619 | LV | 47% | 46% | 4% | Tie | Tie |
Monday, Oct. 3, at 9:02 a.m. EDT
Monday, Oct. 3, at 8:25 a.m. EDT
Sunday, Oct. 2, at 4:15 p.m. EDT
Sunday, Oct. 2, at 10:06 a.m. EDT
Saturday, Oct. 1, at 3:38 p.m. EDT
Saturday, Oct. 1, at 8:50 a.m. EDT
Friday, Sept. 30, at 6:51 p.m. EDT
Friday, Sept. 30, at 3:41 p.m. EDT
Friday, Sept. 30, at 1:40 p.m. EDT
Friday, Sept. 30, at 12:35 p.m. EDT
Friday, Sept. 30, at 11:37 a.m. EDT
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