West Long Branch, NJ – Hillary Clinton has a 4 point lead
over Donald Trump among voters likely to cast ballots in November. While this is down from a 7 point lead last
month, Clinton continues to have an advantage on the question of presidential
temperament. The latest Monmouth
University Poll also finds that 3-in-4 voters plan to watch tonight’s
debate, but very few actually expect to learn anything that will impact their
choice of candidate. A majority also
feel that third party candidates should have been included in the debate and
that debate moderators should fact check the candidates.
Currently, 46% of likely voters support Clinton and 42% back
Trump, with 8% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein
of the Green Party. Support among all
registered voters stands at 45% Clinton, 40% Trump, 8% Johnson, and 3%
Stein. In late August, Clinton’s likely
voter support was the same at 46% while Trump’s support was lower at 39%. Third party support is basically unchanged.
Clinton has the support of 91% of Democrats while Trump gets
the backing of 85% of Republicans. This
result is in line with Clinton’s partisan support over the summer, but
represents an improvement for Trump, whose GOP support was below 80% in prior
polls. Independents prefer Trump over
Clinton by 39% to 33%. In late August,
Clinton had a 5 point advantage among independents while earlier last month
Trump held a slim 2 point edge.
Clinton leads among millennial voters under 35 years old by
48% to 28%, although a sizable number give their support to Johnson (13%) and
Stein (4%). Voters who are 35 to 54
years old split their support at 42% for Trump and 41% for Clinton. Voters age 55 and older are also divided at
47% for Clinton and 46% for Trump.
Clinton had a clear edge among all these age groups last month.
“Clinton’s support has softened since the summer, but she has
still managed to grab a share of those who tend to vote Republican,” said
Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling
Institute.
Both major party candidates continue to have high negative
ratings, although Trump’s standing has improved slightly. Currently, 36% of voters have a favorable
opinion of Clinton and 54% have an unfavorable view of her, compared with a 34%
to 51% rating last month. Likewise, 32%
of voters have a favorable opinion of Trump and 57% have an unfavorable view of
him, compared with a 26% to 57% rating last month.
Clinton has a slight edge on the “lesser of two evils”
metric. Nearly half of voters (47%) say
it is very important to them to make sure Trump does not get elected. Somewhat fewer voters (41%) feel the same
about Clinton. When the responses to
these two questions are combined, 13% of voters say it is at least somewhat
important to keep both Clinton and Trump out of the White House, 44% say it is
important to stop Trump, 36% say it is important to stop Clinton, and 7% say
they don’t feel it is important to stop either candidate from being
elected. Among voters who are currently
supporting a third party candidate or are undecided, 43% say it is important to
keep both major party nominees from being elected, 18% say it is important only
to stop Trump and 17% say it is important only to stop Clinton, while 22% say
stopping either candidate is not important to them.
Clinton has an advantage over Trump on presidential
temperament although there is no edge when voters are asked about actual issue
areas. Just under 6-in-10 voters (58%)
say Clinton has the right temperament to be president, including 47% of
undecided voters and third party supporters.
Only one-third (35%) feel that Trump has a presidential temperament,
including just 15% of undecided voters and third party supporters.
Voters are divided on who would better handle two key issue
areas. On the economy and jobs, 48%
prefer Trump and 48% prefer Clinton. On
dealing with the threat of terrorism on U.S. soil, 48% prefer Clinton and 45%
prefer Trump. Trump has an advantage on
these two issues, though, among voters who are undecided or supporting a third
party candidate – 44% to 32% over Clinton on the economy and 43% to 26% over
Clinton on terrorism.
“If persuadable voters’ final calculation comes down to temperament,
Clinton should pick up a few points. If
it comes down to issues, Trump may see a bump,” said Murray.
The First Debate
Three-in-four voters (75%) plan to watch the first
debate. However, they are more likely to
be those who already back Clinton (81%) or Trump (79%) rather than undecided
voters or those supporting a third party candidate (48%).
Despite the anticipated interest, very few voters expect that
the debate’s outcome will have an impact on their ultimate candidate
choice. Just 2% say it is very likely
that the debate will cause them to change their mind or help them decide on
their vote choice. Another 10% say the
debate is somewhat likely to have an impact.
Fully 87% do not see any possibility where the debate will actually have
an impact on their vote choice. Those
who anticipate the possibility of changing their vote because of the debate
include just 8% of Clinton supporters, 12% of Trump supporters and only 25% of
those who are undecided or supporting a third party candidate.
“Pundits expect that a lot will be riding on the first
debate. The voters? Not so much,” said Murray.
There has been a bit of controversy over whether third party
candidates should be included in the presidential debates and what the role of
the moderators should be. A majority of
voters (55%) believe that either Gary Johnson or Jill Stein should have been
allowed on the debate stage tonight, with the vast majority of this group
saying that both candidates should have been included. Just 39% of voters agree with the debate
commission’s decision to limit participation to the two major party nominees.
Most voters (60%) believe one of the duties of the moderators
is to fact check candidates who state false information during the
debates. Only 31% say the moderators
should leave it to the candidates to point out any false statements by their
opponent. Trump supporters (46%) are
less likely than either Clinton backers (69%) or third party supporters and
undecided voters (69%) to say that the debate moderators should fact check the
candidates.
The Monmouth University
Poll also asked voters what debate question they would ask the two nominees
if they had the opportunity. In general,
voters want to hear specific proposals from the candidates, such as the Republican
voter from North Carolina who asks, “What would be your plan to bring jobs back
to the United States; a detailed plan?”
The main topics voters want to hear about are the economy, terrorism and
national security, taxes, immigration, and social security.
Given the overwhelmingly negative outlook for this election,
perhaps the most telling question came from the Rhode Island independent voter,
who simply asks, “Why?”
The Monmouth University
Poll was conducted by telephone from September 22 to 25, 2016 with 802 registered
voters in the United States. The
results in this release have a margin of error of + 3.5 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth
University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
QUESTIONS AND RESULTS
(* Some columns may not add to 100% due
to rounding.)
1/2. If
the election for President was today, would
you vote for Donald Trump the
Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, or Jill
Stein of the Green Party? [IF UNDECIDED: If
you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you
lean toward – Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [NAMES
WERE ROTATED]
Registered voters
40% Donald
Trump
45% Hillary
Clinton
8% Gary Johnson
3% Jill Stein
1% (VOL) Other candidate
3% (VOL) Undecided
0% (VOL) No one
Likely voters
42% Donald
Trump
46% Hillary
Clinton
8% Gary Johnson
2% Jill Stein
1% (VOL) Other candidate
2% (VOL) Undecided
0% (VOL) No one
HEAD TO HEAD – TRUMP v. CLINTON [Johnson/Stein/Other supporters reassigned to
major party nominee they lean toward]:
Registered voters
43% Donald
Trump
49% Hillary
Clinton
5% (VOL) Other candidate
3% (VOL) Undecided
0% (VOL) No one
Likely voters
46% Donald
Trump
49% Hillary
Clinton
4% (VOL) Other candidate
2% (VOL) Undecided
0% (VOL) No one
[QUESTIONS 3 & 4 WERE ROTATED]
3. Is
your general impression of Donald Trump
favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?
32% Favorable
57% Unfavorable
12% No
opinion
4. Is
your general impression of Hillary
Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?
36% Favorable
54% Unfavorable
10% No
opinion
Regardless
of who you may support for president…
[QUESTIONS 5 & 6 WERE ROTATED]
5. How
important is it to you to make sure that Donald Trump does NOT get elected
president – very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at
all important?
47% Very important
9% Somewhat
important
7% Not
too important
34% Not at all important
3% (VOL)
Don’t know
6. How
important is it to you to make sure that Hillary Clinton does NOT get elected
president – very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at
all important?
41% Very
important
8% Somewhat important
8% Not too important
40% Not
at all important
3% (VOL) Don’t know
[QUESTIONS 7
& 8 WERE ROTATED]
7. Regardless
of whether you would vote for him, do you think Donald Trump does or does not
have the right temperament to be president?
35% Does
61% Does
not
4% (VOL) Don’t know
8. Regardless
of whether you would vote for her, do you think Hillary Clinton does or does
not have the right temperament to be president?
58% Does
39% Does
not
4% (VOL) Don’t know
[QUESTIONS 9 & 10 WERE ROTATED]
9. Who
do you trust more to handle the economy and jobs – Donald Trump or Hillary
Clinton? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
48% Trump
48% Clinton
4%
(VOL) Neither
0% (VOL) Don’t know
10. Who do you trust more to handle the threat
of terrorism on U.S. soil – Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
45% Trump
48% Clinton
6% (VOL)
Neither
2% (VOL)
Don’t know
11. As
you may know the first presidential debate between Trump and Clinton will be
held Monday night. Do you plan to watch
the debate live or not?
75% Yes
18% No
3% (VOL)
May watch clips later
3% (VOL)
Don’t know
12. [IF VOTE CHOICE IS DECIDED] How likely is
it that the debate will change your mind about which candidate you intend to
support – very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely? [IF
VOTE CHOICE IS UNDECIDED] How likely
is it that the debate will help you make up your mind about which candidate to
support – very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely?
2% Very
likely
10% Somewhat likely
87% Not likely
1% (VOL)
Don’t know
13. Should
the debate include third party candidates Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, or should
it be only the two major party nominees on stage? [If INCLUDE: Should the debate have included Johnson or Stein, or
both of them?]
6% Johnson only
0% Stein only
49% Both
of them
1% (VOL) Depends
39% Only
major party nominees
5% (VOL) Don’t know
14. Should
the debate moderators fact check a candidate who states false information
during the debate, or should they leave it to the candidates to point out any
false information stated by their opponent?
60% Should
fact check
31% Leave
to candidates
4% (VOL) Both
5% (VOL) Don’t know
15. If
you could ask one short question of the presidential candidates at the debate,
what would it be? [VERBATIM ANSWERS WERE RECORDED]
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[Q16-27 held for future
release]
METHODOLOGY
The Monmouth
University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University
Polling Institute from September 22 to 25, 2016 with a national random sample
of 802 registered voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in
English, including 402 drawn from a list of registered voters (201 landline
/ 201 cell phone) and 400 using random digit dial (200 landline / 200 cell phone).
Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting
and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and
partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data
collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list
sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can
say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum
margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points (unadjusted for sample
design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table
below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that
question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce
error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Click on pdf file
link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.