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SilverDebate Discussion Thread (self.badeconomics)

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[–]mrregmonkeyONLY THE MODS CAN FIX BADECONOMICS 9ポイント10ポイント  (6子コメント)

Oh god. 538 has it as a coin flip.

This is fucking scary.

I would like off Donald's wild ride.

[–]besttrousers 3ポイント4ポイント  (3子コメント)

I really don't understand their trend line adjustment. Basically, all their swing state polls would show a slight Hillary lead, except that they are spotting Trump ~2 points or so.

I want to believe that this is effectively what is causing the higher variance in 538's model, vs. Upshot/Prediction markets.

cc /u/Jericho_Hill

[–]mrregmonkeyONLY THE MODS CAN FIX BADECONOMICS 3ポイント4ポイント  (1子コメント)

Yeah I don't get the trendline adjustment.

JH also wrote about in /r/hillaryclinton about how Nate is including polls with bad methodology and that's adding variance.

I feel like he's, to some extent, adding a bunch of variable to increase the variance of the model which is helpful if you want to draw traffic while not being objectively wrong. I mean Trump is winning NJ like 16% of the time. I don't like to use "gut checks" but I just don't believe he's that high for that state! That looks like an overfit model with too much variance.

IDK. At the same time I'm at least partially reacting this way because it's a result I really really really do not like.

[–]dangersandwich 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Is Sam Wang's model any easier to understand? I haven't had time to read his methodology posts. I get that it's a relatively simpler statistical model and less of a blackbox than Nate's.

ref post: https://np.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/51ls00/538_vs_princeton_election_consortium_silver_vs/d7d5nbl

[–]mobysniper 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Wolfers tweeted this critique of 538's model from David Rothschild out today. Actually, Wolfers has tweeted a lot of good critique of 538. 538 is pretty far off from most of the other big aggregators, and their model has been much more volatile than most. I'm hopeful that their model will swing back up again in the next few weeks, but I wouldn't put much stock in it either way.

[–]mrregmonkeyONLY THE MODS CAN FIX BADECONOMICS 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

I don't like Nate's response of

OMG U GUISE R MAD TRUMP IS WINNING!1111 DAT IS THE ONLY REASON U CRITICIZE ME

Like Nate, you are way off other aggregators and are better than this. Especially if people are bring more valid criticisms vs. unskewing polls.

[–]Webby2750 6ポイント7ポイント  (4子コメント)

The wall is down. The reign of the mods is over. The reign of the alts shall begin...

[–]yorchids 6ポイント7ポイント  (1子コメント)

cackles uncontrollably

[–]Viol33In the long run, we're all archived and cannot be upvoted 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Is that from the cauliflower pig orc thing?

[–]KillTheEducationShy 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Democracy is death.

[–]theojones2© 2016 Paid For By Correct The Record 2ポイント3ポイント  (5子コメント)

Do you think we will get the crude and vulgar Trump of the GOP debates tonight or the Trump of the last few weeks that tries to act rationally?

[–]Viol33In the long run, we're all archived and cannot be upvoted 11ポイント12ポイント  (0子コメント)

My fear is that he is able to give an emotionally compelling rendition of his stump speech early in the debate with Hillary being unengaged and wonkish. Just 15 minutes of that would be enough to allow the Twitter noise about her being low-energy and boring to control the entire post-debate narrative.

She needs to get him pissed-off, on his heels, and feeling emasculated EARLY.

[–]BEE_REAL_I've made a huge mistake 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

He has no teleprompter, there's no way he's gonna act like a regular human being

[–]SuhDewwKeynes did Tulip Mania 4ポイント5ポイント  (0子コメント)

I predict Trump can control himself from being a sputtering asshole for exactly 35 minutes. After Clinton prods him a few good times, I see him losing his grip and regressing into a total meltdown. He can't fake 90 minutes, we've seen how abysmal his impulse controls are.

That's just my personal praxx though.

[–]josiahstevenson 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

inshallah the former

[–]DracoX872Artos Killed Harambe 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

つ ◕_◕ ༽つ HILLARY TAKE MY ENERGY つ ◕_◕ ༽つ

[–]samdmankrug love 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

i really really want hillary to wipe the floor with trump and expose him for the charlatan he is.

but to be honest that should have happened long ago

[–]besttrousers 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I've made this a 'silver' thread to reduce the spammy comments.

[–]mrregmonkeyONLY THE MODS CAN FIX BADECONOMICS 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Thank mr. Pants

[–]Webby912Whiny baby being whiny -4ポイント-3ポイント  (10子コメント)

stopdemocracynow

[–]BEE_REAL_I've made a huge mistake 11ポイント12ポイント  (4子コメント)

#teachwebbyhowtohashtag

[–]Webby912Whiny baby being whiny -1ポイント0ポイント  (3子コメント)

Omg how'd you do that

[–]BEE_REAL_I've made a huge mistake 10ポイント11ポイント  (0子コメント)

#checkthecommentsourceyouluddite

[–]Homeboy_JesusOn average economists are pretty mean 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

Put a backslash before the character that reddit's text box will change. "\#stopdemocracynow" would render your post properly.

[–]Webby912Whiny baby being whiny 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

#thanks

[–]VonCrunchhausen 0ポイント1ポイント  (1子コメント)

I'd rather not let Trump become dictator-for-life, thanks.

[–]Webby912Whiny baby being whiny 5ポイント6ポイント  (0子コメント)

Democracy led us here, you think Bernanke would have hand selected trump?

[–]TychoTiberiusTexas Toast 1ポイント2ポイント  (1子コメント)

Oh how I've missed you :)

[–]Webby912Whiny baby being whiny -5ポイント-4ポイント  (0子コメント)

thirdpartyvoterswillburn

[–]KillTheEducationShy -2ポイント-1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Technocracy is meant to take its place, with Silicon Valley gripping the scepter.

They want to end populism entirely.

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/09/revenge-of-the-nerds/501344/

I am switching sides. Join me. Let us end populism.