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The Reuters/Ipsos estimate of turnout
Winning the White House depends as much on who comes out to vote as which candidate Americans prefer. Each week, we poll more than 15,000 people, then factor in likely turnout among key demographics to see how voting would play out in the Electoral College. Explore different scenarios.
Or read how we did it.
Updated | Thursday September 01, 2016
Clinton
273
44% of vote
Predicted winner
Trump
182
41% of vote
Needed to win
High confidence
Mod.
Low
Too close
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Name |
Votes |
Winner |
Confidence |
Clinton |
Trump |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | Trump | High | 39% | 52% |
| Alaska | 3 | Insufficient data | — | — | |
| Arizona | 11 | Trump | Low | 41% | 45% |
| Arkansas | 6 | Trump | Low | 42% | 48% |
| California | 55 | Clinton | High | 63% | 24% |
| Colorado | 9 | Clinton | Moderate | 45% | 39% |
| Connecticut | 7 | Clinton | Moderate | 47% | 39% |
| Delaware | 3 | Clinton | High / Margin uncertain | — | — |
| Florida | 29 | Clinton | Low | 48% | 45% |
| Georgia | 16 | Trump | Moderate | 41% | 47% |
| Hawaii | 4 | Insufficient data | — | — | |
| Idaho | 4 | Trump | High | 28% | 58% |
| Illinois | 20 | Clinton | High | 50% | 37% |
| Indiana | 11 | Trump | High | 32% | 56% |
| Iowa | 6 | Too close | 41% | 44% | |
| Kansas | 6 | Trump | High | 37% | 52% |
| Kentucky | 8 | Trump | Low | 42% | 46% |
| Louisiana | 8 | Trump | High | 37% | 57% |
| Maine | 4 | Too close | 42% | 42% | |
| Maryland | 10 | Clinton | High | 52% | 32% |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Clinton | High | 48% | 32% |
| Michigan | 16 | Too close | 41% | 42% | |
| Minnesota | 10 | Clinton | High | 42% | 33% |
| Mississippi | 6 | Trump | High | 30% | 59% |
| Missouri | 10 | Trump | High | 35% | 51% |
| Montana | 3 | Insufficient data | — | — | |
| Nebraska | 5 | Trump | Low | 38% | 45% |
| Nevada | 6 | Clinton | Moderate | 43% | 35% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Too close | 44% | 45% | |
| New Jersey | 14 | Clinton | High | 47% | 36% |
| New Mexico | 5 | Insufficient data | — | — | |
| New York | 29 | Clinton | High | 50% | 28% |
| North Carolina | 15 | Clinton | Moderate | 49% | 44% |
| North Dakota | 3 | Trump | High / Margin uncertain | — | — |
| Ohio | 18 | Trump | Low | 43% | 46% |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Trump | High | 37% | 48% |
| Oregon | 7 | Clinton | Moderate | 44% | 39% |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | Clinton | Moderate | 48% | 42% |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Insufficient data | — | — | |
| South Carolina | 9 | Too close | 45% | 48% | |
| South Dakota | 3 | Insufficient data | — | — | |
| Tennessee | 11 | Trump | High | 31% | 49% |
| Texas | 38 | Trump | High | 32% | 49% |
| The District of Columbia | 3 | Insufficient data | — | — | |
| Utah | 6 | Too close | 34% | 35% | |
| Vermont | 3 | Clinton | High / Margin uncertain | — | — |
| Virginia | 13 | Clinton | High | 50% | 37% |
| Washington | 12 | Clinton | High | 45% | 35% |
| West Virginia | 5 | Trump | High | 38% | 55% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Too close | 38% | 38% | |
| Wyoming | 3 | Insufficient data | — | — |
Scenario The Reuters/Ipsos estimate of turnout
In this scenario:
Currently, Reuters/Ipsos estimates overall turnout at around 60%, although that rate varies among different demographic groups. Minority turnout, for example, is expected to be about 43%, while about 59% of African-American women and 69% of White men are projected to cast ballots.
Clinton’s chance of winning is more than 95%,
by a margin of about 85 electoral votes.
Create your own
-
The Reuters/Ipsos estimate of turnout
-
How Trump could win
-
What if millennials stay home?
-
A historic surge of less-wealthy white male voters
-
What if only women could vote?
-
What if only men could vote?
Explore this scenario. Or create your own.
This scenario is based on our default turnout.
Try it yourself. Click on “overall turnout” below to adjust turnout. Or click on “add a group” to start building your own version of how this campaign will play out.
Overall turnout
60%, equal to the Reuters turnout model.
▾
Overallx
Adjust turnout
60%
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You can adjust overall turnout using the slider above.
SOURCE: Reuters/IPSOS NOTE: These weekly tracking poll results may differ from the Reuters/Ipsos Polling Explorer, which is based on a separate daily tracking poll. For more details, read methodology.
Graphic: Charlie Szymanski, Matt Weber, and Christine Chan. API: Ken Ellis. Polling: Maurice Tamman and Chris Kahn
Graphic: Charlie Szymanski, Matt Weber, and Christine Chan. API: Ken Ellis. Polling: Maurice Tamman and Chris Kahn