全 23 件のコメント

[–]Zenitram 11ポイント12ポイント  (14子コメント)

Ah yes , the perfect study. Set up for failure so opposing sides can agree that either it proves failure, or was poorly conducted.

[–]Mylon 0ポイント1ポイント  (13子コメント)

This is the model for social programs in America. Always underfunded so when they fail to meet their goals the Republicans can say, "Told ya so". Not that it helps that the Democrats usually design the program to run through lobbyist businesses, but that's another matter.

[–]Joeblowme123 2ポイント3ポイント  (0子コメント)

Most programs run far over budget.

[–]Zenitram 5ポイント6ポイント  (11子コメント)

Social programs are always underfunded because the more they provide, the higher the demand for them becomes. Social programs have very little cost to those that utilize them. They are designed to be popular, not difficult. They are inherently flawed, like most government programs. There is a very real income trap that keeps people reliant on the state. It is by design, and the Democrats are the biggest culprits.

[–]martong93 2ポイント3ポイント  (4子コメント)

Generally speaking, it's a myth that a significant portion of welfare users are dependent and unmotivated to change. Of course it's not zero, but as far as being a negative externality, it's negligible.

[–]anondude47 4ポイント5ポイント  (2子コメント)

it's a myth that a significant portion of welfare users are dependent and unmotivated to change.

Do you have data to back this? I'd think otherwise.

[–]Zenitram 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

I never said unmotivated to change. There are income traps built into the social welfare structure that provides incentives to remain in the system. This isn't a matter of being lazy, it is a matter of making a choice that puts your family in a better position.

Fraud in these programs in rampant, but it is far too expensive to investigate and track. If you simply review the tax returns of people of tipped industries and cross reference that with similar numbers reliant on state aid, if becomes apparent that lying about your income or miss reporting your income is the norm and not the exception.

[–]DracoX872 -1ポイント0ポイント  (5子コメント)

the more they provide, the higher the demand for them becomes

That's not how supply & demand works. If they increase supply, people will accept a greater quantity of whatever is being supplied; demand doesn't change.

edit: bolded for clarity

They are inherently flawed, like most government programs.

Citation please on how most gov programs are flawed?

There is a very real income trap that keeps people reliant on the state.

Only welfare traps. EITC or NIT can promote greater productivity by incentivizing the pursuit of more income.

It is by design, and the Democrats are the biggest culprits.

Rule 6: nakedly political comments.

[–]Zenitram -2ポイント-1ポイント  (4子コメント)

Rule 6: nakedly political comments.

Of course you ignore the comment that was in reply to...

That's not how supply & demand works.

Uh, its free stuff. If they make the programs more appealing it makes work less appealing. UI is a perfect example. Why in the hell would someone take a minimum wage job to come off UI when the job pays not even 10% more than UI? Couple that with the fact someone can easily work off the table while receiving the benefit.

Have you ever used these programs? Do you live a bubble where you don't know anyone that has?

And you can make claims about the EITC and NIT without a citation, but require one from me.

Very typical.

[–]DracoX872 2ポイント3ポイント  (3子コメント)

Of course you ignore the comment that was in reply to...

I reported his too, don't worry.

Uh, its free stuff.

Firstly, read past the first sentence. There's a difference between quantity demanded and demand itself. If supply increases (say though making programs more appealing), then the quantity demanded increases; the demand itself does not increase. This doesn't change your perception of what's happening; more people will enter the program, but your terminology is wrong.

UI is a perfect example. Why in the hell would someone take a minimum wage job to come off UI when the job pays not even 10% more than UI?

People may still pursue a part-time job to greater the quality of their leisure. Yes, they will work less, but it's not a guarantee that they will stop working entirely. See this example. Providing a cash transfer such as UI would shift the budget line but still remain tangent with the indifference curve. The curve itself exemplifies diminishing returns on leisure with reduced disposable income and diminishing returns on disposable income (acquired through more work) with reduced leisure time. I agree we'd see people working less, but is this an improvement for society as a whole? Does the social welfare match the costs? I'm not sure.

Have you ever used these programs? Do you live a bubble where you don't know anyone that has?

Do I need to use these programs to understand how they work? Is it a necessity that I be poor to suggest we rework welfare?

And you can make claims about the EITC and NIT without a citation, but require one from me.

EITC works in a sort of opposite way to UI. Rather than a flat transfer that increases the budget line, it creates a kink that leads people to work more. Less formally, it subsidizes income, which leads people to pursue more. On the other hand, income tax itself is, obviously, a tax on income, therefore it reduces the incentive to pursue more of it; because income is linked to productivity, this may be considered distortionary.

Negative Income Tax is the opposite and may be considered distortionary as well. However, as a replacement to welfare, it may be an improvement. As you noted, welfare promotes more leisure while providing financial aid; NIT, by subsiding income, provides the very same financial aid without the flat cash transfer effect on the budget line. In effect, it creates an incentive to perform some amount of work to "earn" the welfare. This may lead to people working harder such as in this example that I drew up where NIT is provided after a minimum amount of work; here the amount of leisure people engage in goes from Q1 to Q2. It may also lead to people working less, empirically and theoretically. Additionally, it may simply be more efficient; for example, rather than taxing people and then giving them back welfare, it's easier to just tax people less in the first place. Here's some more information. A significant goal of both tax programs is to avoid the perverse incentives of an existing welfare system.

[–]Zenitram [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

People may still pursue a part-time job to greater the quality of their leisure.

Uhh, you literally have no clue how it feels. You literally wouldn't understand. Thanks for the post, but you are wrong. If you work on these sorts of benefits, your benefits are cut be the amount you earn, or more. Working is literally a bad decision. You obviously don't understand that very basic concept.

We are in the midst of the Second Great Depression and the welfare state hides it plain set.

[–]Mylon [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

A very nice article. Thank you for linking that. I keep hearing all of these reports that the market is fine but those reports only exist in the news. I'm not seeing much evidence of it. We need to shut down too big to jail banks, not prop them up with negative interest rates.

[–]DracoX872 [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Uhh, you literally have no clue how it feels. You literally wouldn't understand. Thanks for the post, but you are wrong.

This is my favorite thing that you posted so far, because I've been agreeing with you the whole time on the fundamentals of the discussion. I'm simply putting it in actual economic terminology and then explaining some solutions.

If you work on these sorts of benefits, your benefits are cut be the amount you earn, or more.

That's literally what the perverse incentives of welfare are, which is also what NIT or EITC could stop. Good thing I already wrote about this in the comment you replied to.

You obviously don't understand that very basic concept.

You obviously can't do basic reading comprehension or understand economics. I already went over this. I'm not disagreeing with you. It's just that you're too stupid to read further than what incites you to post your next comment. Or, maybe it's my own fault for engaging in a person who doesn't understand supply & demand.

We are in the midst of the Second Great Depression and the welfare state hides it plain set.

Zero hedge is trash.

[–]HarlanCedeno 11ポイント12ポイント  (7子コメント)

Governments need to be less timid in giving basic income a try: The more countries, cities and provinces run their own tests under different conditions, the more material there will be for everyone to examine in search of best practices.

[–]Uptight_Kraut 8ポイント9ポイント  (6子コメント)

The biggest question that needs to be answered is can a nation successfully fund a nationwide true UBI. That can't be tested, to test it is to do it.

[–]1635 0ポイント1ポイント  (5子コメント)

That can't be tested,

If you know what UBI will cost per year, then you know how much in taxes it will take to fund it.

[–]Uptight_Kraut 2ポイント3ポイント  (4子コメント)

Finding out if such a substantial tax increase is sustainable and whether the benefits of the distribution outweigh the disincentives, that will be the experimemt.

[–]1635 -2ポイント-1ポイント  (3子コメント)

Finding out if such a substantial tax increase is sustainable

Why wouldn't it be sustainable?

and whether the benefits of the distribution outweigh the disincentives,

Do you mean the disincentive to get a job? I thought you get UBI no matter what your employment status is.

[–]Uptight_Kraut 0ポイント1ポイント  (2子コメント)

For a meager 10k UBI for all adults, after cannibalizing social security and welfare expenditures, you'd need to raise an extra Trillion per year, 30% of current tax revenue.

By disincentives I mostly meant disincentives from such massive taxes. High earners might leave the country like some did in France and depending on how you burden businesses that will have effects too. Do you think nothing would change? I'm not sure it would be sustainable.

Proponents say that poor people spending more money will totally balance that out but that's speculative. Also with only $10'000 you've made most retirees a lot worse off than they were with SS.

[–]1635 [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

Also with only $10'000 you've made most retirees a lot worse off than they were with SS.

One thing about UBI is it is a clear political loser.

[–]ghostofpennwast [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Good thing it is pretty easy to change the social security system /s.