In a survey sampling more than 3,700 registered Hispanic voters (with a margin of error that’s less than 2 percentage points, due to the huge sample), America’s Voice, a pro-immigration group, found essentially what media and other pollsters have uncovered: These voters really, really don’t like Donald Trump.
Hillary Clinton gets 70 percent of the sampled Hispanic voters. Trump gets 19 percent (less than Mitt Romney, who got 27 percent in 2012). What’s more, only 15 percent are certain they will vote for him. Sixty-one percent say they are certain to vote for Clinton. Trump, as you might imagine, is hugely unpopular with Hispanics — 74 percent have an unfavorable view of him. The poll was taken before the vitriolic speech in Arizona and the exit of a number of advisers from Trump’s Hispanic advisory council. It is safe to assume Trump’s numbers are now even worse than these.
Even among Hispanic Republicans (like those who repudiated him after the Arizona speech), only 76 percent of them support Trump. Hillary Clinton gets 93 percent of Democratic Hispanics.
Thirty-two percent of the Hispanics polled list jobs and the economy as one of the most important issues, but 38 percent list deportations/immigration. This bears out the belief from pro-immigration-reform Republicans and most credible pollsters that it’s hard to get Hispanics to vote for you if you want to deport their friends and relatives.
Trump is on track to do worse than Romney with Hispanics, African Americans, women, whites and college-educated voters. He’s doing much worse among Republicans. When pundits talk about a path to the presidency, they should try to identify states without many Hispanics, African Americans, women and college-educated voters. He’ll need enough of those to add up to 270 electoral votes. Oh, you say, “There aren’t states like that“? That is precisely what makes discussions about a path to the presidency devoid of meaning.
Battleground states (which America’s Voice polled and will release next week) in particular tend to reflect the national trend; Trump is losing in virtually all of them and turning Arizona (with lots of Hispanics) and Georgia (lots of African Americans) into swing states. Unless Trump stops offending some or all of the groups who live in these states (and everywhere else), he’s going to lose a lot more battleground states than he will win.
Part of the Trump effect is seen in the states with Senate races. Polls show Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) with an average 8-point lead; Trump is up 2.5 percent (within the margin of error). Georgia is a dead heat at the presidential level; Republican incumbent Sen. Johnny Isakson leads by 8 points. In Florida, Trump is down by 2.7 points; Sen. Marco Rubio is up 5.7 points. In Ohio, Clinton is up nearly 4 points, while Republican incumbent Sen. Rob Portman is 7.5 percent ahead in his race.
You get the picture. Trump is running behind other Republicans in competitive states by a substantial margin. Imagine if the Republicans nominated someone for president who was only as popular, on average, as the GOP incumbent senators. The GOP would in all likelihood be tied or a little ahead of Clinton. Great going there, Republicans.