Both this race and 2012 have spent a lot of time where the Democrat was about a 75/25 favorite, but the perception of them way different.
In 2012, people had trouble believing Romney only had a 25% chance. This year, they have trouble believing Trump really has a 25% chance.
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@NateSilver538 i think people are generally having a hard time believing Trump is the nominee in the first place... -
@NateSilver538 Because the dreaded eyeball test yields very different results for a President Romney and a President Trump. -
@NateSilver538 25% percent chance of@realDonaldTrump taking the presidency is 25% too high.#Trump is worse than unqualified, he's a threat -
@NateSilver538 not sure where you this from. Everyone I know is deathly afraid of Trump and think its 50/50. -
@NateSilver538 Doesn't help having so many media sources trying to paint it as a toss up. -
@NateSilver538 What are your thoughts on Monster Vote? Level of impact? -
@NateSilver538 This is a fabulous example of the phenomenon that helped Kahneman get the Nobel prize -
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@NateSilver538 Nate, can you see why any chance of Trump winning is troubling. -
@pdog2009@NateSilver538 Nate’s just reporting the facts. I’m sure he’s personally troubled by the possibility just like the rest of us.
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@NateSilver538 Also Romney was polling way ahead of Trump in 2012. Trump is stuck at 37-40%. Your model is far more bullish than most. -
@NateSilver538 it's hard to believe he has a 25% chance when he can't break 40% in the polls - high undecideds create uncertainty. -
@NateSilver538 should be lower than 25%? romney had GOP support at 90% -
@NateSilver538 "People" are college-educated followers of political news; a cohort much more supportive of Romney than of Trump. -
@NateSilver538, it's like, the big difference between fiction & non-fiction, is that fiction has to be believable. Same thing. -
@NateSilver538 I am having trouble believing that ANYONE other than The Donald's family or Russian collaborators will vote for him in Nov. -
@NateSilver538 Because he doesn't. States like CO and VA are off the table. States like AZ and GA are in play. It's over. -
@NateSilver538 time to unskew the polls again -
@NateSilver538 do you by chance have a database of races (state or national) that went into Election Day at 70-80%?
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