When Van Gaal was first appointed as Manchester United manager, he was praised by the media and fans as a tactical genius, and he had the CV to back it up. However two years on the Dutchman is loathed by those very same people. His possession based style was brandished as boring and futile. Partially due to fan pressure, and also because of an unsatisfactory league campaign, Van Gaal was axed and Jose Mourinho named his successor.
In 2008 Mourinho was eager to be at the helm in Camp Nou. After excelling through a tough process two questions were repeatedly raised. One about whether his persona was right for the job as he has a history of playing mind games in the press room which was against the “Més que un club” rhetoric. The other being whether his pragmatic and unglamourous style would able to be adapted to accommodate to what the Barca fans demanded. Ultimately, Josep Guardiola was given the job and an enraged Mourinho joined fierce rivals Real Madrid in order to take vengeance and shake the label of being a defensive manager.
This lead to a Madrid team built on quick transitions, getting the best out of Cristiano Ronaldo in his prime, with the rest of the front being made up of Angel Di Maria, Karim Benzema and new signing Mesut Ozil. This lead to a La Liga and a Copa Del Rey. This has since been Mourinho’s go to response whenever accused of being a pragmatist or being unable to entertain fans. His Real Madrid team are possibly the best counter-attacking side in the history of football, and this is what needs to be brought to the theatre of dreams.
Style of play
Do not expect the same rigidity of positional play to be deployed at Old Trafford that was seen under the Van Gaal era. However with that being said, elements of this may be employed and this understanding could help Mourinho build more counter-pressing structures to allow for quick transitions. Since transitions from attack to defence have always been a key part of Mourinho’s philosophy, especially in midfield.
However the biggest change in the new era is likely to be the attacking philosophy, with a new emphasis on directness. Elements of his old Madrid team, and Sir Alex Ferguson’s United are likely to be combined in order to achieve both directness and numerical superiority in the centre. This leads to change from his days at Chelsea where fans were often bored by the slow possessions, combined with a deep defensive block.
In possession fans can expect more fireworks, but in the defensive phase of the game, Mourinho is unlikely to morph to the exciting high-press that may be seen at Liverpool or Manchester City. This will help to maintain the solid defensive numbers show under Van Gaal and will force opposition shots to be from range as the Red Devils maintain a deep, compact defensive shape.
The new style should act as a massive boost to the dreary offensive numbers that were seen under Van Gaal as United scored 7th in the rankings for Paul Riley’s expected goals model. This is despite scoring 15th for shots in the league, making Manchester United’s games some of the dullest in the league.
Potential/Preferred line up
This is the team I think Mourinho should start the season with, not the team I necessarily think he will start. It may seem like there are some bizarre admissions and omissions, but as we delve through the stats, hopefully the logic will become clearer.
Memphis Depay
If you are unfamiliar with Ted Knutson’s football radars then find out more here. These have been taken from @fussballradars twitter, who are definitely worth a follow and also take requests.
The left radar is taken from Memphis’s last season at PSV, and shows a pretty fucking phenomenal output, especially for a 20-year-old. 5.41 shots per 90 puts him in an elite bracket along cozying up to Ronaldo. And the NPG90 is again ridiculous, especially for a winger.
However then we saw what everyone remembers. A huge drop off. Shot output was still solid if not monstrous. Dribbles were maintained. But real output had been lost. For me there is no way this can purely be explained by the change in quality between the Eredivisie and the Premier League. I believe this is largely down to LVG’s system. Therefore I think it would be a huge mistake by Mourinho not to give Memphis a good amount of minutes, as he could have one of Europe’s next truly elite players on his hands.
Rooney and Rashford
Two players I have completely left out of my potential line-up. How could I? A club legend and a wonderkid with an eye for goal?
Yes, Rooney is a club legend. But his output has hit a solid and steep decline. As he is on the wrong side of an age curve which peaked early, its time for him to be phased out of the starting 11, and utilise fully Mkhitaryan’s peak years.
As for Rashford this has already been done to death and if you spend anytime browsing the analytics community twitter you will already know the argument in full. Basically, Rashford has been riding a very hot finishing streak. Raking in a shot conversion of about 50% and poor shot numbers. This is not sustainable. If Rashford is to maintain his NPG numbers, he has to see a large increase in shots per 90. I think some increase is expected however, as we see a move away from Van Gaal’s low-shot system and as Rashford’s ability and movement improves with age. However, I don’t think this will be enough to warrant a position in Mourinho’s line-up this season.
Conclusion
The recruitment of Ibrahimovic and Mkhitaryan could be huge this season, and it indicates to the other clubs that the Red Devils are hungry and they want to win something now. What will probably be the last good season Ibra has and Mkhitaryan is unlikely to be a particularly long term signing there will be an immediate focus on silverware. Although these are exciting players, it does suggest that there is a reluctance to look to the future. This could come back to bite the club in approximately three seasons time.
However Pogba and Bailly, although maybe both have been overpriced slightly, may help to provide stability in the long run.
All in all I think this is a very exciting season at Old Trafford, and provided Mourinho can find his old notes from Madrid, a front 5 of Ibrahimovic, Martial, Memphis, Mkhitaryan and Pogba could provide too much for the competition this season. If I had to guess, I think they will be Manchester City’s closest rival to the Premier League title, but will ultimately miss out. But who knows.
Predicted finish: 2nd
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