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The_Donald

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created by [deleted]CSS by Phinaeusa community for
top 200 commentsshow all 201
[–]justcause2016 224 points225 points226 points  (16 children)
they show reuters poll has a bias of 10% no surprise there
[–]shitpostsonthetoilet 59 points60 points61 points  (11 children)
How do they determine the bias exactly? I want to believe this exists but I can't find their methods to judge for myself.
[–]Thisisaterriblename 101 points102 points103 points  (7 children)
It's on their site under the "methodology" section.
From what I read they use the actual voter data gained from previous elections provided by the secretary of state or election commission offices in each state. Armed with this data they are able to determine how oversampled or undersampled other polls are. Then they adjust the percentages from the other polls by doing a crosstab comparison.
Check out their previous Obama/McCain, Obama/Romney poll adjustments. You can see that they aren't just sliding the numbers up for Trump. They appear to be using a data driven poll adjustment.
[–]s0cketNC 24 points25 points26 points  (6 children)
Wow... Nate Silver needs to take some notes from people who actually know what the fuck they're doing.
[–]ChestBras 13 points14 points15 points  (1 child)
Why? It's not the same job. These guy use data to report information. The news makes up stories to get views...
[–]Und3adBoss24 5 points6 points7 points  (0 children)
Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight aren't exactly 'news' though. They've just gotten a little too eager to join the claim-making horse race.
[–]Need_vagina_pix_naoNC 3 points4 points5 points  (1 child)
Nate Silver couldn't find his own ass with six hands and two mirrors.
[–]M3nt0RNJ 5 points6 points7 points  (0 children)
He's devalued silver. It's now worth about the same as plywood.
[–]PumpTrump -2 points-1 points0 points  (0 children)
Nate silver doesn't want to die from sudden loss of life. increases crooked Hillary win to 113%
[–]sunwukong155PA -3 points-2 points-1 points  (0 children)
Uhh who exactly is Nate Silver?
[–]DasigesiWEW 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
Reuters always way over sample Dems and under sample Independents
[–]InFrn0TX 5 points6 points7 points  (1 child)
I don't mind a bit of complacency from their camp.
[–]toseawaybinghamtonNY 7 points8 points9 points  (0 children)
The problem is with the undecided and people tend to go with the person wining thinking they are naturally a better choice.
[–]Enzo-UnversedWA 2 points3 points4 points  (0 children)
Reuters legit worse than CNN.
[–]PC_FunpoliceUSA 143 points144 points145 points  (25 children)
I feel this needs to be seen more.
[–]HawkeyeFan321 86 points87 points88 points  (6 children)
This needs a sticky. Centipedes need to see some uplifting unbiased polls
[–]Da_UniqueUser[S] 45 points46 points47 points  (3 children)
MODS STICKY
[–]chrismolaARMY 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
Sticky for the rest of the week.
[–]TheManFromOregonOR 5 points6 points7 points  (0 children)
It needs to be on the sidebar and updated daily.
[–]TestyMicrowave 2 points3 points4 points  (0 children)
“
Centipedes need to see some uplifting unbiased polls
[–]Lift4biff 14 points15 points16 points  (6 children)
They don't care the greater reddit people they'll buy false consensus because they agree with it.
[–]alphadog6969 7 points8 points9 points  (5 children)
Know the irony in it all, reddit skull fucked the algorithm to punish centipedes and ultimately it's keeping a lid on CTR $hills gang raping /r/politics
[–]daysofchristmaspast 0 points1 point2 points  (4 children)
I'm replying to you because this is like the thousandth time I've seen it, but can somebody explain the context for "centipedes?" I haven't been able to find an explanation anywhere
[–]dancingmadkoscheiMD 2 points3 points4 points  (0 children)
Can't Stump the Trump uses Centipede by Knife Party as its soundtrack.
[–]chmatSWE 1 point2 points3 points  (2 children)
It's from the "Can't Stump The Trump" videos iirc. In the intro there's an excerpt from a nature documentary in which a centipede kills a tarantula. There is also a dubstep (???) remix that is popular.
[–]nodivisionhwmMN 0 points1 point2 points  (1 child)
“
dubstep (???)
Oh... I always thought I was listening to an industrial accident...
[–]blindbull 2 points3 points4 points  (0 children)
If it stays at the top of this sub for any length of time, then that'll mean it's been seen by at least 3 million unique visitors.
[–][deleted]  (9 children)
[removed]
    [–]TXMechEngTX 39 points40 points41 points  (10 children)
    They said they go county by county, precinct by precinct gathering voter data.
    Do counties and precincts keep voter data on the general election? I.e. How many of their voters support each candidate? Or is this simply taking each R vote for Trump and D vote for Hillary?
    Edit: later I'll try to see if we can apply this to the electoral college and see how we're doing
    [–]PC_FunpoliceUSA 13 points14 points15 points  (0 children)
    Im assuming they keep the precinct stuff for a while in case of a run off or whatever. Thats why on Election night they always have a counter of X number of precincts reporting.
    [–]americasciceroMAGA 9 points10 points11 points  (2 children)
    I believe state sec of states keep detailed demographics, perhaps by county. You would adjust the demographics of the poll to an individual county as best you can.
    For instance, if a county is 80% fucking white males, 20% cucks, and the polls say 90% of fucking white males support Trump while 10% of cucks do (regardless of the amount of each demographic in the poll), the final tally is:
    Trump: (0.8 x 0.9)+(0.2 x 0.1) = 74% in favor of Trump
    [–]TXMechEngTX 4 points5 points6 points  (1 child)
    That sounds like what I thought. No wonder it was so close in the past elections. I wish they would extrapolate a level further and give electoral college predictions
    [–]americasciceroMAGA 2 points3 points4 points  (0 children)
    Yeah they should do a graphic which shows their county by country prediction and color in the states based on result.
    [–]MO_based_centipedeMO 5 points6 points7 points  (4 children)
    All polls pre-suppose voter demographics. In other words, they say, I think 43% of voters will be D, 35% R. So when they make their calls, they only take data from that same split.
    LongRoom says: wait right there. You used that split in county X where there are 24% D, 65% R. I'll only take your data that fits the correct percentages. They make this adjustment in every state/county/precinct. So some will slide more D, some more R, but it becomes an accurate sampling based on location of the voter.
    My guess is, this makes it less accurate for an individual poll because they'll have to weed out certain votes they choose not to count to make the percentages correct. However, by averaging everyone's polls in the same manner, they greatly increase their sample size and make the final average very accurate.
    [–]LeiloniPA 2 points3 points4 points  (1 child)
    Not quite. Polls will generally list how they come to their results, but for example the LA Times poll says this:
    “
    Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election.
    So their results are a bit outdated because of that - a lot has changed in 4 years. Then you have things like the NBC Poll which weight the information based on a number of demographic data from the Current Population Survey, and not actual current voter data. But that one is also biased because it's only done via people using Survey Monkey which means not only does it exclude a ton of people who don't use that site, but it's also a self selected survey.
    A lot of the polls are flawed basically.
    [–]MO_based_centipedeMO 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
    Well, yes. It's not just what someone thought, but they do have to make a presupposition. It's easier to pull it from data that leans the way you want.
    [–][deleted]  (1 child)
    [removed]
      [–]bwestUSA 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
      In PA you can buy a full voter export from the PA Dept. of State for $20
      [–]MuleJuiceMcQuaid 71 points72 points73 points  (36 children)
      Trump up, but only by +0.9%. There's still a lot of work to be done before November.
      [–]PC_FunpoliceUSA 79 points80 points81 points  (1 child)
      But that .9 +/- .03 sure looks different than down 10%
      [–]HawkeyeFan321 24 points25 points26 points  (0 children)
      Exactly. This is why I'm excited
      [–]HawkeyeFan321 39 points40 points41 points  (29 children)
      Honestly, after this last week of polls I'm fucking ecstatic to see that. My friends texting me about the polls were starting to get me down. It's all about making it to the debates within striking distance
      [–]Physio_ToolGA 41 points42 points43 points  (25 children)
      Wait for the debates. Just wait. It will be tremendous. Hilary will be forced to go off script and she'll turn into a mess.
      [–]HawkeyeFan321 27 points28 points29 points  (17 children)
      I'm concerned about how moderated they will be. The world needs exposure to her criminal activities since the news won't cover them. But I agree, it's gonna be glorious
      [–]rbtkhn 51 points52 points53 points  (10 children)
      There is no moderator in the world who could prevent Trump from imposing his will on the debate.
      [–]MRPguyUSA 9 points10 points11 points  (8 children)
      They will allow her to vet questions beforehand and give her softballs.
      [–]rbtkhn 11 points12 points13 points  (5 children)
      That is what I expect, but Trump could throw his own questions at Hillary and the moderator would not be able to stop him, even if it is against the rules.
      [–]MO_based_centipedeMO 8 points9 points10 points  (4 children)
      She'd hide behind the rules and refuse to answer him.
      [–]rbtkhn 14 points15 points16 points  (3 children)
      Of course, but if Trump asks the right question in the right way, Clinton will be devastated whether she tries to answer or not.
      [–]STUMP_AND_DUMPCOAL 8 points9 points10 points  (0 children)
      "Hillary how is it that you and Bill have amassed a fortune of 200 million dollars through a lifetime of public service?"
      "I refuse to answer"
      Yeah, not a good look.
      [–]stevema1991 5 points6 points7 points  (1 child)
      Best case scenario, she gets a case of the chai tea chills with no reason for it imo
      [–]jwm5514PA 7 points8 points9 points  (1 child)
      It won't matter. All Trump needs to do is shout "Where are the emails?" and he will win the debate. By not having any press conferences and the media not talking about her scandals, she is setting herself for massive BTFOs of epic proportions.
      [–]CalamariRPTX 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
      All her scandals are bottlenecking to the first debate.
      [–]WTCMolybdenum4753COAL 16 points17 points18 points  (0 children)
      Crooked Hildabeast in a boardroom negotiating with Trump and she gets schlonged 10 times out of 10. Take it to the bank.
      [–]NewlyFoundAgainPA 1 point2 points3 points  (5 children)
      I'm not convinced she's physically able to do a debate. Did you see the video of her seizures today?
      [–]redneckwhiteass 1 point2 points3 points  (1 child)
      Huh? Is there a new video that was recorded today?
      [–]CalamariRPTX 2 points3 points4 points  (0 children)
      Not a seizure video but watch the top sticky of Crooked being interrupted by protesters. It's glorious.
      [–]silentbob1138CA 13 points14 points15 points  (2 children)
      At this point, I'm just hoping we get a debate. Hillary could back out claiming she doesn't want to share the stage with a "bigot" like Trump and the media would fall over themselves praising her as a hero for standing up to Trump and denying him a public forum for his "nazi ideals".
      [–][deleted]  (1 child)
      [removed]
        [–]M3nt0RNJ 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
        Low energy. You must increase it.
        [–]PM_ME_YOUR_SENATORSAZ 5 points6 points7 points  (0 children)
        People are worried about trump blowing up, but hill is the one who lost her shit at the Benghazi hearings.
        [–]bowie747AUS 1 point2 points3 points  (1 child)
        As an Australian, I really want to see the debate. I have literally been hanging out for it, and I was going to post here and ask when it is. Instead I thought I'd look it up for myself.

        TFW WHEN I FIND OUT THERE ARE THREE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES!!!

        [–]M3nt0RNJ 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
        Two are tied to primetime slots where America will be watching the most watched sport, American football. The media will run with crooked sound bites.
        Yet I think trump will rip her so hard, there will be no way to cover it up. Bernie was a chihuahua. A little bitch. That's what pushed me over to this side. HE felt like hebwas planted by the dems to bring young voters in, then he endorsed her and left the party.
        Sources say he went home to go to bed.
        [–]JohnVirchow 4 points5 points6 points  (0 children)
        Hillary Clinton is going to start having a seizure and arf like a dog.
        [–]JohnVirchow 11 points12 points13 points  (0 children)
        The polls are bullshit. Reuters was caught fudging their numbers to make Clinton look like she is ahead after they "accidentally" showed Trump leading. Polling Pioneer Pat Caddell said that he never saw a news organization do something so dishonest. Even CNN was caught rigging their polls too. Around that time of rigging, polls all over the place are reporting that Clinton is making a comeback after a post-convention dip, undoubtedly due to what a shitshow the DNC was. Bullshit. These polls are all full of shit.
        EDIT: August 4th, 2016 - McClatchy-Marist, the #1 rated poll featured on Bloomberg for being the most accurate poll in the nation, just linked me to an article that interviews a bunch of people calling Trump a racist and crazy. What the fuck. This is supposed to be a respected poll cited around the world.
        [–]Und3adBoss24 0 points1 point2 points  (1 child)
        Make Iowa red, HawkeyeFan.
        [–]HawkeyeFan321 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
        I'm in Ohio! Gonna make Cincinnati red!
        [–]JohnVirchow 6 points7 points8 points  (0 children)
        Don't forget about the Shy Trump Effect in this politically correct, violent, and toxic climate.
        [–]ThugLifeNewShitUSA 6 points7 points8 points  (0 children)
        HRC needs to be BTFO in a landslide so we never have to hear from the Clinton Crime Family again (except for criminal prosecution)
        [–]Ace4929PA 2 points3 points4 points  (0 children)
        If we can still be in the positives after the most brutal week in the history of the campaign then Id say we're on the right track
        [–]ibrajy_bldzhadRUS 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
        You see how hillary jumped up just before that? Well, you will se the correction in couple of days. Maybe she won't fall that low again, but the gap will be wider. Does not mean that centipedes must not do their nimble work as hard as ever.
        [–]MuricaLiteUSA 19 points20 points21 points  (3 children)
        This seems more correct to me.
        I am not surprised Tump's post convention bump faded, but the insanity of the polls after the DNC seems completely out of left field.
        The Khan thing hasn't been great, but there is no way on earth it causes the sorts of swings the polls might indicate.
        [–]lordofzequewestiaRI 8 points9 points10 points  (1 child)
        I don't know man, the media told me he insulted a Muslim gold star family. This is a compelling argument for having an open border
        [–]MuricaLiteUSA 3 points4 points5 points  (0 children)
        I get it. I heard he made a joke about John McCain.
        Better ship all of our intellectual property over to China to be safe.
        [–]kickulus 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
        The debate friend
        [–]Brenshaw02 16 points17 points18 points  (5 children)
        I would caution against putting too much stock in such an obscure site. There was a guy four years ago who claimed to be unbiasing polls and when election night hit he was extraordinarily wrong leaving all those who believed in him stunned.
        So just, careful.
        [–]Ferox745TX 7 points8 points9 points  (0 children)
        Thanks for spoiling the series finale of 538.
        [–]potluckpoliticoGA 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
        Do you mean Dick Morris? His argument was compelling. He kept saying the likely voter models were way off. Of course, they weren't. It would be easy to believe that this time too, i.e. not as many folks turning out for Hillary as they did for Obama.
        Essentially, solely using polls to predict the future is never a good thing to do.
        [–]libertyprime48 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
        Based on their results for the past three elections, they appear to know what they're doing. One thing is certain: by excluding certain demographics, changing questions, and adding many more dems, the polls are being intentionally skewed for Hillary. Perhaps they want to show a big Hillary lead so when there's election fraud it doesn't raise any red flags.
        [–]Dash-o-SaltWA 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
        Yeah, I got too taken in four years ago now to pay much attention now. I'm just going to ignore the polls entirely.
        It's getting increasingly frustrating to be surrounded by the media and facebook 'friends' who keep repeating the same nonsense regurgitated by enemies of Trump. I think I might back away for awhile so that I can avoid being inundated with politics.
        [–]10gauge 25 points26 points27 points  (2 children)
        This should be the only poll used, until the dems buy them off and manipulate their results as well.
        [–]koolmagicguy 7 points8 points9 points  (0 children)
        $400 million airdrop sound about right?
        [–]not_governor_of_ohioUSA 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
        I'm here with the Pancake City Gazette poll, showing that Trump leads by 80 points. Please buy me out for lots of money now.
        [–]canaryCukDEU 33 points34 points35 points  (0 children)
        I think we are not fully through all the current pro clinton polls?
        [–]wasdie639WI 22 points23 points24 points  (13 children)
        What's the evidence that they were right in the past 3 elections with that low of a margin of error?
        A quick look at their polls and it just shows good news for Trump. I'm skeptical because it's a bit "too good to be true".
        [–]americasciceroMAGA 14 points15 points16 points  (1 child)
        They have a page under 'methodology' which shows their results for the past three elections. My guess is that to develop their method, they backtested against previous years (since the polling data is out there and public) and used that to build the model.
        [–]ThudnerChunky 11 points12 points13 points  (0 children)
        None.. They didn't even exist during those prior elections.
        [–]totallynotathrowawaa 4 points5 points6 points  (1 child)
        Is there evidence that this website even existed 4 years ago?
        [–]f89fj238 0 points1 point2 points  (1 child)
        >They're trustworthy
        >[PROOF]
        wew
        [–]not_governor_of_ohioUSA -3 points-2 points-1 points  (0 children)
        Trust me, there's no problem.
        [–]TXMechEngTX 1 point2 points3 points  (3 children)
        I think on another section of the site it has the Bush/Kerry, McCain/Obama, and Romney/Obama results w/ their prediction percentages. I would double check but I'm guessing the 0.03% margin of error means that the results they predicted match completely except for by .1% in one of the elections
        [–]wasdie639WI 11 points12 points13 points  (2 children)
        Seems I found it. Basically they adjust each poll based on actual voting demographics for each state. Seems that every single poll right now has a decent sized liberal bias if this is correct.
        [–]aDAMNPATRIOTUSMC 8 points9 points10 points  (1 child)
        Oh I'm soooooooooooooo surprised
        [–]JohnVirchow 4 points5 points6 points  (0 children)
        "It is a well-known fact that reality has a liberal bias." - Stephen Colbert.
        No Stephen, it's called rigging the election.
        [–]CSMastermind 8 points9 points10 points  (0 children)
        I'm pretty skeptical. Getting three elections correct with that margin of error is a near impossibility unless you're fudging the numbers.
        The domain itself was only registered in 2008.
        This is what the site looked like in 2010:
        I also can't find any reference to them before this year.
        [–]phxdudeAZ 7 points8 points9 points  (3 children)
        "Because the LongRoom Polling Analysis is exclusively data based, it makes it possible to demonstrate from the crosstabs of an individual poll whether that poll is either left or right leaning." .
        .
        Anyone able to put that in english?
        [–]TXMechEngTX 7 points8 points9 points  (2 children)
        Crosstabs = crosstabulations
        Basically when they put their prediction and the poll results on the same graph you can easily see how the poll is biased
        [–]phxdudeAZ 4 points5 points6 points  (1 child)
        So, they have a historically proven formula that came out to .3% of the actual results. They apply this formula to current data to come up with the unbiased number. Then they subtract the MSM polls from the unbiased number to determine how crooked the MSM polls are. Correct?
        [–]TXMechEngTX 4 points5 points6 points  (0 children)
        Predictions have been within a margin of error of 0.03%. And yes, that's all correct.
        [–]Impuredeath 5 points6 points7 points  (0 children)
        Wait, I have been doing this by hand for a while now. There is a site that does it for me?
        [–]WTCMolybdenum4753COAL 5 points6 points7 points  (0 children)

        We love our unbiased polling don't we folks?!!!

        Woot!
        [–]Grip_Mod_Parts 6 points7 points8 points  (4 children)
        I can't find it right now but there is some political science professor in the US who made an algorithm based on all major candidates in history. He applied the algorithm to previous elections and it was wrong once and it has been correct every time since he unveiled said algorithm.
        It's predicted Trump from the beginning.
        [–]Ismaeal1 2 points3 points4 points  (3 children)
        Primary model-Helmut Norputh. His reasoning and record is actually pretty flawless
        [–]Grip_Mod_Parts 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
        Yep. Thanks for finding it!
        [–]KingR10USA 0 points1 point2 points  (1 child)
        His model has been wrong ONCE since 1912 (some retroactively, some in real time), which is extremely impressive.
        [–]Ismaeal1 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
        Yep. Even then, it was extremely close (like .2% off, about 200k). It was Nixon vs JFK. It was also the year when TV debates happened. Once people saw how much of a goul Nixon was (similar to our own Cruz) it swung the other way, though every so slightly. And even the polls throughout that year were always close.
        [–]Mission_Impawzible 9 points10 points11 points  (4 children)
        Can't wait for the next wiki drop!! Watch Killary's numbers drop even further after that. Hate that vile, evil skank.
        [–]nyelianCA 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
        Totally not it.
        [–]daysofchristmaspast 0 points1 point2 points  (1 child)
        Damn, that is not the leak I was hoping for. It was supposed to be the big nail in the coffin. This is pretty easy to spin
        [–]nunsinnikes 3 points4 points5 points  (0 children)
        leaks on the Clinton Foundation are incoming, and apparently that's where the majority of her offenses lie.
        [–]zossarwrUSA 8 points9 points10 points  (0 children)
        The media is so blatantly biased its scary. I don't believe half of what I read.
        But, I see that for 15 months in a row, the FBI is reporting staggering increases in gun sales. Making gun control advocates, which Clinton is, of course, look quite unpopular in real terms.
        I see that actual real people on site at rallies for Trump and for Hilarity take pictures of the crowds and the difference is stark. Trump is out-pacing her and by the looks of things, by quite a margin.
        My own eyes aren't lying like the leftist media does.
        [–]bellvedere87NY 4 points5 points6 points  (0 children)
        Thanks! This is an encouraging poll and I like how it points out the liberal media bias.
        [–]whousedallthenamesUSA 8 points9 points10 points  (0 children)

        TO THE TOP, CENTIPEDES!!!

        [–]blindbull 2 points3 points4 points  (0 children)
        Those are pretty good results. Maybe they're so accurate because they don't over sample their polls by twenty percent with a specific political party.
        [–]ajbeniusPA 2 points3 points4 points  (3 children)
        Let's not get into picking over poll methodology. Remember the "unskewed polls" thing in the 2012 election?
        [–]libertyprime48 0 points1 point2 points  (2 children)
        This website predicted the 2012 election result correctly.
        [–][deleted]  (1 child)
        [removed]
          [–]HungJury01 1 point2 points3 points  (3 children)
          How do they factor in bias?
          [–]MuleJuiceMcQuaid 2 points3 points4 points  (2 children)
          They didn't explain it very well, but because they claim it's 100% data driven then they must go by how many respondents from each political party were polled.
          So a +10 bias means they sampled 10% more Dems than Republicans.
          [–]wasdie639WI 4 points5 points6 points  (0 children)
          It seems that they get their demographics from each state, create some sort of an average for the nation, and apply that against the poll's demographics.
          So it's not necessarily 10% more Dems than Republicans, it's 10% more Dems than there actually are. I'm sure both sides are factored. So if they over polled Republicans and Democrats, they would factor both of those in. For example if they overpolled Democrats by 6 and Republicans by 3, that would be a +3 Dem bias.
          [–]HungJury01 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          Are we able to access that data with polls?
          [–]TruthSeekar 1 point2 points3 points  (2 children)
          This needs more attention, however I can't find their reasoning for determining bias.
          Can you explain? I want to believe it, but i need hardcore evidence to do so.
          [–]TXMechEngTX 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
          Bias = |(media poll result) - (their prediction)|
          Instead of sampling a population of about ~2000 phone calls for the results they use voter data taken from precincts/counties as the precincts/counties update them.
          [–]kolarov133 1 point2 points3 points  (1 child)
          Is RCP still a good source for polls anyway?
          [–]libertyprime48 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
          Not with polls that oversample dems 10-15% constantly being used there. I'm done using RCP as a source.
          [–]IndianaHoosierFanIN 1 point2 points3 points  (7 children)
          Why do they have Fox skewed to the left?
          [–]MRPguyUSA 3 points4 points5 points  (6 children)
          Latest poll, they sampled 44% Dems, 35% Repubs, and 21% Independents.
          [–]D_J_TUSA 1 point2 points3 points  (5 children)
          Wtf the republicans have had a higher primary turn out than democrats, and there are more independents than democrats or repubs...
          [–]GhostphaezCA 1 point2 points3 points  (3 children)
          Higher turnout due to Independents.
          This is Gallup's current breakdown of party affiliation according to polls:
          28% R, 42% I, 28% D.
          43% lean R, 43% lean D.
          [–]libertyprime48 0 points1 point2 points  (2 children)
          So the only explanation for why dems are being massively, ridiculously oversampled while independents are even more undersampled is to create the illusion that Clinton is winning.
          [–]GhostphaezCA 1 point2 points3 points  (1 child)
          Well, look at the latest Marist/McClatchy poll, which has Clinton +15 (!!) and used the following sampling:
          27% R, 37% I, 36% D (oversampled Dems by 8% and undersampled Inds by 5% and Reps by 1%)
          Men: 48%, Women: 52% (actual ratio in population is 49% M : 51% F; women lean more towards Hillary)
          Why would they use such odd sampling?
          [–]libertyprime48 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
          The polling for this election is quite honestly an outrage. The media is essentially part of the Clinton campaign at this point.
          [–]antho_2000NY 1 point2 points3 points  (2 children)
          TIL CNN has the biggest bias
          [–]ronbag 0 points1 point2 points  (1 child)
          Just today?
          [–]antho_2000NY 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          well i could not quantify it and maybe MSNBC can be more biased... but now it's plain and clear.
          [–]Derplordsnuffy 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
          Except it isn't an accurate poll if it does not include the other two candidates. Just saying.
          [–]salmonrollNJ 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
          We need to know what the defiencies of this poll are. I want to believe
          [–]pixullTX 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
          Can someone ELI5?
          [–]Enzo-UnversedWA 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
          LMFAO at Reuters bias level.
          [–]pastrie300TX 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
          Bookmarked. Can't trust the corrupt media anymore.
          [–]f89fj238 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
          Has longroom even been around for 3 presidencies? It hasn't. It was created in 2008...
          [–]francisco_DANKonia 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
          Good Lord, Quinnipiac is the only right leaning poll?
          [–]rob_p954 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
          We're fight for our country and I hope this poll is right. I just looked over at the political sub, and everything thing on there about trump was negative. I mean everything, almost like crooked Hillary bought it. We have to keep posting facts about trump and keep pushing forward.
          [–]DontDoxxonMeUSA 1 point2 points3 points  (0 children)
          Remember that mathematician whose algorithm successfully predicted every election but 1960? His algorithm gave Trump a 97% chance of winning against Hillary. Not to mention alot of these polls go off the 2012 turnout, as if this year the turnout would even resemble that.
          [–]NoBrakesBitchesUSA 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          Thanks, Fam, that's a great site.
          [–]horace999USA 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          I'm so shocked! Every poll is biased multiple percentage points in the same direction [crooked hillary], except quinnipiac with less than half a percentage point in the other direction.
          [–]GerglieID 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          TACTICAL NUKE INCOMING
          Morale boost to the top!
          [–]jnhermCA 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          This is great! Was hoping to find something out there like this.
          [–]mbeezierUSAF 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          As much as this is good news, 2 out of 3 were re-elections.
          Still go and not for Trump!
          [–]BossJ00 0 points1 point2 points  (2 children)
          Here's my question. Why have a poll if it is biased? Isn't that counter productive? I mean unless you just want to lie and deceive - which is what most of our Gov't Media does.
          [–]RedditJusticeWarriorNY 2 points3 points4 points  (1 child)
          “
          Here's my question. Why have a poll if it is biased? Isn't that counter productive? I mean unless you just want to lie and deceive - which is what most of our Gov't Media does.
          1) Playing to their audience.
          2) I think a lot of journalists don't see themselves as bias. I think they sincerely think they're "controling" for the right factors. In the same way, you'll see CNN superstars on twitter defending themselves for sheltering Clinton. Cuomo outright defends saying Hillary did nothing wrong w/ her emails. He honestly believes it.
          That's what we're fighting against. People who are so fucking gone that they cannot even consider viewpoints other than their own.
          So there you go, you get bias polls because they don't see it that way.
          They won't learn their lesson if Trump wins. They'll just dismiss it as poor turnout of "the right people".
          [–]BossJ00 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          Just pathetic, but you're absolutely right on.
          [–]StopPleaseNoNZL 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          Lolll every other poll has Trump below the unbiased, Hillary above fml
          [–]SirSirobPA 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)

          UNSTUMPABLE

          [–]Tac_ResoWI 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          the bias column though.... and yet trump still has those stats
          [–]MrMAGAMANUSA 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          I kinda want the election to have a Brexit effect. The polls we 90% stay.
          [–]Neglectful_Stranger 0 points1 point2 points  (1 child)
          They have Rasmussen as Left-leaning. Not sure about them.
          [–]GhostphaezCA 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          Yeah, that's crazy.
          [–]InsaneEnergy4AUS 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          Oh look, Remain is up by +9! Clearly Brexit will never win. /s
          [–]BrianLeFevreIAmGodNY 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          Based Quinnipiac!!
          [–][deleted] 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          I always knew the media was in the tank for Democrats, but I had no idea it was as bad as it is. This election cycle has really served to rip the mask off the MSM, and has shown them to be as corrupt as the woman they're behind.
          [–]CometCentipedeMAGA 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          EXTEND THE LEAD!
          God Emperor Trump needs to be office!
          [–]VincentpersichettiTX 0 points1 point2 points  (2 children)
          Legit question, why does Fox News show a 10 point lead Clinton over Trump?
          [–]Da_UniqueUser[S] 0 points1 point2 points  (1 child)
          Convention bump (happens every election cycle. When Trump was winning in the polls after his convention nobody said it was over for Hillary because it was right after RNC; conveniently everybody in the media has forgotten about the "Convention bump"), margin of error, screwed-up statistics, etc. People don't realize how many things can factor into a crooked poll.
          [–]VincentpersichettiTX 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          See? This is evidence. Not some bullshit "you're a bigot and that's why hillary is ahead..." I'm sick of seeing feelings and moral theory as an argument...ESPECIALLY on r/politics. They can't honestly answer any question without an insult--which is obviously a great argument enhancement tool
          [–]Genseerian 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          My husband called me from work to tell me that he heard a CBS report on the radio that Trump's campaign is in a shambles and that he's losing to Hillary by 14 points. I was telling him that more and more polls are being proven to be purposely skewed in her favor. Then Herman Cain says on Greta's show that there are two elections going on - the one in the MSM which has absolutely nothing to do with the one on the ground. I just hope people will wake up to the psyops that are going on and get a grip on reality.
          [–]delegateswrangler 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          The .03% claim would be a lot more impressive if they were based on polling during those elections. As far as I can tell, all of this was done after the fact. It's not hard to look like you called it when you already know the outcome and control how the data is weighed.
          [–]illicitandcomlicitME -1 points0 points1 point  (2 children)
          All but one poll has bias towards Hillary, if I'm understanding this correctly. MSM is biased my ass
          [–]pastrie300TX 0 points1 point2 points  (1 child)
          You aren't understanding this correctly
          [–]illicitandcomlicitME 0 points1 point2 points  (0 children)
          My bad. I figured the blue arrow coincided with a bias for hillary and the red one for trump.
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