Polling average missed the final outcome by ~4%. Given the (not-very-good) track record of UK polls about what you'd have a right to expect.
Repeating myself, but the Brexit polls weren't bad. Showed a toss-up. Question is why so few people believed them.http://huff.to/1TVMryA
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But despite polls showing the race roughly even & dodgy history of UK polls, betting markets had leave as a 4:1 underdog as of 24 hours ago.
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p.s. Please be aware of my hindsight bias here. We didn't issue a UK referendum forecast and it's really easy to sound smart after the fact.
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@natesilver538 I think the late movement towards remain only heightened it. It was always close though. - その他の返信を表示
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@NateSilver538 What about exit polling? Right after polls closed, there were stories about exit polls showing that Brexit would lose, yes? -
@NateSilver538 When a friend says that they are going to kill themselves, our bias tells us that they would never actually do it. -
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@NateSilver538 Probably because no one expected a country to shoot its economy in the face. -
@NateSilver538 Kinda like how none of us believed the pre-primary polls showing Trump ahead cuz we didn't think GOP voters were irrational. - さらに表示
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@NateSilver538@pollster The polls in the last 24 hours predicted Remain ....some by as much as 8%. -
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@NateSilver538@pollster B/c the betting markets said#Remain would prevail#Brexit -
@NateSilver538@pollster - because ultimately you could never quite believe we'd do something so shatteringly stupid to ourselves. -
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@NateSilver538 Polls were all within MoE - さらに表示
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読み込みに時間がかかっているようです。
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