This post has been updated with comment from Fox News.
What is Donald Trump's end game? When he complains about the general election debate schedule, is he laying a foundation of excuses for his eventual withdrawal from the events — he boycotted one debate during the Republican primaries and effectively forced the cancellation of another — or is he angling for new dates?
Megyn Kelly is convinced it's the latter. Two of the three presidential debates conflict with prime-time NFL games, and Kelly believes the Republican nominee wants to move them to other nights when bigger audiences might tune in.
[Do NFL games really take eyeballs off presidential debates?]
"I feel that I have inside information on this, which will come as a surprise to some folks," the Fox News host told viewers Monday night. "I think it is about the ratings. ... To me, there's no doubt about it, because when Trump and I did our interview in May and I asked him to sit down with me for my Fox broadcast special, the No. 1 thing he wanted to know was what we were up against. And there was a very competitive show that got 17 million viewers that night or something. It was the season finale of something, and a main character was being killed off. And he's smart; he knows about ratings, and he says, 'They call me the ratings machine.' He likes big ratings."
The "very competitive show" to which Kelly referred was the season finale of CBS's "NCIS," the final episode for agent Anthony DiNozzo, played by Michael Weatherly. (For the record, DiNozzo didn't die; he just left the agency.) Anyway, "NCIS" did get 17.6 million viewers that night, dominating the 8 p.m. hour. "Megyn Kelly Presents," featuring the Trump interview, was the third-most-watched program in that hour, with 4.7 million viewers.
If Trump is such a ratings-obsessed master negotiator, why would he agree to go up against such a juggernaut?
Don't forget that before Trump agreed to be interviewed, "Megyn Kelly Presents" was originally scheduled for May 23 — a loaded night on the major networks that included final performances on ABC's "Dancing with the Stars" and NBC's "The Voice," plus a special, prime-time episode of the "Price is Right" on CBS. None of those three attracted as many viewers as the finale of "NCIS," but all three easily beat the number put up by Trump and Kelly the following week.
It's impossible to know for sure what the viewership totals would have been if the date for "Megyn Kelly Presents" had remained unchanged, but there is a good chance that it would have rated last at 8 p.m. among the four major networks. Sad! By comparison, May 17 looked like a better date.
Kelly did not say on the air that Trump pushed for the date change. A Fox News spokeswoman said the decision to reschedule was made by the Fox broadcasting network, independent of Trump.
Whether Trump influenced the move or not, things worked out in his favor. The question is whether he can achieve a similar result now by pressuring the Commission on Presidential Debates, which says it won't budge.