Who will win the presidency?
Hillary Clinton
66.0%
Donald Trump
34.0%
Electoral votes
Electoral votes
Hillary Clinton
Clinton
306.2
Donald Trump
Trump
231.4
Gary Johnson
Johnson
0.4
Popular vote
Hillary Clinton
Clinton
47.6%
Donald Trump
Trump
44.1%
Gary Johnson
Johnson
6.9%
# How the odds have changed
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.
# Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
Key
Average
80% chance outcome falls in this range
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# It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes
Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it.
Key
50%
60
70
80
90
Clinton's chances
Trump's chances
One electoral vote
# How much each state matters
Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner.
Tipping-point chance
Florida | 16.3% |
Ohio | 10.5% |
Pennsylvania | 10.0% |
North Carolina | 7.3% |
Virginia | 6.4% |
Michigan | 6.1% |
Minnesota | 4.5% |
Wisconsin | 4.3% |
Colorado | 4.3% |
Iowa | 3.2% |
New Jersey | 3.1% |
Georgia | 3.0% |
Arizona | 2.3% |
Nevada | 2.1% |
Connecticut | 2.0% |
Washington | 1.9% |
New Hampshire | 1.8% |
Oregon | 1.4% |
New Mexico | 1.2% |
South Carolina | 1.0% |
Texas | 0.9% |
Maine - statewide | 0.7% |
Illinois | 0.7% |
Delaware | 0.6% |
Missouri | 0.5% |
Mississippi | 0.4% |
Montana | 0.3% |
California | 0.3% |
Kentucky | 0.3% |
South Dakota | 0.3% |
Utah | 0.3% |
Alaska | 0.2% |
Rhode Island | 0.2% |
Maine 2nd District | 0.2% |
New York | 0.2% |
Nebraska 1st District | 0.2% |
Maine 1st District | 0.2% |
Indiana | 0.2% |
Vermont | 0.2% |
North Dakota | 0.1% |
Nebraska 2nd District | <0.1% |
Tennessee | <0.1% |
Kansas | <0.1% |
Arkansas | <0.1% |
Louisiana | <0.1% |
Nebraska - statewide | <0.1% |
Alabama | <0.1% |
Massachusetts | <0.1% |
Idaho | <0.1% |
West Virginia | <0.1% |
Oklahoma | <0.1% |
Wyoming | <0.1% |
Maryland | <0.1% |
Nebraska 3rd District | <0.1% |
Hawaii | <0.1% |
District of Columbia | <0.1% |
Voter power index
New Hampshire | 3.2 |
Iowa | 2.7 |
Nevada | 2.5 |
Ohio | 2.5 |
Florida | 2.4 |
Pennsylvania | 2.3 |
Virginia | 2.2 |
North Carolina | 2.1 |
New Mexico | 2.1 |
Colorado | 2.1 |
Minnesota | 2.0 |
Delaware | 2.0 |
Wisconsin | 1.9 |
Michigan | 1.7 |
Connecticut | 1.7 |
Maine - statewide | 1.3 |
Arizona | 1.2 |
New Jersey | 1.1 |
Oregon | 1.0 |
Alaska | 1.0 |
Georgia | 1.0 |
Nebraska 1st District | 0.9 |
South Dakota | 0.9 |
Montana | 0.9 |
Maine 2nd District | 0.8 |
Washington | 0.8 |
Vermont | 0.7 |
South Carolina | 0.7 |
Rhode Island | 0.6 |
Maine 1st District | 0.6 |
North Dakota | 0.5 |
Mississippi | 0.4 |
Wyoming | 0.4 |
Utah | 0.3 |
Nebraska 2nd District | 0.3 |
Missouri | 0.2 |
Kentucky | 0.2 |
Illinois | 0.2 |
Texas | 0.1 |
Indiana | <0.1 |
Kansas | <0.1 |
Arkansas | <0.1 |
Tennessee | <0.1 |
New York | <0.1 |
California | <0.1 |
Alabama | <0.1 |
Nebraska - statewide | <0.1 |
Massachusetts | <0.1 |
Louisiana | <0.1 |
Idaho | <0.1 |
West Virginia | <0.1 |
Oklahoma | <0.1 |
Maryland | <0.1 |
Nebraska 3rd District | <0.1 |
Hawaii | <0.1 |
District of Columbia | <0.1 |
# What to expect from the Electoral College
A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.
Swipe for state forecasts →
# Who’s winning the popular vote
Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.
Key
Average
80% chance outcome falls in this range
# Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios
Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.
| Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes | 0.4% |
| Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt | 5.9% |
| Clinton wins popular vote | 71.1% |
| Trump wins popular vote | 28.9% |
| Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College | 6.2% |
| Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College | 1.1% |
| Johnson wins at least one electoral vote | 3.0% |
| Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote | 27.5% |
| Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote | 6.4% |
| Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin | 15.7% |
| Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin | 2.7% |
| Map exactly the same as in 2012 | 0.3% |
| Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 | 79.2% |
| Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 | 80.9% |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports.
Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. Candidate portraits by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Florida?
Hillary Clinton
56.5%
Donald Trump
43.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Ohio?
Hillary Clinton
54.9%
Donald Trump
45.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Pennsylvania?
Hillary Clinton
67.2%
Donald Trump
32.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win North Carolina?
Hillary Clinton
49.6%
Donald Trump
50.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Virginia?
Hillary Clinton
67.8%
Donald Trump
32.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Michigan?
Hillary Clinton
79.5%
Donald Trump
20.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Minnesota?
Hillary Clinton
70.9%
Donald Trump
29.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Wisconsin?
Hillary Clinton
78.2%
Donald Trump
21.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Colorado?
Hillary Clinton
71.3%
Donald Trump
28.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Iowa?
Hillary Clinton
55.7%
Donald Trump
44.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win New Jersey?
Hillary Clinton
86.6%
Donald Trump
13.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Georgia?
Hillary Clinton
30.7%
Donald Trump
69.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Arizona?
Hillary Clinton
35.0%
Donald Trump
65.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Nevada?
Hillary Clinton
59.6%
Donald Trump
40.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Connecticut?
Hillary Clinton
81.9%
Donald Trump
18.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
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Who will win Washington?
Hillary Clinton
89.0%
Donald Trump
10.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win New Hampshire?
Hillary Clinton
53.6%
Donald Trump
46.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Oregon?
Hillary Clinton
83.9%
Donald Trump
16.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win New Mexico?
Hillary Clinton
81.1%
Donald Trump
18.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win South Carolina?
Hillary Clinton
22.3%
Donald Trump
77.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Texas?
Hillary Clinton
14.7%
Donald Trump
85.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
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Who will win Maine?
Hillary Clinton
73.6%
Donald Trump
26.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
*Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2
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How this forecast works
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Who will win Illinois?
Hillary Clinton
95.2%
Donald Trump
4.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
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Who will win Delaware?
Hillary Clinton
84.6%
Donald Trump
15.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
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Who will win Missouri?
Hillary Clinton
20.6%
Donald Trump
79.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
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Who will win Mississippi?
Hillary Clinton
15.6%
Donald Trump
84.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Montana?
Hillary Clinton
15.3%
Donald Trump
84.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
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Who will win California?
Hillary Clinton
98.3%
Donald Trump
1.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Kentucky?
Hillary Clinton
12.3%
Donald Trump
87.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
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Who will win South Dakota?
Hillary Clinton
17.7%
Donald Trump
82.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Utah?
Hillary Clinton
11.6%
Donald Trump
88.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Alaska?
Hillary Clinton
17.6%
Donald Trump
81.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Rhode Island?
Hillary Clinton
92.0%
Donald Trump
7.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
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Who will win New York?
Hillary Clinton
97.8%
Donald Trump
2.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Indiana?
Hillary Clinton
10.8%
Donald Trump
89.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Vermont?
Hillary Clinton
93.4%
Donald Trump
6.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win North Dakota?
Hillary Clinton
17.1%
Donald Trump
82.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Tennessee?
Hillary Clinton
7.7%
Donald Trump
92.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Wyoming?
Hillary Clinton
3.6%
Donald Trump
96.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Kansas?
Hillary Clinton
8.2%
Donald Trump
91.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Arkansas?
Hillary Clinton
5.8%
Donald Trump
94.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Massachusetts?
Hillary Clinton
97.5%
Donald Trump
2.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Alabama?
Hillary Clinton
4.1%
Donald Trump
95.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Nebraska?
Hillary Clinton
6.2%
Donald Trump
93.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
*Nebraska awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2District 3
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Louisiana?
Hillary Clinton
4.6%
Donald Trump
95.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Idaho?
Hillary Clinton
1.5%
Donald Trump
98.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Hawaii?
Hillary Clinton
99.5%
Donald Trump
0.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win D.C.?
Hillary Clinton
>99.9%
Donald Trump
<0.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Maryland?
Hillary Clinton
99.8%
Donald Trump
0.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win Oklahoma?
Hillary Clinton
0.6%
Donald Trump
99.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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Who will win West Virginia?
Hillary Clinton
1.0%
Donald Trump
98.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
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How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
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National polls
Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.
From polls to an adjusted average
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.