Who will win the presidency?
Hillary Clinton
72.6%
Donald Trump
27.4%
50%
90
Clinton
Trump
Closest races
Electoral votes
Electoral votes
Hillary Clinton
Clinton
328.5
Donald Trump
Trump
208.8
Gary Johnson
Johnson
0.7
Popular vote
Hillary Clinton
Clinton
48.0%
Donald Trump
Trump
42.7%
Gary Johnson
Johnson
7.9%
How the odds have changed
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.
Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
Key
Average
80% chance outcome falls in this range
It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes
Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it.
Key
50%
60
70
80
90
Clinton's chances
Trump's chances
One electoral vote
Our latest coverage
What to expect from the Electoral College
A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.
Swipe for state forecasts →
Who’s winning the popular vote
Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.
Key
Average
80% chance outcome falls in this range
Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios
Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.
| Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes | 0.4% |
| Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt | 4.5% |
| Clinton wins popular vote | 77.5% |
| Trump wins popular vote | 22.5% |
| Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College | 5.6% |
| Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College | 0.7% |
| Johnson wins at least one electoral vote | 4.9% |
| Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote | 32.8% |
| Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote | 4.5% |
| Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin | 25.4% |
| Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin | 2.4% |
| Map exactly the same as in 2012 | 0.1% |
| Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 | 83.0% |
| Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 | 72.1% |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports.
Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. Candidate portraits by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win North Carolina?
Hillary Clinton
53.2%
Donald Trump
46.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Arizona?
Hillary Clinton
44.3%
Donald Trump
55.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Ohio?
Hillary Clinton
61.3%
Donald Trump
38.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Florida?
Hillary Clinton
62.0%
Donald Trump
37.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Missouri?
Hillary Clinton
37.5%
Donald Trump
62.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Georgia?
Hillary Clinton
33.3%
Donald Trump
66.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Iowa?
Hillary Clinton
67.1%
Donald Trump
32.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Colorado?
Hillary Clinton
67.0%
Donald Trump
32.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win South Carolina?
Hillary Clinton
30.2%
Donald Trump
69.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Pennsylvania?
Hillary Clinton
71.5%
Donald Trump
28.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win New Hampshire?
Hillary Clinton
67.3%
Donald Trump
32.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Nevada?
Hillary Clinton
69.4%
Donald Trump
30.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Virginia?
Hillary Clinton
73.6%
Donald Trump
26.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Mississippi?
Hillary Clinton
23.5%
Donald Trump
76.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Kansas?
Hillary Clinton
24.8%
Donald Trump
74.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Indiana?
Hillary Clinton
21.1%
Donald Trump
78.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Texas?
Hillary Clinton
20.9%
Donald Trump
79.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Minnesota?
Hillary Clinton
79.7%
Donald Trump
20.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Utah?
Hillary Clinton
17.5%
Donald Trump
82.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Wisconsin?
Hillary Clinton
83.3%
Donald Trump
16.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Montana?
Hillary Clinton
20.5%
Donald Trump
77.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Maine?
Hillary Clinton
78.7%
Donald Trump
21.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
*Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win South Dakota?
Hillary Clinton
23.4%
Donald Trump
76.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Kentucky?
Hillary Clinton
16.0%
Donald Trump
83.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win New Mexico?
Hillary Clinton
83.3%
Donald Trump
15.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Oregon?
Hillary Clinton
84.6%
Donald Trump
15.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win North Dakota?
Hillary Clinton
22.6%
Donald Trump
76.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Alaska?
Hillary Clinton
22.0%
Donald Trump
76.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Connecticut?
Hillary Clinton
85.5%
Donald Trump
14.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Michigan?
Hillary Clinton
88.3%
Donald Trump
11.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Tennessee?
Hillary Clinton
12.3%
Donald Trump
87.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win New Jersey?
Hillary Clinton
89.2%
Donald Trump
10.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Washington?
Hillary Clinton
89.9%
Donald Trump
9.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Louisiana?
Hillary Clinton
7.5%
Donald Trump
92.5%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Arkansas?
Hillary Clinton
8.8%
Donald Trump
91.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Nebraska?
Hillary Clinton
10.3%
Donald Trump
89.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
*Nebraska awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each congressional district. We’ve forecast each contest: StatewideDistrict 1District 2District 3
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Alabama?
Hillary Clinton
6.0%
Donald Trump
94.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Illinois?
Hillary Clinton
95.7%
Donald Trump
4.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Delaware?
Hillary Clinton
91.6%
Donald Trump
8.3%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Idaho?
Hillary Clinton
3.6%
Donald Trump
96.1%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win California?
Hillary Clinton
98.2%
Donald Trump
1.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win New York?
Hillary Clinton
98.3%
Donald Trump
1.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Rhode Island?
Hillary Clinton
93.9%
Donald Trump
6.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Vermont?
Hillary Clinton
92.9%
Donald Trump
6.9%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win West Virginia?
Hillary Clinton
2.1%
Donald Trump
97.8%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Oklahoma?
Hillary Clinton
1.3%
Donald Trump
98.6%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Massachusetts?
Hillary Clinton
98.5%
Donald Trump
1.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Wyoming?
Hillary Clinton
4.8%
Donald Trump
94.7%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Maryland?
Hillary Clinton
99.8%
Donald Trump
0.2%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win Hawaii?
Hillary Clinton
99.5%
Donald Trump
0.4%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
Who will win D.C.?
Hillary Clinton
100.0%
Donald Trump
0.0%
Projected vote share over time
Chances over time
← Swipe for more forecasts →
Latest polls
From polls to a forecast
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.
National polls
Our model is mostly based on state polls, but national polls inform various steps of its calculations, such as the trend line adjustment, house effects adjustment and demographic regression.
From polls to an adjusted average
Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.