Hillary Clinton now leads Trump in every swing state — and three red states are tied up
Conventional modern wisdom says that Presidential elections are decided by a group of key “swing states” in which the population is sufficiently evenly split along democrat vs republican and liberal vs conservative lines that they could go either way. Most pundits agree on what the swing states are, and the easiest way to predict the winner is to watch the polls in those particular states. But as it turns out, Hillary Clinton now leads Donald Trump in every swing state – and in fact three traditionally “red” states are in play as well.
Most states are winner take all in the general election. So we already know that, for instance, Hillary Clinton is almost certain to win 100% of the electoral votes in the liberal leaning California, while Donald Trump will win 100% of the electoral votes in conservative leaning states like Alabama and Idaho. That makes the swing states particularly important. Those swing states are, in alphabetical order: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Some states on that list have far more electoral votes to offer than others, and are thus considered more crucial. But here’s the kicker. As of July, Hillary Clinton leads in the polls in every single swing state. The most competitive one is North Carolina, where she holds just a two point lead in an average of the polls. She’s up by five points in Florida and four points in Ohio, which have played pivotal roles in recent Presidential elections. Some pundits want you think the 2016 election will hinge on Pennsylvania, but Hillary has a seven point average lead there. In the supposed swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, she’s leading by low double digits.
When one candidate leads every swing state, the race is on track for an Electoral College blowout unless the losing candidate can make up for it in states that are supposed to be safely in the hands of the other side. But a check of the traditionally “blue” states, the ones that the Democrat is supposed to win, reveals that Trump isn’t competitive in the polls in any of them. Instead, when you look at the “red” states that the Republican is supposed to have locked up, the race is virtually tied in three of them.
Trump is ahead by less than one point in Arizona, ahead by one point in Missouri, and ahead by two points in Georgia. This would be good news for him, if not for the fact that these are all traditionally red states that the Republican candidate is supposed to be winning handily. With each of these three states closer than the margin of error, they’re all statistical ties at the moment. If Hillary did win one or more of those three states, along with most or all of the swing states, she’d be looking at the biggest blowout victory in a generation. There are, however, a number of caveats.
The election is still four months away. Running mates haven’t been announced. Conventions haven’t taken place. The minds of undecided voters can change. And it may be too early for state level general election polls to be trusted for accuracy. But if the polls are even close to framing this election correctly, it means the traditional swing states are now blue states, and some traditional red states are now swing states. State level polling data available here.
What I’m starting to wonder, is whether Donald will make it to Nov. Hell, I’m starting to wonder if he’ll stay in the race through the convention.
I don’t know if he ever really expected to have to compete against a girl for a job at this point in his life. He isn’t really interested in governing; that’s way too much work.
And he might not just get beat by a girl, he might get his ass kicked by such huge margins that his place in the Electoral Hall of Shame will be ensured for all posterity – and I don’t think his ego can take that hit. As soon as it really hits him that he might lose to Hillary by historic proportion, I think he’ll bail.
He can make some crap Ross Perot style conspiracy claim and just quit – let the RNC deal w/the fallout.
Trump would simply have to take a break till after Hillary’s Inauguration and his fraud lawsuit is settled, and he can hit the huckster circuit w/Santorum & the rest of the GOP perpetual candidates.
There’s a reason he isn’t spending any of his money to get his national campaign running – he has no national campaign. I don’t think he’s going to put another dime of his money in – he’ll just keep paying himself as long as he possibly can from what donations come in. What he’s NOT doing is funding any kind of presidential campaign – and he isn’t going to.
He’s going to pay himself. As he has been, and then he’ll walk away before a single ballot is cast.
And, added benefit, he’ll never have to show his taxes, since he never intended to anyway.
I tend to agree with you, Trump wants out. But he’s going to need an escape, he can’t just quit. That’s the clincher. He has to have some one or some thing to blame it on so he won’t look like the loser he is….
I just have my fingers crossed he makes it to the convention. I think he wants out, but his ego won’t let him give the GOP what it wants. This man is truly a mental case.
Pennsylvania average poll lead is Clinton +2.5%.
Don’t crack out the bubbly yet.
I agree with you and have thought this way for a while. Trump has bitten off more than he can chew. I don’t think he ever thought he’d get this far and his self sabotaging big mouth is his way of trying to get out of it. Darned fool Republicans just continue to cheer him on! He’s realized he’s stuck in it now and needs yet another way to get out before he gets his ass whooped by a “girl”.