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DiscussionWould a 1936 Soviet invasion of Germany be successful? (self.hoi4)

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[–]darth_Marshmallow 15ポイント16ポイント  (4子コメント)

According to the icebreaker theory, in real life the plan was to wait till the Allies and the Axis were weary and tired, upgrade the entire red army and 'liberate' Europe.

[–]Infidius 6ポイント7ポイント  (3子コメント)

Suvorov claimed lots of things - his book seemed like an eye-opener to me when I was younger, but now that I know more I am inclined to believe he was full of it. I re-read it recently and noticed I can literally point out half a dozen inaccuracies, omissions or outright lies on every page of the book.

For example: he makes a huge fuss (in fact a whole chapter) about how USSR had tanks that were designated "A", and that it meant "Autobahn" so they were fast and designed for invasion of Germany.

Fun fact: USSR did have those tanks. Namely, A-5, A-6, A-34. "A" was the letter used for prototypes and it was replaced with another when the tank went into production. So they became BT-5, BT-6, T-34.

While I cannot argue on the premise that "hey this was not Stalin's plan" because I simply do not know what was inside Stalin's head, the simple fact that Suvorov was wrong about pretty much every single thing in his book makes me think that the main premise of the book is false, as well.

[–]darth_Marshmallow 2ポイント3ポイント  (2子コメント)

Suvorov isn't the only person to make such claims, pieces of history serve as evidence. It's well known that Stalin is one of the first foreigners to read Mein Kampf and he read it right while Hitler was rising to power, Mein Kampf hints at a plan to invade Russia many times, Stalin surely would have some kind of plans at least.

Stalin rose to power in 1929 and by 1939 he had more tanks then the rest of the World combined, when Czarist Russia had almost no tanks except for some armored vehicles? That too tanks much better than Germany's? It could be argued that it was to be used for defense. But in 1941 Stalin's army was placed in an offensive position instead of defensive.

The icebreaker theory also heavily fits Stalin's personality, during his rise to power he pitted his rivals against each other and later took advantage of them either purging or deposing them. Even before Suvorov started writing Trotsky who was still alive hinted at this theory and then he was mysteriously killed of in Mexico.

[–]Infidius 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

One thing serves against all this: had Stalin planned a war, he would not have purged the military. As the result of The Purge, (and forgive me if I am missing some numbers, citing from memory here) something like 98% of all officers ranked Major or higher (and equivalent rank in other branches) have been imprisoned or executed. As a result, when Germany attacked, many Soviet divisions were commanded by officers who never even went to a proper military academy. On a couple of fronts, Armies consisting of 5 divisions were led by men who were promoted from Platoon Commander to Army Commander in a matter of 3 years. Story has it when German command found out about the purge, they actually threw a party.

Historically Russian rulers have always been more afraid of an internal uprising. Even today, Russia's Interior Ministry forces - basically motorized infantry dedicated to putting down rebellions - outnumbers the Army. I think Stalin was so paranoid about losing his grip of power that he may have lost his grip on reality and missed the real danger.

[–]darth_Marshmallow 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

In the book it's argued that the purging was done to make the military and high command more loyal/obedient and prepare it, Stalin planned to invade around somewhere between or after 1944 by then all the purging would have been fixed. Germany just invaded while Stalin was still preparing.