More bad polling news for Donald Trump: Voters in a half-dozen Senate swing states (which are also largely presidential swing states) don't trust him to select the late Justice Antonin Scalia's replacement – and they largely don't support him for president.

Overall the issue continues to be a drag on Republicans in key states.

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PPP polled registered voters in Arizona, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for Americans United for Change and the Constitutional Responsibility Project, asking them, among other things, about whom they want picking Scalia’s replacement. Almost across the board, they prefer Obama to Trump: Excepting Arizona, the voters prefer Obama by 9 to 17 percentage points. (Obama led 46-45 in the Grand Canyon state, which was within the margin of error; in Iowa the president led 49-39, in New Hampshire 53-39, Ohio 50-41, Pennsylvania 51-42, Wisconsin 54-37.) It’s not clear why they tested Trump versus Obama but not Trump versus Clinton.

Where they did test Trump versus Clinton was in the presidential matchup. Clinton holds an 8-percentage point lead in Wisconsin (47-39) and leads (barely) outside the margin of error in Pennsylvania (46-42), Ohio (44-40) and New Hampshire (43-39); she's got a within-the-margin-of-error lead in Iowa (41-39) and Trump's got a lead that's barely outside the margin in Arizona (44-40). Honestly those 4-point leads aren't great for Clinton but leading is better than the alternative – and no Democrat has gotten close to a 4-point deficit in Arizona since Bill Clinton won the state in 1996.

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Stuck Between Scalia and a Trump Place

New polls show the GOP's Supreme Court obstructionism could hurt the party in 2016.

On a state level, the polling shows, the GOP's abject refusal to hold hearings is a cutting issue in the Senate races in those states, with voters less likely by margins of 16 to 24 points to vote for a senator who opposed hearings. (In Ohio the difference is -16; it's -17 in Arizona and Pennsylvania, -18 in Iowa, -23 in Wisconsin and -24 in New Hampshire.)

It also shows that the incumbents are deeply endangered: Arizona Sen. John McCain's approval rating is under water 30-54 and he's within the margin of error against challenger Ann Kirkpatrick; Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson is upside down 33-44, and he's getting trounced by Russ Feingold, 50-37; Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey's approval rating is down 30-39 and he's within the margin of error against Democrat Katie McGinty, 40-39; Ohio Sen. Rob Portman is at 30 percent approve, 37 percent disapprove and is also within the margin of error against his Democratic challenger, former Gov. Ted Strickland, 40-39; New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte is at 40-44 approve/disapprove, and is likewise within the margin of error against Gov. Maggie Hassan, who is ahead 44-42; and Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley is the only one of the targeted Republicans with a net positive approval rating, 43-40 and he leads Democrat Patty Judge 46-39 – but being under 50 percent is bad news for an incumbent.

One other thing dragging the GOP incumbents down is Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, whose approval rating in the states ranges from 10 to 14 percent, with disapprovals in the low 40s to the mid-50s. Americans United for Change Will release the whole poll later today.


Tags: polls, Supreme Court, politics, Antonin Scalia, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, 2016 presidential election, Republican Party, Senate

Robert Schlesinger Managing Editor

Robert Schlesinger is managing editor for opinion at U.S. News & World Report. He is the author of "White House Ghosts: Presidents and Their Speechwriters." Follow him on Twitter or reach him at rschlesinger@usnews.com.