EU referendum live: pound plunges as first results come in

Brexit or remain? Rolling coverage of the results of the UK’s EU referendum as they come in, with reaction and analysis

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Andrew Sparrow

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1.21am BST 01:21

Steven Morris

In Cardiff, the Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, is concerned that the vote is going to be very close in Wales. She said places that have suffered economically through austerity seem to be those that are voting out.

1.19am BST 01:19

These are from Matthew Goodwin, the academic and Ukip expert.

— Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 24, 2016
Kettering expected to be 59-41 for Leave. Actual result 61-39. A tad over expectations for Remain #euref @CaitlinMilazzo

— Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 24, 2016
Kettering is another area where Leave is delivering a bit more punch than academic models suggest #euref

— Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 24, 2016
....wondering what message voters will send to Labour from the other northern heartlands.... #euref

— Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 24, 2016
Shetland Islands Remain 56.5, Leave 43.5. Predicted Remain 63% leave 37% #euref

1.16am BST 01:16

John Curtice, the elections expert who is number-crunching for the BBC, also has leave as favourite to win on the basis of the results we have now.

— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) June 24, 2016
John Curtice: At the moment at least the Leave side are favourites to win this Referendum - but there is still a very long way to go. #EUref

Updated at 1.18am BST

1.14am BST 01:14

The University of East Anglia is running a referendum live blog. It has been crunching the numbers and, on the basis of the first five results, is forecasting a narrow win for leave.

Predicted probability of Britain remaining: 0.48

(5 of 382 areas reporting.)

Predicted vote share for remain: 49.8%.

(90% prediction interval: 42.7% to 56.8%)

Updated at 1.19am BST

1.11am BST 01:11

With surprises in Newcastle and Sunderland, the Guardian’s Anushka Asthana summarises the EU referendum results night so far.

1.11am BST 01:11

This is from Caitlin Milazzo, an academic and Ukip expert.

— Caitlin Milazzo (@CaitlinMilazzo) June 24, 2016
Kettering - Forecast #Brexit vote 59%, UKIP 2014 EP vote 36%, Actual vote share 61% #EURef

1.09am BST 01:09

Prof John Curtice has told the BBC that turnout in London seems to be 2 or 3% lower than expected, based on figures in so far. That might be the result of terrible rain we had in the capital. If so, this is bad for remain, which counts London as a stronghold.

Flooding outside a polling station in London. Photograph: ZUMA Wire/REX/Shutterstock

Updated at 1.12am BST

1.07am BST 01:07

Stock markets have started to open in Asia and in Japan the Nikkei 225 is currently up 0.65%.

But the UK futures are now suggesting the FTSE 100 will open around 1.9% lower.

1.06am BST 01:06

Henry McDonald

Meanwhile, the count continues in Belfast, where Alasdair McDonnell MP (seated) is not looking as confident after the Sunderland result as he was earlier.

The count at Belfast Titanic visitor centre. Photograph: Henry McDonald

1.05am BST 01:05

Eight results are in so far, out of 382.

Here are the figures. It is the vote figures that count.

Areas

Remain: 5

Leave: 3

Votes

Remain: 227,726 (46.9%)

Leave: 257,816 (53.1%)

— AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) June 24, 2016
Eight #EUref results in so far - Bob Geldof 227,726 (46.9%) / Nigel Farage 257,816 (53.1%)

Updated at 1.06am BST

1.03am BST 01:03

Eddie Izzard has joined supporters of the Stronger In campaign as they gather to wait for the result of the EU referendum at the Royal Festival Hall.

1.01am BST 01:01

Richard Adams

Richard Adams has sent this from the count at Oxford town hall where the turnout has been announced as 70,411 out of 97,331 on the electoral roll – high at 72%.

The whole thing seems to have been too much for one Labour councillor, who earlier was involved in an altercation with police and then removed.

Updated at 1.02am BST

1.01am BST 01:01

With 8 results in out of 382 in the EU referendum, turnout is 69.7%.

1.00am BST 01:00

Michael Thrasher, the psephologist who is number crunching for Sky News, has just said the eight results in so far suggest it is going to be very close.

12.58am BST 00:58

The Swindon result has been announced.

Remain: 51,220 (45.3%)

Leave: 61,745 (54.7%)

This looks like a hefty leave win but, according to the Hanretty data, leave should have been doing slightly better here.

Updated at 12.59am BST

12.55am BST 00:55

Leave campaigners celebrate as they win the vote in Sunderland. Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

12.55am BST 00:55

Arron Banks, the co-founder of Leave.EU, has described the Sunderland result (see 12.20am) as a “wholesale rejection of the Labour party by its voters.”