I'd be on Trump's side of that bet, I think. (I'd buy him at 86%). Despite all his troubles, there's not really a credible plan to oust him.
Betting markets now give Trump a 14% chance of NOT being the GOP nominee. That's higher than it was before Indiana. http://bit.ly/1PEDmVl
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If he'd stumbled through April and May and barely got over 1,237... maybe. But Trump got a pretty strong mandate from GOP voters in the end.
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Trump may have gone from pluralities-->majorities precisely because GOP voters wanted to avoid contested convention.http://53eig.ht/1psELHq
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@NateSilver538 Forgive me for not understanding how it works, but what would have to happen for him to not get it? - その他の返信を表示
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@3rdGenAggie Rules are written before convention, so they could literally write a rule: "No one with last name 'Trump' can be nominee."
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@NateSilver538 do you consider betting markets in your predictive models? If not, why? -
@NateSilver538 what changed? -
@NateSilver538 Look, this is still Cleveland. Pretty sure the Q has already used up its quota of amazing things for this summer. -
@NateSilver538 Trump pulling the same Roberto Duran trick when he fought Ray Leonard a second time. Quit before you are totally humiliated. -
@NateSilver538 this number will grow, and fast -
@NateSilver538 cavs should just save everyone gas, though. -
@NateSilver538 Is Trump starting to spin up an exit strategy for himself? -
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@NateSilver538 Will go down a bit as CW talks about Trump finally pivoting. Then in a week he'll call Gov. Martinez a C or something. -
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@NateSilver538 Unbelievable that you would tweet this despite being so wrong about Trump in the beginning! He WON the nomination. A FACT. - その他の返信を表示
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@Anish_Dave@NateSilver538 Bro this is not an opinion. Go see if you can buy a bet against trump that'll pay better than $10. You can't.
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@NateSilver538 Or in other words: BUY BUY BUY http://i.imgur.com/EGWOSGW.jpg -
@NateSilver538 Some people are tired of all the winning, I guess.
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