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[–]SirSandGoblin 3071ポイント3072ポイント  (768子コメント)

I think we have embarrassed ourselves and that whatever the outcome, this country is going to be a less pleasant one.

Edit: Americans, I get it, this could describe the situation there, you can stop telling me now

[–]ngms 299ポイント300ポイント  (6子コメント)

This is basically the best summary of things. It makes it very hard to come to a serious decision.

[–]trekman3 116ポイント117ポイント  (236子コメント)

What is the nature of the embarrassment? I haven't picked up any such vibes from over here in the US. Is it just that deep divisions in the public have been exposed? Politicians being stupid? Something else?

[–]Dolphin_Titties 942ポイント943ポイント  (224子コメント)

The embarrassment comes from thinking we are somehow special in Europe. Before the referendum began our prime minister went before the European 'lawmakers' as if to threaten that we might leave if certain changes weren't made that made us exempt from various things. Needless to say Europe basically told us to go fuck ourselves and hardly any of the changes happened, so that was embarrassing. Now we are seriously on the edge of voting to leave, which is also embarrassing, and when we (hopefully) don't leave, Europe will hate us more for acting like twats and making threats. If we do leave then it's more than likely the whole EU will collapse, with other countries pulling out after us. Obviously that would make us very unpopular too. Either way it's a big shitshow and a lot of people (me included) didn't actually ask for any of it to happen - not the special exemptions, not the referendum, none of it.

[–]Imperator__ 131ポイント132ポイント  (38子コメント)

A lot of people didn't ask for it, but a lot of people voted for a government promising an IN or OUT referendum ASAP during the general election. I'd say that's a strong sign that the people wanted to take the decision into their hands

[–]Pm_me_coffee_ 102ポイント103ポイント  (9子コメント)

They also promised to leave the NHS alone and that was bullshit, how did anyone know this would be the one election promise they didn't lie about and would actually go through with.

[–]Chrisptov 23ポイント24ポイント  (5子コメント)

They had to go through with it. They were looking at either losing seats to ukip in the general election (If they didn't promise one) and or a back bench rebellion freezing their government (and the potential for a general election to be called) if they didn't go through with it.

Either way the conservatives are now deeply split down the middle. This whole thing feels like the back benchers (leave campaigners, generally ) trying to wrestle control from the more 'moderate' conservatives currently in no10

[–]amytee252 1205ポイント1206ポイント  (384子コメント)

I genuinely believe a leave vote will go down as the worst mistake in British history when generations look back on this event.

[–]SirSandGoblin 1901ポイント1902ポイント  (337子コメント)

I've seen it described as the baby boomers last big fuck you to millenials

[–]dixieStates 368ポイント369ポイント  (111子コメント)

That is an apt description. I think that we Americans will be hard pressed to top this one. Oh, wait. We can still elect Donald Trump, that should do nicely.

[–]foxo 89ポイント90ポイント  (12子コメント)

Very good description. It's true that the young people would be the ones to suffer most with immediate rampant inflation etc. It's also been said that the vote will hang on the turnout of the youth vote. So it's in their hands and they may well end up being complicit in the long run.

[–]mrcassette 294ポイント295ポイント  (146子コメント)

anyone over 70 voting is pointless... if you're 16 and can't vote it's going to affect you more in 5/10 years than someone who may not even be alive by then...

[–]Aalnius 394ポイント395ポイント  (46子コメント)

this is a super important issue that isn't really being picked up on during this referendum, it's been shown that older demographics are more likely to vote leave yet they are going to be less affected by the outcome than people under 20.

[–]OlGilGunderson 125ポイント126ポイント  (12子コメント)

The same logic applies to literally any political decision

[–]polarbeartankengine 14ポイント15ポイント  (5子コメント)

Thats true of course, but in certain votes such as this or Scottish independence referendum, there are particularly long reaching effects to account for. If you're 70 and vote in the general, you'll likely be alive and affected by most of the changes that government bring about. With a referendum like this it will be majorly affecting peoples lives for generations.

[–]LordHanley 110ポイント111ポイント  (70子コメント)

very very few people under the age of 16 will have any sort of grasp on the possible consequences of either decision. Although, you could perhaps argue that the same is true for those over the age of 16. personally, I don't think this decision should be made by the public.

[–]UberNoobSB 3869ポイント3870ポイント  (503子コメント)

I hate it and i'm embarrassed by the whole ordeal.

You're voting to leave? Well you must be a racist. Voting to stay? You obviously don't care about your country and it's people.

It's a farce. There has been zero facts and the whole thing has been fueled by attacks on the other campaign, rather than defending their own. We're being asked to make a huge decision without being given any solid facts whatsoever. If we can't discuss the issue like grown ups then they shouldn't be discussing it at all.

Edit: zero facts is an over statement, but not far off. My point is the majority of the referendum has been based of misleading facts or downright lies, and very little emphasis has been put on the facts that matter

Edit 2: First gold, at least it was for something respectable! For those of you interested by the way I was planning to vote remain, but I still think the whole referendums been god awful.

[–]johngreenink 608ポイント609ポイント  (231子コメント)

I am surprised by how little information there is to understand what the vote is actually about (this is in the US.) I've tried to sort it out, and it's difficult. It would appear that the vote stems from the idea that the lack of stability in the EU, primarily based on economic problems and immigration, are the cause for the vote to leave. But there seems also to be repercussions to the leave vote that aren't being discussed either. Very hard for outsiders to get all this.

[–]nivlark 673ポイント674ポイント  (149子コメント)

It's an internal battle for the leadership of the Conservative party wrapped up in the guise of a democratic referendum. A vote for Leave is an implicit vote of no confidence in Cameron's leadership, opening the door for the big names in the leave campaign to replace him. Many are populist figures, existing considerably further right than Cameron.

[–]Semper_nemo13 168ポイント169ポイント  (102子コメント)

I think Cameron is out either way, and good riddance, the whole thing is a farce. If we stay those the right wing Torries will obfuscate until a party shake up is forced, if we decide to crash ourselves into the Atlantic, no confidence will happen because Cameron has failed. And I would not blame Scotland from trying to force their way out again.

[–]honestFeedback 180ポイント181ポイント  (49子コメント)

I think Cameron is out either way, and good riddance

whilst I don't like Cameron one little bit, I'd far rather him than any of the alternatives TBH. The three others (Johnson, May or Osborne) are far worse.

[–]Grimreap32[🍰] 410ポイント411ポイント  (58子コメント)

It honestly has got to the level of American presidential campaign levels of crazy. In the sense of, there is so much bias, so little truth. Heck if I do vote - it'd be to vote to stay in only because the evil I know is better than the evil I don't.

[–]SLOGiants 77ポイント78ポイント  (10子コメント)

I hate it and i'm embarrassed by the whole ordeal.

Exactly how I, as an American, feel about the presidential election this year.

[–]norwichpubtours 2215ポイント2216ポイント  (620子コメント)

I think a false dichotomy has arisen in the UK, whereby anyone who wants "out" is an elderly, anti-immigrant Sun reader and anyone who wants "in" is a naive, fearful youth who has been fooled by the government's lies.

Whilst there are definitely people who fit into these categories, in reality both camps are incredibly diverse in their demographic. I, and most of my liberal friends, are voting to stay in, but the "stay" campaign has done nothing to legitimize that decision. Similarly, however, I have lots of left-leaning friends who consider the Brexit vote an opportunity to knock the Tory government from its pedestal and think the UK leaving the EU will do exactly that.

Ultimately, it comes down to selfish reasons for me. I take people on historical tours of pubs - most of those people tend to be tourists, and I worry that tourism might be affected if we leave. It might not be, either. There are lots of unknowns, but the only thing I think we can all agree on is that both campaigns have only served to muddy the waters. This is a decision that should be rooted in facts, not fear mongering and doomsday predictions. But alas, this is politics, and politics is rarely concerned about the facts.

Cheeky edit: Can I just say how rare it is, these days, to have a sensible discussion about politics on the internet. Whatever your opinion, if the public debate about this referendum had been half as respectful and insightful as this one, we'd all be far more equipped to make an informed decision. I feel invigorated.

[–]FungusFunTime 554ポイント555ポイント  (159子コメント)

Why do your left leaning friends think that a leave vote would mean an end to Tory government?

I think its much more likely that it would mean an end to this current Tory government and its replacement with a slightly worse one.

[–]_Swing 70ポイント71ポイント  (26子コメント)

Brexit, could make David very angry at Boris and other Conservatives who want Brexit; possibly two "factions" (within the party) could be created, thereby effectively losing the Conservatives' majority rule. Perhaps, some Conservative voters who aren't really that into the party and just voted for them because of promises or because they didn't know who to vote for might move to support Labour instead.

It might not happen but anyone would be paranoid if it could happen to their party.

[–]MrAlignment 62ポイント63ポイント  (18子コメント)

I can't help but imagine if we get a split of the Conservatives, then it would actually be the final death knell for the Labour party, with their center's dissatisfaction with Corbyn. We'd end up with two new parties, a new centrist 'Tory' party and essentially UKIP/Whigs. Labour would be relegated to a fringe left party.

[–]cowbutt6 39ポイント40ポイント  (7子コメント)

And that's without considering another Scottish referendum for independence from the UK if Scotland overwhelmingly votes to remain in the EU (as expected). Hello permanent Tory majority from English seats alone.

[–]littlenymphy 10ポイント11ポイント  (6子コメント)

Even if Scotland remain part of the UK I don't think people here are likely to vote for anything other than SNP in the immediate future so you'd probably be stuck with the Tories either way if that's any consolation.

[–]chowieuk 748ポイント749ポイント  (106子コメント)

People using this as a protest vote are fucking idiots. I've heard people saying they want to vote leave because the remain camp is negative. i want to strangle them. Vote based on the facts, not based on who you like most out of BoJo and cameron

Edit: ha. This comment has thrice my total karma before I posted it. Note to self - call people idiots

[–]Homusubi 322ポイント323ポイント  (39子コメント)

I'm going to vote Remain, but absolutely nothing the official Remain campaign has said would get me to vote Remain if I was undecided.

[–]HarryCrumb 239ポイント240ポイント  (12子コメント)

Yeah, it's going to be frustrating watching a smug Cameron trying to take credit for any successful remain vote. I'd like to see a 3rd option, "Remain despite the bullshit propaganda".

[–]SiarAlbannach 199ポイント200ポイント  (1子コメント)

"Remain but pretend it's Leave until Cameron resigns"

[–]Homusubi 29ポイント30ポイント  (0子コメント)

Remain despite the bullshit propaganda

If only. If only...

[–]spongo3 90ポイント91ポイント  (31子コメント)

Vote based on the facts...

What facts? I haven't heard one single factual claim from either side of the debate. It's all blatant lies, exaggeration, and appeals to emotion.

[–]VforVal 510ポイント511ポイント  (79子コメント)

Leaving the EU to temporarily weaken a disliked party is such a selfish, stupid, shortsighted reason I don't even have words to argue.

How can they legitimately justify it?

[–]ZenoGrigio 72ポイント73ポイント  (30子コメント)

Well I guess they justify it by weighing the short-term gains over the long-term losses and concluding its worth it

[–]kornian 33ポイント34ポイント  (8子コメント)

Worst case scenario for leave: tanks the already fragile British economy, destabilises Europe and pushes global economy to the brink of collapse.

Worst case scenario for remain: Britain keeps paying £500 million a year to support the EU. Has to rename beer to alcohol flavoured water and takes in more poor foreigners grabbing shit jobs.

[–][deleted] 27ポイント28ポイント  (10子コメント)

Well, with the current Tory government it looks like they want to make the UK even worse for middle class and poor people, especially the whole fuzz about privatisation in the health sector and the completely absurd housing and rent situation.

If the outlook for the future is getting definetely fucked the alternative of most likely getting fucked suddenly isn't such a bad choice.

[–]tps-report 25ポイント26ポイント  (14子コメント)

Historical tours of pubs sounds amazing? Do you do this in London? Can I have a link?

[–]RaggySparra 208ポイント209ポイント  (32子コメント)

Agreed. I intend to vote Remain, but every day I'm going "Please, please stop being on my side" - because frankly, while everyone is going "the Leave side are bigoted and hateful" - so are the Remain side.

I find it kind of painful that I have to "agree" with Cameron but he's essentially why I'm voting stay - I'm not pro-EU, I don't think the EU is good for us, but I think we have a slightly better chance of Cameron killing fewer people while we're in the EU. (Slightly, and fewer - we're in the EU right now, and if you look at how much damage he's done to disabled people who need to claim benefits, just for one example...)

[–]Genocide_Bingo 242ポイント243ポイント  (19子コメント)

Who Wants To Be A Millionaire:

David Cameron, this is your question: Who have you fucked over the most in your time ruling this country:

A) The Homeless

B) The Armed Forces

C) A Dead Pig

D) The Disabled and Vulnerable.

[–]BambooSound 196ポイント197ポイント  (7子コメント)

In all fairness he fucked the pig before he took power

[–]mg33 24ポイント25ポイント  (0子コメント)

Also let's be real here, what difference is one million going to make to David Cameron? Son of a stockbroker and all that, he's already a millionaire

[–]FanAtticFebOven 44ポイント45ポイント  (2子コメント)

Damn man, you actually managed to be neutral in a post on Brexit.

[–]Eddie_Hitler 205ポイント206ポイント  (169子コメント)

The Remain campaign are arrogantly assuming that all "young people" in this country are fanatically pro-EU and will all turn out en-masse to vote Remain by default (seriously - most of the people I know are voting remain for reasons that cannot possibly affect them) and save the day from those nasty racist old pensioners who are voting Leave.

Then to celebrate their victory, they can have freedom of movement to interrail or board that 17p RyanJet3 flight to Croatian Beach Resortski where they can drink enough to develop cirrhosis of the liver for just £5 - and don't forget the free roaming charges so they can Facetwat and InstaBook the whole thing in real time. This is just bread and circuses while taking the young for fools.

I'm undecided, but as a "young voter" at 29, I can tell you Kinnock and Miliband are making a very dangerous assumption in assuming that these 1.5m unregistered "young" voters will step into the breach. Many won't vote at all, and many will vote leave - perhaps out of spite and to buck the system.

The young people in this country have been utterly bent over and boned hard in recent years, nor do they like being talked down to or told what to think. I guarantee you there are many Brexiters lurking in those ranks.

[–]F_A_F 169ポイント170ポイント  (96子コメント)

The young people in this country have been utterly bent over and boned hard in recent years, nor do they like being talked down to or told what to think.

Not just the young, bro. Try being 41 on the average UK salary and unable to afford a mortgage on anything bigger than a B&Q shed...

[–]hackl 122ポイント123ポイント  (83子コメント)

Or, try being 37 and on double the UK average salary and still unable to afford a mortgage on anything bigger than a B&Q shed.

[–]tarantulus 74ポイント75ポイント  (12子コメント)

And the old-aged assholes telling you "move somewhere cheaper" or "work harder"

So my options are a 3 hour commute or working so much my son grows up without me.

[–]Danibaldi 3201ポイント3202ポイント  (862子コメント)

From a different perspective, I am a Welsh nationalist and will be voting to Remain because Wales would be on the brink of an economic collapse if we leave the EU. We get significantly more out of the EU than we put in, purely financially, and I have no faith whatsoever in the UK Government to replace that funding. We get so much out of the EU because we have some of the highest poverty levels in the whole of Europe - the London-centric UK Government seemingly has no interest in rectifying the structural reasons for Wales' poverty and poor economic performance.

Alongside that, I think the EU is fundamentally a force for good in the world. Freedom of movement and a peaceful, stable Europe are two achievements that cannot be underestimated, and although I do not agree with everything the EU stands for (TTIP, for example, is a nightmare) I want Wales to play its part in it.

Regardless of the way the UK votes on Thursday, my long term aim is for Wales to be a Member State of the European Union in its own right.

[–]imnotjoeyramone 831ポイント832ポイント  (85子コメント)

I have the same reasoning as someone from the north of England. Northern cities receive so much funding from the EU while Westminster would rather see us rot. So much regeneration in places like Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle came about because of Objective One EU funding. I'm scared that leaving will bring about another Thatcherite annihilation of the north.

[–]Danibaldi 119ポイント120ポイント  (48子コメント)

Agree entirely. I don't know what I would do if I were from the north of England - I think you are as peripheral to Westminster as we are, but you are within your own country!

[–]helpmeobireddit 191ポイント192ポイント  (45子コメント)

I live in the North East. I read up on EU funding, I did my fucking research and me and my partner will vote Remain with heads held high because WE understand the importance of the EU funding and its many other benefits. But we're surrounded by a sea of racist, misinformed nut jobs that haven't don't any research past Facebook infographics and complain about how shit Cameron runs the country but don't see the irony in giving him full control by voting out. smh

[–]melonaders 61ポイント62ポイント  (30子コメント)

North Yorkshire here, not sure on figures etc but I can completely agree with this. Lots of racist farming families whose main reasoning for voting leave is for the immigration situation. Which is quite ironic because we're barely affected at all by immigration, we aren't a very culturally diverse county at all.

[–]merryman1 1182ポイント1183ポイント  (205子コメント)

I am confused as to why so many people are so confident that all the savings from Brexit are going to be put straight back to where it goes already, on top of fixing the NHS, rebuilding our infrastructure, providing new jobs, and constructing more housing. I have a strong feeling we're probably going to piss it away on some tax-break or another London-based project that does fuck all for the rest of the country.

[–]PM_me_dog_pictures 649ポイント650ポイント  (62子コメント)

It's a tiny amount of savings that will likely be entirely eaten up by the devaluation of the pound, let alone any other economic effects of leaving. It won't end up in the government pocket, much less back in hospitals or housing.

[–]spottybotty 543ポイント544ポイント  (53子コメント)

It's not even a saving, as /u/merryman1 thinks; it's a loss. The best case scenario says we lose 2.2% of GDP by leaving the EU. That's £9.963 billion. Our net contributions to the EU are £8.5 billion.

So the most optimistic projection sees leaving the EU as costing us our entire net contribution plus over £1 billion more.

The IFS have confirmed this.

[–]KL_boy 36ポイント37ポイント  (2子コメント)

Not to mention the extra work req to manage custom, extra money for CAP and regional development and to replace work that was previously done / funded on the EU level.

[–]Sjoerd920 9ポイント10ポイント  (0子コメント)

People forget that a lot of that money would have to be used on activities the EU now takes care of.

[–]Canduff 38ポイント39ポイント  (6子コメント)

I was thinking about this the other day, and it might be useful if you're discussing the vote or campaigning before the 23rd.

If we left, assuming the economy doesn't tank, and assuming we ignore that we directly pay £350M/day to the bloc, we'd first have to spend a lot of that money into the programs that the EU was funding prior to the vote; infrastructure, agricultural, town/city redevelopment, educational and cultural subsidies. We'd have money left, but far from the £350M a day that Boris claims.

This all assumes we'd be trading on the same terms, which we wont, and even with a decent trade deal we'd be paying for membership of the single market, and years of financial instability while negotiating this wonder deal Boris thinks we can get from Brussels. I'll assume, in this scenario, that we resolve the steel crisis, as that would eat into any pennies left.

The money we'd get immediately is incredibly small, and then we're trusting people like Osborne to put it into NHS funding?

[–]Long__Dog 52ポイント53ポイント  (3子コメント)

Nail, head. The inability of the 'remain' camp to keep repeating this and demand certainties of spending safeguards is one of the biggest failings of their campaign.

[–]chowieuk 35ポイント36ポイント  (2子コメント)

They hjave done plenty of times, it's just that the campaign is so far reaching that the media can't report it all, ad when they do they focus on what is most important to people, the economy and immigration. This is why there should never have beena fucking referendum

[–]HowdyDoodlyDoo 102ポイント103ポイント  (24子コメント)

It's kind of amusing that people say that it will fix the NHS when the NHS is in favour of staying in the EU.

[–]The_Bearded_Doctor 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

Plus that the Conservative Party are seemingly hellbent on dismantling and privatising the NHS anyway

[–]Aalnius 69ポイント70ポイント  (4子コメント)

hey good job guys we got all that money back from the eu but before we use it to help the company lets use it to fund some of these big companies who will definitely give it back in taxes also lets increase their tax breaks.

[–]merryman1 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

"Oh gosh darn it looks like they gave the chief shareholder's wife's best friend's company a loan for £10bn at 0% interest. Whoopsie."

[–]ewbrower 23ポイント24ポイント  (58子コメント)

What do y'all have to fix with the NHS?

[–]Holty12345 199ポイント200ポイント  (47子コメント)

Its underfunded.

Long wait times, Junior doctors being treated like shit by the Tories, lack of work being put into mental health.

The argument leavers like Farage make is that by leaving we can put the extra money into saving the NHS (Lets just Ignore that Farage wants to Privatise our health care tho)

[–]aplestormy 168ポイント169ポイント  (28子コメント)

Exactly, and the reason it's underfunded isn't because of the EU, it's because of a conservative government hell bent on making as many public sector cuts as they can to save a little money.

[–]XxsquirrelxX 77ポイント78ポイント  (6子コメント)

Reminds me of Congress here in America. They'd rather cut welfare programs and ignore our crumbling infrastructure than spend just a little more on keeping America at pace with the rest of the world.

But invading Iraq was no biggie. Ignore the 1.3 trillion bill.

[–]Gemtrem 17ポイント18ポイント  (7子コメント)

The leave campaigners have been really sneaky in their marketing, saying things like leaving the EU will mean we have this amount of money which we COULD put into the NHS, doesn't mean we will though

[–]nivlark 18ポイント19ポイント  (9子コメント)

In any case, the £10billion that goes to the EU is just pocket change in the grand scheme of things - it's barely 1% of all government spending.

[–]F_A_F 127ポイント128ポイント  (27子コメント)

Live in Cornwall. All I'd like to know is; we are the poorest county in the UK receiving a fair few million from the EU. How much would the Brexit campaign pledge to spend down here if we were to leave?

[–]punkfunkymonkey 155ポイント156ポイント  (6子コメント)

£350 Million a week.

(if they're going to spin bullshit about it going into the NHS then might as well lie about it heading to Cornwall as well.)

[–]TheresPainOnMyFace 297ポイント298ポイント  (84子コメント)

Summarised everything that I think, however in regards to Yorkshire and the North of England. Sick and tired of people telling me that the EU does nothing for them when their sons and daughters are going to majority EU funded schools and colleges and using EU funded mass transit projects to go to EU funded parks near city centres that relied upon EU funding for regeneration projects.

Vote leave, sure, but you can't blame someone else when your child's college has to withdraw her favourite subject or close entirely because the EU isn't there to fund it anymore. That responsibility lies on you and your vote, not the EU and not the government. People are fools to believe the Tories will fill the hole for regional funding.

[–]tom196 33ポイント34ポイント  (47子コメント)

Genuine questions: You say "EU funded" but where does the EU get that money from? You also say we get more out than we put in, so does that mean some other countries in the EU put more in than they get out? If so, who are they?

[–]TheresPainOnMyFace 85ポイント86ポイント  (22子コメント)

Germany, France and Sweden all put in more money than they receive. And the UK as a whole loses money, but when broken down into regions certain regions benefit, such as Wales, Yorkshire, the North West in funding. These areas however don't have as many people as those who don't benefit from EU funding as much such as London and the South East who as a whole give more to the EU, but don't get as much because they don't need it. They don't need it because the government spends disproportionately in London and the SE. All the money in the EU pot comes from every country in the EU.

[–]greenit_elvis 17ポイント18ポイント  (7子コメント)

Perhaps London will be hit hardest of all regions. The financial sector could be in huge problems if London goes from a European to a national hub. American banks might move much of their business to Frankfurt.

[–]Titanomakhia 25ポイント26ポイント  (6子コメント)

I think they're more likely to move to Dublin. Tax friendly, English speaking, common law and still in the EU.

[–]daveroo 23ポイント24ポイント  (17子コメント)

We may put a lot of money in but the EU spreads that money evenly over the entire country. Places in the north of england have really benefited from that.

We cannot trust a tory government to do the same since it has a history of ignoring the north and investing all money in London repeatedly.

Its terrifying how little people know about this in the north of england and just mention immigrants

[–]StubbornAssassin 64ポイント65ポイント  (17子コメント)

Its depressing especially for northerners. Liverpool as a city was given so much for capital of culture, the entire of Merseyside benefits so much yet you get ignorant racists wanting to leave just cos immigrants stealing muh jobs

[–]oculomotor_astatine 36ポイント37ポイント  (9子コメント)

I heard someone say something about immigrants that was really clever a while back. He called them Schroëdinger's Immigrants : somehow they're lazy and leeching off welfare AND taking everyone's jobs at the same time. Obviously these are not the only reasons to want to control immigration, but it always strikes me as funny when they complain that they're either lazy or taking jobs or both.

[–]human_error 24ポイント25ポイント  (4子コメント)

I think this stems from grouping two different groups of migrants together - you have EU migrants who seem to work more and provide more competition for local workers. These can be long term migrants or seasonal (the UK receives ~330,000 long term and over 700k seasonal migrants from the EU annually according to the stats on national insurance numbers issued).

You then have what are perceived as illegal immigrants from africa, the middle east and parts of asia who come to the UK seeking a new life but due to lack of skills (such as the inability to speak english) they take much longer before being able to join the workforce (there is also the question on if all of them want to join the workforce, as wives of some migrants are from countries/cultures where women don't work giving the appearance of them only coming for benefits).

No matter if you believe the intentions of those coming in or not this does explain why people see immigrants as lazy or taking jobs - there are two very different reasons to come to the UK for a lot of immigrants and that gives rise to the two perceptions.

[–]bennie-andthejets 354ポイント355ポイント  (217子コメント)

Also Welsh. Nothing about the referendum has made me quite as angry as Welsh people wanting to leave the EU.

[–]Porkthepie 235ポイント236ポイント  (120子コメント)

I'm Cornish and I feel the exact same with Cornish people wanting to leave. I mean there are signs everywhere saying 'funded by the EU' but still loads of people want out.

[–]Rekoza 108ポイント109ポイント  (63子コメント)

Just got back from a short holiday in Cornwall. Not seen more Leave signs anywhere than I have driving around Cornwall. Very surprising to me because Cornwall is very reliant on EU funding. Mostly farmland seemed to have it which I was under the impression benefited significantly from the EU.

[–]nivlark 176ポイント177ポイント  (56子コメント)

Farmers are weird. On average half their income comes from the EU via CAP subsidies, and many make use of migrant labour to help with their harvests. But for some reason they are still majority-Leave.

[–]LoubyLoo 21ポイント22ポイント  (5子コメント)

Cornish maid here ... it's like the first time anyone has done anything for Cornwall in a couple of centuries and nobody sees it.

[–]Torchedkiwi 114ポイント115ポイント  (66子コメント)

I found myself straight up calling someone a Bradwr and a Dic Sion Dafydd for this. I'm worried it's going to tear the UK apart no matter who wins.

[–]Stellar_Duck 82ポイント83ポイント  (51子コメント)

I found myself straight up calling someone a Bradwr and a Dic Sion Dafydd for this.

Any chance of a translation? Something David?

[–]Torchedkiwi 247ポイント248ポイント  (48子コメント)

Bradwr = Traitor

Dic Sion Dafydd is something you call a Welshman who wants to be an Englishman. It's slightly incredibly insulting.

[–]CornishPaddy 77ポイント78ポイント  (26子コメント)

here here.

We love those euro-bucks in Cornwall, the highest europe funded part of the country that isn't London.

We absolutely cannot afford to lose our funding.

It's not an option.

[–]Team_Slacker 33ポイント34ポイント  (42子コメント)

Curious how you rectify those two statements, about the severe poverty and also wanting to join as an independent state. It seems to me the EU would be very wary of allowing exceedingly poor nations to join expecially after everything that has happened since the crisis.

Do you see a realistic way forward with Wales as a member of the EU but not the UK? Genuinely curious.

[–]Danibaldi 90ポイント91ポイント  (36子コメント)

I don't think there would be much opposition to Wales joining the EU from Brussels. Assuming we vote to stay in the EU (fingers crossed) we, as Welsh people, would already be considered EU citizens. I do not think voting for independence would revoke that. And in terms of our economic performance, while it is poor, it is also stable. We have a very low unemployment rate, for example. That's not really the problem - the problem is the low pay. But that's much easier to manage than economies with large proportions of the populations economically inactive. Wales is not really an economic basket-case, it's more of a bog-standard, peripheral, low-wage and high relative poverty economy. Not exactly what I want my country to be, but something that is found across Europe.

In terms of it being realistic, well... we will see. Plaid Cymru, the party which has Welsh independence as its long-term aim and raison d'etre, are on about 25% in the polls. And that doesn't mean 25% support independence. There is a consensus in Wales at the moment to develop and further the level of home-rule we currently have - getting powers over taxes, controlling our own police force, and things like that. That is taking priority over independence as an absolute aim. And in terms of support for the EU, Wales has historically been one of the most pro-EU parts of the UK, but that has, just as is the case across Britain, been thrown out of the window in this referendum campaign. Working-class people across Wales see the EU as a scapegoat for our problems and it's pretty much 50-50 here. In Scotland, its seen as their national interest to want to be in the EU, but that sort of rhetoric has not really cut through in Wales. So I'm afraid to say I'm not representative of the entire Welsh population with my view of wanting Wales to be an independent member state of the EU! But it's what I'll be campaigning for, anyway.

[–]_AxeOfKindness_ 249ポイント250ポイント  (23子コメント)

If you want to see all of the people who support the "leave" vote, sort by controversial.

[–]ClericOfTorm 58ポイント59ポイント  (11子コメント)

Its a bit of a shame that the other opinion seems to be so under represented.

[–]Blasium 24ポイント25ポイント  (0子コメント)

I think thats mostly because the demographics of remain - voters match better to the user base of european reddit users than for the leave voters.

[–]_AxeOfKindness_ 26ポイント27ポイント  (4子コメント)

It really is. I'm not from the UK so I have no dog in this fight, but I still want to see what's on everyone's minds.

[–]SDOChlo 1533ポイント1534ポイント  (204子コメント)

I was on the Leave side for the majority of the time I've been thinking about it but recently I've been persuaded to stay in simply because I don't believe that A) the EU membership is our biggest problem or B) leaving the EU would solve our actual problems.

[–]thehollowman84 1591ポイント1592ポイント  (97子コメント)

The EU is a scapegoat, as are the immigrants. The UK's problems were caused by the 2008 financial crisis just like most other countries problems. The world economy was destroyed not even 10 years ago, but everyone has seemed to forget that fact.

[–]Namika 347ポイント348ポイント  (10子コメント)

To be fair, the 2008 subprime crisis was just the gust of wind knocking down flimsy houses of cards. A huge portion of the Western Economies were coasting on just inertia, and structurally were much weaker than everyone had been pretending they were. Take Greece and Spain for example, their economic implosion following 2008 was due to decades of terrible governmental policy and weak exports and economic productivity. Blaming their systemic long term failure all on a few bankers in 2008 is false, and using the 2008 crisis as a scapegoat is just as short sighted as blaming today's problems on immigrants.

[–]Riaayo 13ポイント14ポイント  (0子コメント)

I think when defining the 2008 financial crisis globally, the things you mention should technically be assumed as part of it.

The housing market crash was the domino that triggered every other flimsy thing to fall over; that entire collapse, housing market and beyond, was the real crisis of 2008 and beyond.

[–]TheBestBigAl 386ポイント387ポイント  (18子コメント)

Only yesterday I was telling a friend that is seems as though everyone had forgotten that it was the banks that screwed everyone over and didn't face any consequences for it.

[–]ICTechnology 60ポイント61ポイント  (7子コメント)

I was having the exact same conversation with friends and family. Has everyone forgotten the REAL reason the financial situation is what it is? People have short memories.

[–]MGUK 51ポイント52ポイント  (6子コメント)

I think that no one actually knows what will happen, and half the figures you seen thrown around will be made up by someone trying to spin their own side.

There is a lot more we could do to improve our country rather than just blaming the EU (which isnt perfect) and pretending we're perfect.

[–]Worldgnasher 173ポイント174ポイント  (58子コメント)

Leaving the EU would actually cause economic problems for theEU an UK, but the UK's problems would last longer and be worse

[–]KarmaAndLies 414ポイント415ポイント  (25子コメント)

The EU has been a force for good within the UK. I'll name some examples:

And on, and on. I'm sure others can name countless additional examples. But my point is that a lot of what people take for granted as consumer law, employee protections, privacy protections, or limits on corporations come not from the UK government, they come from the EU. If nothing else, a lot of these directives strengthened areas of the UK's law and in almost all cases in favor of the "little guy" (private citizens, as opposed to the "big guy" companies/governments).

[–]Mithent 65ポイント66ポイント  (2子コメント)

The EU's positions on data protection and privacy, in particular, are particularly relevant when the UK government seems determined to weaken privacy and increase surveillance.

[–]Diadochii 16ポイント17ポイント  (1子コメント)

When you see things like the patriots act in the US and their blatant disregard for privacy, a large part of our legal rights and protections come from EU law.

The thought of the UK government having power over data protection is terrifying.

[–]Punicagranatum 21ポイント22ポイント  (0子コメント)

EU Habitats and Birds Directives - pretty much the most important nature protection legislation we have! And something that could cause irrevocable damage if we cut ties with it

[–]-Fen- 607ポイント608ポイント  (108子コメント)

I live in Wales, we are more supported by the EU than by London. There's really no contest about which way to vote if you're in Wales or NI. Stay. If leave hits then it's just going to be a matter of time before Scotland leaves the UK and then it'll be time for Wales to campaign to do so as well.

Also, not needing a visa to go visit Europe? That's just amazing, I wouldn't want to give that up for the world.

Edit: Inbox replies disabled. I've written a very abbreviated version of what I think and feel with generalisations with this message and I don't want to get drawn into a debate or a discussion.

[–]white_wee_wee 83ポイント84ポイント  (43子コメント)

then it'll be time for Wales to campaign to do so as well.

Wales is in no financial position to become independent, it's completely fucked. The EU is the only thing saving it at the moment, the way I would see it is that if Wales want's funding from Westminster it'd have to dissolve its assembly and join England.

[–]KvalitetstidEnsam 71ポイント72ポイント  (0子コメント)

it'd have to dissolve its assembly and join England.

...and party like it's 1535 again...

[–]leftrook 31ポイント32ポイント  (9子コメント)

If Wales was independent it could re-join the EU, if UK leaves, the government isn't going to step in and fill the void in Wales is it? Better off independent and looking for better long term changes than cripple ourselves because 'immigrants!'

[–]JonDied 8ポイント9ポイント  (0子コメント)

The problem is that to join the EU some requirements are needed, and because I don't know how well Wales fares, I am not sure if Wales can can reach those.

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/conditions-membership/index_en.htm This link tells what you need to join the EU.

[–]ArcaneYoyo 5ポイント6ポイント  (2子コメント)

Here me out. Ireland, Wales, Scotland and eventually Northern Ireland in a replacement UK. Ideally it would be far less based in one country (Cough England Cough) with the location of the parliament rotating between each country. Eventually Cornwall might break away too, but lets not be presumptuous.

[–]this-guy- 530ポイント531ポイント  (84子コメント)

The core points of the Brexit campaign are:

  1. to stop giving money to the EU when we could spend it instead.
  2. To stop foreigners coming in and taking low paid jobs and houses, also using the NHS
  3. To generally make Britain more economically independent and able to set terms on trade and employment law.
  4. To return Britain to the way was in the past. Independent, self governing and financially strong.

My problems with these:

  1. we pay money to be in a club, like being a member of a Gym, you pay money to use the facilities. Now imagine we get a vote on the gyms direction - want more hot yoga or kettlebells, we get a vote . The assumption that "Norway and Switzerland do it alone" , in fact they also pay to use the facilities but they don't get any say on policy. We do.
  2. EU migrants - if we still want full trading access to the EU region the migration laws are the exact same. If the UK had the same net EU immigration rate as Switzerland, it would mean nearly 400,000 more EU migrants a year! Any workers in Britain pay taxes, and that rightfully gives access to the NHS.
  3. To dictate trade terms with (lets say) China or USA, we must determine relative economy values. The balance of trade. Currently we trade on equal terms with them, as part of a large trading bloc. If we separate then our trade ratio gives us terrible negotiating power.
  4. "make Britain Great again!" the 50s, 60s and 70s in Britain were socially grim and our financial situation was very dire. We now live in a global mega corporate world, financial institutions now run public policy across borders. we are at the mercy of corporate interests but It's easier for them to bully a loner than a gang. Rupert Murdoch has admitted exactly this - he can bully the UK govt. but not the EU.

Tl;dr - Remain

[–]frenchbritchick 381ポイント382ポイント  (67子コメント)

I can't understand why we're being asked to vote to be honest. What the fuck do "everyday people" know about the tremendous consequences brexit would have?!

Surely this is something that experts need to decide, not random Kate from next door or average Steve from down the road?

[–]LxSwiss 42ポイント43ポイント  (7子コメント)

People often bring this argument here in switzerland as well. But I think even if those topics are highly complicated people need to feel responsible for the direction their country is going. There has to be some kind of contract between the population and the government, and there has to be some amount of trust in eachother. If the people feel that their government serves more the needs of their business partners etc than themeselves they will vote more and more for extremist parties in a desperate need to regain their voices. I think this is one of the reasons you see far right/left parties pop up because the European government is too distant, alien and ignoring the concerns of the "everyday people". Just look at paris to see what happens when people feel they are ruled from above whithout considering their needs. While instead in switzerland we have a strong right party but which is much more moderate in comparison. To come back to the complicated topics. here in switzerland when you have to vote for something you get a small brochure as well where the points from the supporters as well as the nonsupporters are written down and a recommendation of the representatives of switzerland, so if you don't know anything about the topic you can just go with the recommendation.

[–]mullak33 44ポイント45ポイント  (8子コメント)

I'm being completely and utterly serious, and me, and most people I know, don't have a clue.

[–]EmperorKira 588ポイント589ポイント  (130子コメント)

I've voting remain. Yes europe is a clusterfuck but the problems it has can be solved, and the problems we will get if we leave will not be. I have real issues with Brussels, but the good outweighs the bad.

Also i hate this whole fucking immigration scare tactic. Even if i was super anti-immigration, the whole syrian refugee flood is a bullshit scare tactic. Do people forget we have the channel anyway? Also we guard the french side of the border in a special deal we have with them. We could lose that anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if immigration become WORSE by leaving. And if you worry about EU immigration? Well i guess the 2 million+ UK citizens leaving in spain and france better head home then.

[–]SpudsMcGugan 37ポイント38ポイント  (31子コメント)

On my way in to manchester there was a big sign saying something along the lines of " Turkey wants to join the EU, Vote leave". Immigration scare tactic, considering how not many turks actually have passports.

[–]dpash 19ポイント20ポイント  (0子コメント)

Turkey has been in the queue for EU membership since 1987. Countries that have applied after that date and joined are: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Sweden. Which is to say, the reason Turkey hasn't joined isn't because the process is slow. It took Croatia almost exactly 10 years from application to becoming a member. Slovenia was 8 years and Finland was under three.

Issues for Turkey joining include Erdogan's authoritarianism and disregard of human rights, Northern Cyprus and therefore Greece's likely veto of membership. If anything, their membership status is getting further away.

The former Yugoslavian countries are more likely to join before Turkey, and I'm including Kosovo in that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union

[–]dugsmuggler 128ポイント129ポイント  (8子コメント)

I'm English.

I work in England for an British company, fitting Dutch made materials onto German made vehicles for a German headquatered multinational that is 75% owned by the French government.

My wife is an EU citizen.

My livelihood and family life depends on free trade and freedom of movement.

Remain.

[–]Marty445 9ポイント10ポイント  (0子コメント)

Dutch made materials onto German made vehicles

Stroopwafel cars?

[–]dan_142 1081ポイント1082ポイント  (279子コメント)

As an economics student, I can confidently say that almost everything I've read from the leave campaign, at least from a financial standpoint, has been a huge mistake at best, or at worst they are just plain lying to the people. Add on the fact that we will need to keep open borders if we want access to the single market, and I cannot see any reasonable reason to vote leave. I'm not suggesting the remain campaign have behaved entirely reasonably either, but many of their claims have at least some evidence to back them up.

Edit: Should've figured this would strike a chord. I'm not claiming to be an expert, just throwing my opinion out there, feel free to disagree.

Edit 2: John Oliver has said it better than I can, I encourage you to watch the following video: https://youtu.be/iAgKHSNqxa8

[–]FungusFunTime 741ポイント742ポイント  (102子コメント)

My personal favourite feature of the leave campaign is this "people are tired of experts" rhetoric.

Its incredible to me that anyone can unashamedly admit that they're ignoring expert opinion in favour of "what I reckon is...".

[–]astrakhan42 507ポイント508ポイント  (61子コメント)

If you want to see what happens when people "get tired of experts", then let me introduce you to Mr. Trump and Mrs. Palin.

[–]TwoSquareClocks 186ポイント187ポイント  (51子コメント)

When intellectuals make fun of poorly-educated and uninformed people, as opposed to helping them understand the issues at hand, they will inevitably lose their credibility among that group.

[–]Shasan23 178ポイント179ポイント  (42子コメント)

Young earth creationists, climate change deniers, conspiracy theorists, vaccine alarmists, flat earth believers, moon landing deniers, and many other poorly educated/poorly informed people will not change their mind no matter what. Anybody arguing aginst their dogma never had or will have credibility, in their eyes. Thats the unfortunate reality.

[–]TwoSquareClocks 106ポイント107ポイント  (34子コメント)

Indeed, but those people are a very vocal minority and stereotyping all working-class people as such is exactly the sort of thing that drives the spiteful reaction of "fed up with experts".

[–]SpookyLlama 122ポイント123ポイント  (36子コメント)

Anything I've heard from the Leave campaign just seems to be pseudo-economics. Just pandering to people who aren't going to question a leaflet with a whole load of numbers and the word 'NHS' plastered across it.

[–]gnorty 38ポイント39ポイント  (32子コメント)

Have you ever heard a pro-Brexit spokesman say "we will spend the 650m (lol) on the NHS"?

instead it is always "we *could" spend it on" - NHS/job creation/Tax cuts on energy/schools blah blah blah. All things that have recently been CUT in favour of feeding the top earners. How do they manage to sell this to the public so successfully??

[–]Fraser467 63ポイント64ポイント  (38子コメント)

Exactly, a lot of people voting to leave due to 'immigration problems' don't realise that won't change by leaving the EU. It's hard to say what would happen overall though

[–]redmercuryvendor 20ポイント21ポイント  (21子コメント)

And even if you discount the economic argument entirely, the rhetoric over immigration doe snot add up either. Yes, remaining within the EU will mean no mechanism to prevent citizens of EU member states from immigrating and working. But those immigrants make a net contribution to public finances. If they were to leave, public services would be economically worse off.
Then there are non-EU immigrants. Those, we already have the authority to control and reject. Leaving the EU would not impact this ability. We are already outside of the Schengen Area, we already implement border controls and passport checks on our borders. There is not some unguarded tunnel through which non-EU immigrants can 'sneak in' disguised as EU citizens.

In terms of policy, we get down to the issue that we still need to trade with the EU, so any goods (and services!) we export need to comply with EU regulations. Cars will still need to be equipped with EOBD, foodstuffs will still need to comply with 90/496/EEC, and so on. We will be regulated to EU directives de-facto, just with no ability to affect them anymore.

There is also the issue that Scotland certainly wishes to remain within the EU, and likely Wales and Northern Ireland would have some desire to remain (NI particularly due to the land border with the Republic of Ireland).

[–]barrytrousers 276ポイント277ポイント  (85子コメント)

I think people are angry in the UK for two reasons...

1) It feels like Europe is slowly becoming controlled by a single government. Most people have no idea who runs it, how they got there, or what they do.

2) Immigration is out of control. David Cameron promised in 2009 that if he became Prime Minister he would bring net migration to less than 100,000. Last year is was 330,000.

I'm still voting remain though because I think the EU has brought a lot of good to Europe, and we can fix the problems we have.

[–]Undoer 187ポイント188ポイント  (13子コメント)

To be fair, David Cameron would've promised he'd fuck a pig on live television if he thought it'd secure him #10.

[–]tiddlypip 49ポイント50ポイント  (15子コメント)

Weirdly half of the immigrants were people from outside the EU that they choose to allow in. The problem for the government is that the only growth in the economy is from migration. If you didn't have migration we'd have a similar problem to the Japanese. .

[–]Hoobacious 30ポイント31ポイント  (10子コメント)

The problem for the government is that the only growth in the economy is from migration.

Exactly. It's just a simple fact that we do not have enough children in most of the west to either sustain current growth or even just tread water as a population. That gives us limited options, we either need to give major incentives for young families which is pricey and doesn't necessarily work or we go the easy route of bringing in young immigrants at the cost of societal cohesion.

Alternatively we abandon the notion of permanently increasing growth and content ourselves with the fact that our native population is falling and our children may lead less prosperous lives than our own as they need to prop up those that came before them.

Regardless, the only way that western native populations do not fall is by having children, and we are not, not on the scale necessary to grow or maintain. Our societies in their current state cannot survive like this.

[–]SakhosLawyer 1895ポイント1896ポイント  (486子コメント)

The people telling me to vote leave are Nigel Farage, Katie Hopkins, The Sun 'newspaper' and my dad. Why the fuck would I listen to them about something like this? To be honest most of the reasons for/against are vague or seem like assumptions or bullshit reasons. Things are fine as they are and I see no reason to leave, and the people telling me to leave tend to ne idiots anyway

[–]lasersharknado 1771ポイント1772ポイント  (193子コメント)

I am glad you are writing this. I am German and moved to the UK in 1998. Left in 2011.

I love Europe and love the UK. It is my spiritual home. I love the people, the humour and the country side. The food and then beer.

The Peak District, Lake District, Wales, Scotland, Suffolk, Devon and Cornwall. Never ending. There are many that love the UK that weren't born there.

I remember border controls travelling through each country when I was young.

After Europe united you could study anywhere, retire anywhere, do business anywhere, live anywhere. Amazing.

I could ride my motorbike from London home to Germany in 6 hours and travel through my home. Europe.

My grandfather almost died fighting Germany in the war. When I visited him I blew his mind trying to explain that I rode my bike on to a train, through a tunnel in a train that goes under the sea from England.

Europe has come so far in 50 years. Now Farage, Gove and Johnston are destroying everything just because they want to be in power and rule England. Not the Uk. Just England.

If the UK leave Europe it will be a step back.

[–]wOlfLisK 312ポイント313ポイント  (145子コメント)

Honestly, if we do leave, I'd seriously consider emigrating to Ireland or Germany and eventually regaining EU citizenship.

[–]cahillrock 77ポイント78ポイント  (4子コメント)

I'd seriously consider emigrating to Ireland

bring money

[–]promisedjoy 335ポイント336ポイント  (101子コメント)

Just move to Scotland. In the event of Brexit, we'll be out of the UK and back in the EU in a couple of years.

[–]wOlfLisK 94ポイント95ポイント  (38子コメント)

Ooh, I'd probably be able to have dual UK and Scottish citizenship then, wouldn't I? Edinburgh, here I come!

Well, after university that is.

[–]KMKSouthie2001 23ポイント24ポイント  (27子コメント)

American here, so forgive my lack of knowledge on the subject.

Didn't Scotland vote against independence last year or the year before? Would Brexit change Scotland's stance on independence?

[–]ultrasu 57ポイント58ポイント  (13子コメント)

Yes, 55% of Scots wanted to stay in the UK, while 66% of Scots want to stay in the EU. It's not inconceivable they'd get an independence majority if they're forced out of the EU due to English dominance.

[–]thebarbershopwindow 12ポイント13ポイント  (3子コメント)

I actually think in the event of a Leave vote, we'll see some "We can't leave until all four nations agree" type trick taking place.

Scotland would almost certainly hold a second immediate referendum - the Greens and the SNP have the votes to do it. Anger over England ruling over Scotland would almost certainly provide a Yes vote in this case.

[–]arturocarlos54 263ポイント264ポイント x5 (99子コメント)

Most of the replies here seem to be "Remain!". I usually wouldn't bother with replying to a thread like this but I feel like the leave side needs at least something said for them. Wall of text on the way, TLDR down below.

I want to leave, and on Thursday I will vote to leave. I am 20, middle class, live in central England. I am not a racist. I don't care about in-EU migration.

My stance is that simply put I like Europe, I like the idea of a European state and given the chance I would vote for a federalised EU with its own defense force, welfare, head of state, common language (Even if it was French, or even German), taxation and all the trappings of a nation-state (provided there was adequate "state" governments for the various nations, not unlike the US system).

But the EU as it stands now exists in a sort of political superstate (both a country and not, with and without a citizenry) where it passes laws without scrutiny or accountability. The correlation between the European election cycle and European law and policy is obscure in places and nonexistent in others. It both is and isn't a country with national interests.

The interests of Brussels do not correlate with the interests of the European people. It has its own set of interests and they consist of

  1. Preserve the EU
  2. Expand the influence of the European Government
  3. Coalesce the EU into a nation of some kind

On their own these interests are innocuous at first glance. Of course it is in their interests to survive and thrive and I already said that I don't mind a Federated European Union on paper. But in practice these interests put them at odds with the national governments of member states. Without a real democratic mandate, the EU is only indirectly interested in the welfare of EU citizens.

The interests above mean that the EU is incentivised to expand its sphere of influence into new countries instead of working with the countries it already includes. Instead of working with countries like (example) the UK it is in the EUs interest to bring more, potentially unsuitable countries into the European parliament so that it can edge out uncooperative nations on the debate floor. It is in the EU's interest to keep expanding rather as a means to achieve its goals, rather than simply to help its existing citizens.

What's more, the actual laws that get passed in Brussels are often drafted by lobbyists. That doesn't happen in WASHINGTON. The degree of sanctioned, polite corruption and cronyism in Brussels beggars belief. The second largest lobbying industry in the world is in Brussels, only narrowly beaten by DC, and even in DC a lobbyist can't actually draft a bill. British politics suffer from a pretty extreme "London Bubble" and it's true that civil servants and politics have a revolving door between them and big business, but sanctioned lobbying is very difficult and severely limited in scope. I value that. It is true that most politicians are Etonian-Oxford wankers but if you want to run for office in Britain you do not need to do the "fundraising" money-for-favours it's-bribery-but-noone-cares bullshit so prevalent elsewhere, in DC and Brussels.

Legality =/= morality and making bribery legal does not make it not bribery.

So, it should be clear that the "Federal European Union" I envisaged above would involve a great deal of reform towards transparency, democratic legitimacy and a real mandate to its citizens.

At this point I should say that I wish we didn't have this vote, and somebody else did. If another core member state had this kind of vote (France, Sweden, Germany, net contributors and economic cornerstones of Europe), I would be rubbing my hands with glee for months. At present we have a sort of dichotomy to face.

If we vote to leave, then it legitimises Greece's longstanding wish to leave. And that is dangerous. The potential for a cascading route away from the EU would be the only thing that could really scare Brussels into real reform of the highest level of government. Us leaving alone, maybe not, but the threat of two or three countries leaving in quick succession would undermine the European market confidence and force Brussels to action.

Long story short, if we vote to leave we may inadvertently create the kind of EU that I want to be a part of. But if we vote to stay, we will kill all chances of that ever happening.

As many US citizens are painfully aware, even when everyone knows the system is crooked, if the only thing that can change the crooked system is the system itself, it will never change. Every US citizen knows Super-PACs and "fundraisers" are undemocratic legalised bribes. Most of them know the electoral college is a stupid system. Most every Brit knows that our first past the post elections where a party with 36.9% of the vote gets 51% of the seats and a party with 12.7% of the votes gets 0 seats are FUCKING BONKERS.

But if it is up to the party that wins with just 36.9% to change the system, of course they aren't going to. Same for Brussels. Nothing will change without major external stimuli.

But Britain leaving would damage the EU. We have the largest financial centre outside of the NYSE, more oil than the rest of the EU combined, huge reserves of shale gas, a world famous culture of higher education and research sector (Oxford and Cambridge are household names around the world, while Brunel, the LSE and others are well known leaders in their fields). We manufacture almost as much stuff as Germany, consume almost as much as Americans do, and are the EU's primary gateway into both the Commonwealth (includes such tiny insignificant places as Canada, India, Pakistan, Australia, and totals 17% world GDP) and the USA. Almost all transatlantic internet traffic goes through Britain. Transatlantic flights. Major shipping ports. Aircraft carriers and power projection capability. Nuclear Deterrent.

The EU could survive us leaving, obviously, but it would feel us go. Britain is the fastest growing economy in the EU, and a significant net contributor to the EU project. So, I don't buy the "we don't care, we didn't like you guys anyway" and "it hurts you more than it hurts us" line that European institutions have taken in this debate. Many European economies are limping by at best, some exist on a knife edge. Those voices do have a role in this debate, but it should be conciliatory, not adversarial as it has been.

I also do not trust the mainstream British media on the subject. My perspective is that the remain campaign has, instead of trying to have an intellectually honest discussion, made a deliberate effort to muddy the waters as much as possible. Their strategy has seemed to be "make it as confusing and difficult as possible to form an informed opinion, stifle debate, the peasants don't know what they want" because they don't trust the public with this kind of intellectual decision. A side effect of the "London Bubble" where those who walk in the corridors of power think the people of "the North" (ie. not London) are lazy morons and most of the British people grow to resent politics and politicians because they so obviously avoid having an honest dialogue when it doesn't suit them.

It seems to me that the Remain campaign is more focused on confusing people, and bullying them (Osborne's punitive budget), because they know that scared people are more likely to vote for the status quo. The "Most Economists" "This Economist!" "But That Economist!" conversation seems like an exercise in this type of disinformation. It is reminiscent of KGB disinformation strategies. Instead of creating one big narrative that can be exposed, lie constantly, all the time, from different angles, say conflicting things, confuse people, and generally make it so that the average working guy who can only keep a passing eye on politics doesn't have the time to sift through to the truth. So he gives up and becomes disillusioned, and politicians get carte blanche.

Sure the Leave campaign has run a pretty lowest common denominator fear-mongering campaign but the only way to cut through the noise is to have a clear, simple message you can put forth loudly. The leave campaign has also by and large steered clear of ad hominem attacks, name calling ("Racist!" "Bigot!") and the relentless social signalling of the Remain campaign ("I'm so not racist, look how sorry I am for these people drowning!") which always struck me as an intellectually dishonest way to try to win an argument without finding an answer. Ultimately I would have loved a more factually based, simple, clear set of debates where intellectuals from both sides got a national stage, but instead we have things like Michael Gove taking questions from a crowd. Slimy, dishonest people who see this as a proxy to advance their careers are leading the national debate on this, as are newspaper editors (almost always left, hyper-progressive social signal experts who are just as trapped in the bubble as the politicians). Where are the informed, calm, mediated debates from people who don't necessarily have an agenda other than finding the right answers (academics)? Nowhere. Even the BBC has failed to realise its normal format for shows like Question Time is unsuitable, and people shouting over each other is why we have this mess in the first place.

TL;DR

I'm voting out because I don't want to be a part of the EU in it's current form. I don't think the current EU system is fit for purpose as it progresses towards federalisation and it needs major reform. The only kind of stimulus that would instigate that reform begins with a "Leave" vote. I don't buy the scare mongering on either side, and I accept that in the short run Britain will suffer to exit. It will not destroy us. We are wealthy and well connected even without the EU. Meanwhile the EU is corrupt, and economically flagging. And Brussels has a very weak mandate to the people of Europe.

Thanks for gold!

[–]Priamosish 27ポイント28ポイント  (1子コメント)

I don't agree with your opinion, but I have to say that I salute you for well formulating it.

[–]CashWank 6ポイント7ポイント  (12子コメント)

Few questions...

(1) How can you ignore the weight of economic opinion that argues that Britain will be severely damaged- eg: the IMF report that argues British wages will be depressed for generations if we choose to leave.

In many ways, this is not a question of whether we will survive, but a question of being worse off. Undoubtedly Britain will be fine if it votes to leave, but it will be worse off.

I frequently see the leave side argue that this weighted opinion is scare mongering, but failing to back up their own arguments with valid analysis. Eg a Tory minister on newsnight last week " lets choose to be optimistic"

(2) Surely it would make more sense to work for change from within the structure of the EU, than to hope for change from outside it?

[–]BadlyDrawnMoustache 60ポイント61ポイント  (6子コメント)

It is a shitshow, and there should never have been a referendum on this. The only reason David Cameron called one is because of stupid party politics, not for the good of the country or for democracy or anything like that.

Most people don't know even nearly enough about the EU, how it works, how it benefits us, its long term strategies etc. People genuinely think that the EU 'controls' the UK and that unelected officials in Brussels make up laws and force us to adopt them, which is just utterly untrue. There is so much misinformation that it's scary - democracy is obviously a great thing, but only when the electorate actually have the facts, when the media is unbiased etc. As it stands, people are voting totally blind and ignorant.

The EU does more for our country than our own government, particularly for the poorer areas. If the UK votes out, it means our government will lurch to the right. Even if you're not pro-EU, if you're not keen on the idea of a very right-wing era being ushered in, then vote remain.

[–]DownAndOut2010 460ポイント461ポイント  (86子コメント)

Voting Remain. I'm not convinced by Leave, and think that either result preserves the status quo (crappy government Vs crappy EU government) but a Brexit will be more disruptive.

[–]Lambchops_Legion 159ポイント160ポイント  (22子コメント)

Agreed, it's not Good vs Bad, it's Bad vs Worse, but at least remain won't set some scary precedents for the future of political unity in Europe.

The EU is a good idea executed poorly, and the best option would be to just restart and do this thing all over again, but once the first domino falls, it's going to be impossible to get a second attempt at that good idea.

For that is the most frustrating thing about the E.U.: Nobody ever seems to acknowledge or learn from mistakes. If there’s any soul-searching in Brussels or Berlin about Europe’s terrible economic performance since 2008, it’s very hard to find. And I feel some sympathy with Britons who just don’t want to be tied to a system that offers so little accountability, even if leaving is economically costly.

The question, however, is whether a British vote to leave would make anything better. It could serve as a salutary shock that finally jolts European elites out of their complacency and leads to reform. But I fear that it would actually make things worse. The E.U.’s failures have produced a frightening rise in reactionary, racist nationalism — but Brexit would, all too probably, empower those forces even more, both in Britain and all across the Continent.

Obviously I could be wrong about these political consequences. But it’s also possible that my despair over European reform is exaggerated. And here’s the thing: As Oxford’s Simon Wren-Lewis points out, Britain will still have the option to leave the E.U. someday if it votes Remain now, but Leave will be effectively irreversible. You have to be really, really sure that Europe is unfixable to support Brexit.

So I’d vote Remain. There would be no joy in that vote. But a choice must be made, and that’s where I’d come down.

Fear, Loathing, and Brexit

[–]Halyon 141ポイント142ポイント  (27子コメント)

Hijacking this to agree with you and get this message up a little further. If you're kinda for remain but aren't really bothered about it, I urge you to vote on Thursday. This will be a very close vote either way, and it would be a shame to let the vocal (semi)-minority dictate the future of our nation. You may not be interested in politics (I'm not particularly enthralled myself either), but this transcends the usual run-of-the-mill general election by a mile. Leaving the EU is permanent (well, not technically but we'd never be in the EU "as we know it" - we are in such a special position already).

[–]ThunderousOrgasm 114ポイント115ポイント  (16子コメント)

I'm a brexiter, yet I agree with you 100%. If you have even a slight edge towards remain, bloody vote! This vote is too important for apathy. We all need to spend our belief at the ballot box, we are making a decision that our children and grandchildren have to live with.

[–]iwillfuckingbiteyou 74ポイント75ポイント  (10子コメント)

we are making a decision that our children and grandchildren have to live with.

More immediately, we are making a decision that we have to live with for the rest of our lives. Those of us who graduated in the midst of recession and subsequent austerity, whose paths are only just beginning to smooth out as our industries start to recover... Brexit will shaft us. I want some stability in my life, not a run on the pound, possibly another GEC, lost European funding, increased cost of living once import/export duty kicks in, plus years of insecurity as we find out the hard way what it's like to be a small country negotiating with a power bloc.

[–]Barely_Know 6ポイント7ポイント  (9子コメント)

3 Power blocs. China, the US and the EU.There is quite a bit of work in progress with regard to China and the US at the EU level at the moment. There are also commonwealth nations with which the UK will have to negotiate in order to take advantage of its newfound sovereignety (that is reduce the negative economic effects of leaving the EU).

[–]Bugsmoke 10ポイント11ポイント  (2子コメント)

Crappy government wouldn't change, but I can't believe people do not realise it would most likely mean replacing Cameron with Johnson if we left. There's a blatant lesser of two evils there..

[–]shagwan 24ポイント25ポイント  (12子コメント)

I'm voting leave. As I see it my civil liberties are undemocratically fucked two fold currently, I have the EU passing legislation I cannot refute and I have HM Civil Service passing legislation I cannot refute, I'd rather decrease the authoritative powers that be into a smaller cluster, rather than creating Yugoslavia 2.0. Am I frightened of the consequences of giving complete control to the fucktards that govern Britain? Yes I am. Am I worried about initial repercussions to the economy? Yes I am. But as it stands, what do we aspire to become within the EU? Other countries like Switzerland and Norway have a GDP twice as high. Perhaps I'm being optimistic but Britain has a trade surplus in almost every service sector except tourism, we have the ability to do well outside of the EU and smash the glass ceiling that is the EU trading bloc. We have the potential, we are the world’s fifth largest economy and fourth largest military power. One of only five countries with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. The WTO has driven down trade tariffs and we'll be afforded the opportunity to import far cheaper without European trade quotas cock blocking us and gain far more access to international markets. In regards to immigration, it's not something the fearmongers have frightened me with, but I CAN see it pragmatically. The housing crisis (mostly private but some social) is unable to sustain the type of numbers we are receiving now without an influx from newly registered EU countries. I'm by no means a British nationalist, I just think we can emulate other non EU European countries to increase our standard of living.

[–]JulieStrike2991 288ポイント289ポイント  (7子コメント)

Voting to stay, not least because it makes the most sense politically, economically and otherwise, but also because the leave campaign seems to be pointing a lot of fingers without really offering solutions. It's important to know what you stand for, not just what you stand against.

Many British ties to European have been renegotiated anyway, so a large part of problems those in favour of Brexit seem to point out will be resolved through that. Much of the rest of their problems are issues like UK nationals living abroad 'draining' health care resources, which, to me, doesn't really have too much to do with whether or not Britain is part of the EU.

[–]Romulus_Novus 19ポイント20ポイント  (3子コメント)

I think part of the problem as well is that Leave is making promises but, fundamentally, they aren't the government - they don't have the power to implement any of the changes that they are suggesting

It's likely that, in the event of a Leave vote, that Cameron would be ousted and Gove/Johnson would take over, but even if they tried to keep their promises I don't see how they could at this point -they've promised too much

[–]QuietDove 218ポイント219ポイント  (10子コメント)

I'm voting remain but this whole referendum has been disgusting. Scaremongering on both sides, ludicrous promises and divisive debating. The country is going to be changed whatever the result, and it will be changed for the worse.

A whole campaign based on a range of issues is being decided by just one, immigration. Leave just dismissing all of the economic arguments as if they're false is incredibly infuriating.

[–]rambaroo 16ポイント17ポイント  (2子コメント)

I completely agree on the debate. Everyone is asking and answering the wrong questions. The remain campaign has made no case for staying other than scaring the shit out of everyone with fiddled numbers.

The Leave campaign has basically amounted to look scary foreigners and all the issues we will fix later.

This election comes down to ideology rather than reasoned debate

[–]Shalman3ser 75ポイント76ポイント  (7子コメント)

The fact we're even having a referendum at all is political irresponsibility of the worst kind.

The fact Dave and George had to promise it to stave off the political insurrection of their own party tells you more about the state of UK politics than any EU referendum might.