Why are Fewer People Getting Married?

If the trends continue, then the growing number of single people will presumably begin to exert political pressure to eliminate the laws that favor and reward marriage and implicitly discriminate against them.

June kicks off the U.S. wedding season. Whether you love nuptials or hate them, an astounding trend is occurring: fewer couples are tying the knot.

The number of U.S. marriage ceremonies peaked in the early 1980s, when almost 2.5 million marriages were recorded each year. Since then, however, the total number of people getting married has fallen steadily. Now only about two million marriages happen a year, a drop of almost half a million from their peak.

As a result, barely more than half of adults in the U.S. say they’re living with a spouse. It is the lowest share on record, and down from 70 percent in 1967.

What’s behind this trend? Is marriage becoming obsolete? Why should we care?

Marriage rates are dropping too

The drop in marriages is even more dramatic when the rapid growth in the U.S. population is taken into account. In fact, the marriage rate is the lowest in at least 150 years.

The figure below shows the number of marriages per 1,000 people for the last century and ahalf. It does not matter if it is a person’s first, second or even third marriage. The rate simply tracks the number of weddings that occurred adjusted by the population.

In the late 1800s, about nine out of every 1,000 people got married each year. After rising in the early 1900s through World War I, the marriage rate plummeted during the Great Depression, when fewer people were able to afford starting a family. The rate shot up again at the end of World War II as servicemen returned home, eager to get hitched and have babies.

But since the early 1980s, the marriage rate has steadily dropped until it leveled off in 2009 at about seven per 1,000.

A global trend

It’s not just the U.S. where this is happening.

The United Nations gathered data for roughly 100 countries, showing how marriage rates changed from 1970 to 2005. Marriage rates fell in four-fifths of them.

Australia’s marriage rate, for example, fell from 9.3 marriages per 1,000 people in 1970 to 5.6 in 2005. Egypt’s declined from 9.3 to 7.2. In Poland, it dropped from 8.6 to 6.5.

The drop occurred in all types of countries, poor and rich. And it clearly wasn’t based on geography, since one of the biggest declines occurred in Cuba (13.4 to 5), while one of the biggest increases occurred in the neighboring island of Jamaica (4.9 to 8.7).

Among countries that experienced a reduction, the average rate fell from 8.2 marriages per 1,000 to just 5.2, which is an even lower rate than what the U.S. is now experiencing.

Why has the drop occurred?

The range of culprits is quite large.

Some blame widening U.S. income and wealth inequality. Others point the finger at the fall in religious adherence or cite the increase in education and income of women, making women choosier about whom to marry. Still others focus on rising student debt and rising housing costs, forcing people to put off marriage. Finally some believe marriage is simply an old, outdated tradition that is no longer necessary.

But given that this is a trend happening across the globe in a wide variety of countries with very different income, religious adherence, education and social factors, it’s hard to pin the blame on just a single culprit.

Don’t blame the government

Moreover, this drop in marriages is not occurring because of adverse legal or public policy changes. Governments across the globe continue to provide incentives and legal protections that encourage marriage.

For example, the U.S. federal government has over 1,000 laws that make special adjustments based on marital status. Many of these adjustments allow married couples to get preferential tax treatment and more retirement benefits, and bypass inheritance laws.

Moreover, government legalization of same-sex marriages around the world has boosted the number of individuals able to enter into legally sanctioned unions.

While legalizing same-sex marriages has boosted the number of marriages, this increase has not been enough to reverse the declining trend.

Is it a switch to cohabiting?

Another popular explanation for why fewer people are getting married is that more couples prefer to live together informally, known as cohabitation.

It is true that the percentage of people living with a partner instead of marrying has risen over time. In 1970 just half-of-one-percent of all adults were cohabiting in the U.S. Today the figure is 7.5 percent.

However, this trend fails to explain the whole story of falling marriage rates. Even when we combine the share of adults who are married with those who are cohabiting, the picture still reveals a strong downward trend. In the late 1960s, over 70 percent of all U.S. adults were either married or cohabiting. The most recent data show less than 60 percent of adults are living together in either a marriage or cohabiting relationship.

This means over time, a smaller percentage of people are living as a couple. The number of people living alone, without a spouse, partner, children or roommates has almost doubled. The number of people living by themselves in the U.S. was less than 8 percent in the late 1960s. Today’s it’s almost 15 percent.

Costs and benefits of marriage

So why have marriage rates declined around the world, while the number of people living on their own has exploded? In my mind, the simple answer is that for more people, the current costs of marriage outweigh the benefits.

The benefits of marriage are numerous and well-known. Researchers have linked marriage to better outcomes for children, less crime, an increase in longevity and happier lives, among many factors. My own research revealed that marriage is associated with more wealth.

Nevertheless, as Gary Becker pointed out in his widely used theory of marriage, these benefits don’t come for free. Marriage is hard work. Living with someone means taking into account another person’s feelings, moods, needs and desires instead of focusing just on your own. This extra work has large time, emotional and financial costs.

While decades ago many people believed the benefits of marriage outweighed these costs, the data around the world are clearly showing that more people are viewing the benefits of being married, or even cohabiting, as much smaller than the costs.

Why do we care?

As the wedding season takes hold, I have already been invited to a few nuptials, so it is clear marriage is not actually becoming obsolete.

Society today is geared toward couples. However, if the trends continue, then the growing number of single people will presumably begin to exert political pressure to eliminate the laws that favor and reward marriage and implicitly discriminate against them.

The question is: how large will this policy shift be and how soon until it occurs?

Originally Published on TheConversation.com

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Comments

  1. John Anderson says:

    “cite the increase in education and income of women, making women choosier about whom to marry.”

    Interesting way of phrasing women have no interest in supporting a man financially, which is what it comes down to. I wonder if common law marriage is tracked and how it affects the decision of people who choose to not marry, but would otherwise cohabit.

  2. John Anderson says:

    It’s not just that, but in economically developed countries, population growth is in decline.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/11414064/How-Europe-is-slowly-dying-despite-an-increasing-world-population.html

    http://www.techinsider.io/do-it-for-denmark-ad-campaign-to-encourage-pregnancy-2015-10

    Heck, in Japan people aren’t even having sex and and many don’t have a desire to.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/20/young-people-japan-stopped-having-sex

    I also heard the the U.S. population growth is largely die to immigrants and immigration. If marriage is about starting families. People at least in first world economies don’t really want to start them. If you think it’s bad now, wait for the sexbots.

  3. OirishM says:

    Society today is geared toward couples. However, if the trends continue, then the growing number of single people will presumably begin to exert political pressure to eliminate the laws that favor and reward marriage and implicitly discriminate against them.

    lolwhat

    So removing a bunch of arbitrary benefits handed to married couples will then lead to discrimination?

    Why should those benefits even exist? Surely by existing, it is singletons are being discriminated against?

    This piece barely goes into any reason why these benefits *should* exist and seems to be implying that people today aren’t marrying because they aren’t able to share their emotional space with someone else. Tosh.

  4. DJ and Jules

    And what about this hypotheses that this ?
    Study find that use of pornography makes marriage unappealing to men.
    I think it may be some truth in that,
    http://www.westernjournalism.com/shocking-new-study-finds-link-pornography-declining-marriage-rates/

    • Jonathan G says:

      Let’s follow the chain of logic: If easy access to pornography now allows men access to sexual gratification without a partner, and consequently they opt out of marriage, that must mean that the promise of sexual gratification was the primary incentive to marry. They were NOT getting the love, respect, emotional support, security and belonging that marriage supposedly brings. But in marriage, men are still expected to be the providers: financially (by and large it’s still true), and of love, respect, emotional support, security and belonging. And there’s a very strong possibility that he’ll have to continue to be the financial provider after she’s decided to end the marriage.

      Thus, pornography has offered men a different, better option to escape from the bad deal of their oppressive gender role. In exchange for lower quality of sexual gratification, they can choose to shuck off the burden of providing (without reciprocity), and to live his life more on his own terms. That sounds familiar.

      It sounds like men’s liberation.

      • Jonathan G
        Yes the promise of sexual gratification was and is some men the primary incentive for marriage. You will find the same all over the world I think, wether they have on wife or several …
        Times are changing .
        Will the end of marriage be the end of family or will the institution of family continue or be replaced by something totally new?
        Where I live family is not that mportant any longer, nor is religion. The majority of young people do not get married but cohabite , with a variety of contracts that replaced the marriage contract,even though women still get more protection,rights and security with a marriage contract lots choose cohabitation and their own contracts.
        Community , neighbors, networks of different kinds, the persons you work together with every day seems to matter far more than family.
        To have a good family is fantastic I am sure , but fortunately there are other other alternatives.

        • @KIM,

          “To have a good family is fantastic I am sure , but fortunately there are other other alternatives.”

          Yes, the alternatives are what men are seeking. But, porn and wanking are not good alternatives. Just another form of self destructive behavior.

    • John Anderson says:

      @ KIM

      There may be some truth to that. If marriage is the goal, we have to ask why. If it’s simply population growth for economic viability (some one had calculated the number of people needing to work to support a retired person, but I don’t remember the number), couldn’t robots and animation address a lot of that? Maybe marriage itself is unnecessary.

      If men are not getting married, I’d suspect that it’s because it doesn’t support their self interest. They see little return on investment or even a negative return. The solution would be to create an environment where men see a benefit to getting married. Shaming them by telling them they are fulfilling their social obligation won’t work especially when they also get signals that women and families don’t actually need them.

      Women also have a part to play in this. I’ve been of the opinion that men would be a lot less wary of relationships if women took on more of the initial risk (emotional, financial, etc.). For myself, I know I’d be a lot more willing to wait and see where a relationship goes if I wasn’t paying for the dates. I suspect that factors into women’s thinking and that’s why you have so many complain that men rush sex. It’s not like she isn’t getting free meals, free shows, etc. anyway.

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