Senate - New South Wales

Current Senators

(*) Notes on Senators

Liberal Bill Heffernan is not contesting the 2016 election. Jenny McAllister was appointed to a casual vacancy in May 2015 following the resignation of John Faulkner. Deborah O'Neill was appointed in November 2013, and again in July 2014, to fill casual vacancies created by the resignation of Bob Carr. Labor Senator Sam Dastyari was appointed to a casual vacancy in August 2013 following the resignation of Matt Thistlethwaite.

Prospects

Possible outcome: Certain seats Coalition 5, Labor 4, Greens 1. One of the two remaining seats will be fought between the fifth Labor and second Green candidates, with history favouring Labor. The final seat is likely to be won by a party of the right, either the Coalition winning a sixth seat with less than a quota on preferences, or a minor party winning on Coalition preferences.

Analysis: The higher quota that applies to win six seats at a double dissolution makes it difficult for the Coalition to retain the six Senate seats it currently holds. Unless the Coalition can get its first preference vote above 42%, it will be reduced to five seats. History shows how hard it will be for the Coalition to retain six seats.

The Coalition's normal Senate first preference vote is around 40%. Since 1984 the lowest Coalition vote was 34.3% in 2013 when voters were clearly confused by the presence of the Liberal Democrats in column A of the ballot paper. Only three times in the last thirty years has the Coalition reached 5.4 quotas (41.4%). These were 5.4 quotas in 1996 on John Howard's election to office, and John Howard's two increased majority re-elections in 2001 (41.8% or 5.43 quotas) and in 2004 (44.1% or 5.74 quotas).

You would expect the Coalition vote to improve on its 2013 result of 34.3%, but getting to a level where it can hope to re-elect its six members will be tough. Preferences with the Christian Democrats and other conservative minor parties may be important in either delivering either a sixth Coalition seat on less than a quota, or Coalition preferences could deliver a seat to the Christian Democrats. The Christian Democrats polled 1.7% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2010, but the party has polled better at NSW Legislative Council elections where there are fewer columns on the ballot paper. Another minor party to watch with a good record of winning election to the Legislative Council is the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party, who polled 1.3% on the giant 2013 Senate ballot paper, and 2.3% in 2010.

Labor's NSW vote used to be higher than the Coalition's, but has slipped in recent years. It seems certain that Labor's vote will rebound from its 31.6% (4.1 quotas) in 2013. Only in 2013 and 2001 has Labor's vote fallen short of 4.5 quotas, so any return to a more normal level of Labor voting would deliver the party five Senate seats.

The Greens would be certain of returning one Senator, but the party's highest vote in the past was 10.7% (1.39 quotas) in 2010. The most likely scenario for the election is that Labor will win four seats, the Greens one, and the two parties will then be competing for the final 'left' seat in the contest with history suggesting Labor has the better prospects.

Past Senate Elections - Seats Won by Party