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Last call. (imgur.com)

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[–]cryptocomicon[S] [スコア非表示]  (18子コメント)

Comparing now with the last huge run up in price, also associated with the halvening I believe.

Bitcoin is a fairly natural market that has clear fractal patterns. Not a manipulated shitshow like gold or the sp500.

[–]onetrickwolf [スコア非表示]  (4子コメント)

Bitcoin is a fairly natural market that has clear fractal patterns. Not a manipulated shitshow like gold or the sp500.

This is complete bullshit. It is manipulated all the time and "natural market" and "fractal patterns" are completely bogus terminology.

I love Bitcoin and think the price will go up, but I hate all the fucking sofa economists and 16 year old econ kids here posting graphs and every week pointing out a meaningless pattern as some sort of prediction.

You could take an end goal to absolutely any scenario and find a bullshit pattern "supporting" that prediction.

[–]trem0lo [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

There is a larger than normal amateur element in the Bitcoin market, meaning the price tends to trend longer and correct harder than in mature markets, like the S&P.

[–]10mmauto [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

This isn't complete bullshit at all. Bitcoin trades on multiple exchanges in many Countries. It's also easy to "take delivery" of your holdings by moving it to a wallet outside of the exchange where you purchased it.

When you trade precious metals, the major markets don't allow you to easily take delivery of the physical asset, and the price is literally fixed every morning by major banks. It's not a conspiracy theory that these banks collude to manipulate the price of gold and keep it artificially low, it's been proven in court, DB broke from the pack and settled.

Here's a great video from Bloomberg on what's happening.

Being able to take delivery of bitcoin quickly makes it impossible to rig prices as is done with gold and silver. If bitcoin ever grows to a market cap where it actually threatens fiat currency, expect the delivery of the asset to become heavily restricted and regulated, and expect the trading of paper versions of bitcoin like GBTC or the Winklevii's vapor-ETF to become easier and tax favorable vs. options to take delivery of bitcoin directly.

[–]helenofcanadaredditor for 24 days [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

the whole point is you can take delivery whenever you want and cant be stopped

[–]IamCarbonMan [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

You are quite correct here. Bitcoin is "natural" in that it follows very typical economic equations, unlike some abstract currencies. "Fractal patterns" apply only so long as those who have the ability to manipulate the variables in those equations are comfortable with leaving them at the "natural" state- that is, the state that is most balanced. The graph will tend to represent statistical averages taken over all active members the market, but it can be heavily influenced by outliers with large control over the exchange. And, unlike most statistical averages, the subjects of the calculation are intelligent, and have a stage in the outcome.

[–]tryn2hlp [スコア非表示]  (4子コメント)

I hate to break it to you guys, but there's rampant manipulation on the bitcoin exchanges, assuming your definition includes "whales" who engage in wash trades to manipulate volume metrics and pump and dump to induce smaller traders to enter/exit positions, etc. There are a small number of players with huge holdings who take advantage of their size given the lack of liquidity, and it's clear that's what sometimes happens if you watch the intraday candles.

It's a largely unregulated market. So it's to be expected. And I suppose there are forms of systemic manipulation on the large securities exchanges (e.g., HFT, market maker manipulation, etc.) that don't yet take place on the bitcoin exchanges.

[–]klondike_barz [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

whales are ocean creatures, ergo the fractal nature of bitcoin says we leave the ocean and eventually visit the moon

just draw a vertical line and TA is complete

[–]jwBTC [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

moon
|
|
|
whale

I think you might be onto something!

[–]With_a_G [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Can you simplify that for all the 16-year-old couch economists?

[–]charltonh [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

Temporary manipulation on crypto-exchanges by those with deep pockets who risk their capital in doing so is one thing.

Private exchanges posing as public whose computers merely move the price around to take everyone's money without regard to supply and demand (done on another set of books) is something else entirely and what makes up most of our financial system today. Complete fraud. And so technical (or fundamental) analysis no longer works in most mainstream markets, which is the reason for your bias against it (understandable, but people used to be able to trade for a living).

[–]b_lumenkraft [スコア非表示]  (3子コメント)

clear fractal patterns

Any proof on this?

[–]Sugar_Daddy_Peter [スコア非表示]  (3子コメント)

They can't manipulate it because they're afraid to touch it. It's awesome. It's no wonder they focus on manipulating the community.

[–]cryptocomicon[S] [スコア非表示]  (2子コメント)

The Bitcoin community understands that you have to take delivery. The failure of so many exchanges have driven this point home.

Not taking delivery is what allows manipulation of other markets.

[–]StoryBit [スコア非表示]  (1子コメント)

"to take delivery" ?

[–]45sbvad [スコア非表示]  (0子コメント)

To store your BTC on your own wallet, not an exchange hosted wallet. It is easy to run fractional reserve if your clients keep all their funds with you. Only a small % will realistically want to access their funds at any given time, so why not profit in the time between? At least that is how a lot of institutions seem to think.