NeoGAF

Nirolak · 04:27 PM

I'm not sure if the 2x is supposed to be literal or not or just an illustration, but they note both were below expectations.

Originally Posted by Kotaku UK

Besides the technical problems with Windows 10, though, Lionhead’s bigger problem was that for the entirety of Fable Legends’ development cycle, the potential audience for the game was shrinking. Xbox One sales were falling far short of projections. Windows 10 installs, too, were nowhere near what Microsoft had planned. The scale just wasn’t there. And for a free-to-play game, scale is everything.

“Let’s be honest – we make our projections based on a series of assumptions,” reflects a former employee who worked closely with Microsoft. “There are supposed to be 2x as many Xboxes out there as there are right now. There are supposed to be 2x as many Windows 10 installs as there currently are. So now, when we look at how much money Legends could make in the free-to-play universe, you have to halve it. Because we can only reach half the audience that was projected.”

One source reckons that the final decision was probably made about a week before, as Microsoft started doing its fiscal planning, deciding what products and studios to fund and not. Lionhead was not the only first-party studio that was having problems. Something had to give.

“I reckon [Phil Spencer] feels bad about Lionhead, but I think for him, he has to run all of Microsoft Studios as a business,” they say. “First-party studios isn’t doing so well. Halo 5 is a big miss, versus projections. Minecraft is a big miss, versus projections. Compared to either one of those, Lionhead is practically a rounding error. But I think if your division is under-performing, you have to go to your boss with something on the altar.”

Source: http://www.kotaku.co.uk/2016/06/09/h...-down-lionhead

Mass Effect · (Yesterday, 04:21 PM)

This would explain Microsoft's extremely aggressive W10 push lately.

Nightengale · (Yesterday, 04:21 PM)

Halo 5 and Minecraft were also below expectations.

wapplew · (Yesterday, 04:22 PM)

250-300m install base still not enough? That's like 8 times PS4 install base.

brandonh83 · (Yesterday, 04:22 PM)

They're getting ready for that scorpion sting.

Nightengale · (Yesterday, 04:23 PM)

Originally Posted by wapplew

250-300m install base still not enough? That's like 8 times PS4 install base.

How many W10 PC can run a graphically intensive game?

Apexhell · (Yesterday, 04:23 PM)

win 10 installs fell short from projection ? that doesn't sound right unless they had unrealistic projections.

WadeitOut · (Yesterday, 04:24 PM)

Fable Legends was a turd of a game. The excuses aren't necessary. Lion head hasn't produced anything of quality in a long time so they got dropped. The install base wasn't going to save the game from a quality stand point.

Ghost Slayer · (Yesterday, 04:24 PM)

Originally Posted by wapplew

250-300m install base still not enough? That's like 8 times PS4 install base.

They must have hired SE sales analysis when they had RoTR exclusive deal

Toki767 · (Yesterday, 04:24 PM)

When they say there's supposed to be 2x as many Xbox Ones out there right now, I'm guessing they're probably implying PS4 has 2x as many consoles sold?

Jimmyfenix · (Yesterday, 04:24 PM)

Yeah the PR for Halo 5 just stopped after release

alr1ght · (Yesterday, 04:25 PM)

Probably people using the W10 store, which is probably like 5% (gamers) of the install base.

Bitch Pudding · (Yesterday, 04:25 PM)

That's grist on the mill of people who think XBOX One is on track for a 40mn LT sales.

gatti-man · (Yesterday, 04:25 PM)

Originally Posted by brandonh83

They're getting ready for that scorpion sting.

I think this is why Scorpio is rumored to be so powerful. Trying to copy that x360 Magic. What they don't realize is it was half hardware half Gears of war/Halo being amazing.

WadeitOut · (Yesterday, 04:25 PM)

Originally Posted by Nightengale

How many W10 PC can run a graphically intensive game?

I can't imagine they have the data to where this is what they are referring to.

Ghost Slayer · (Yesterday, 04:25 PM)

Originally Posted by Jimmyfenix

Yeah the PR for Halo 5 just stopped after release

MAU is better though. All hail the MAU

DrArchon · (Yesterday, 04:26 PM)

I'm impressed that Microsoft managed to fuck up Windows 10 so hard that they were giving it away for free and it still under-performed. That's kinda embarrassing.

Also shows why Microsoft is so adamant about combining W10 and XBO development. Why develop for two underperforming markets when you can develop for one larger market?

Nirolak · (Yesterday, 04:26 PM)

I added in the Halo 5 and Minecraft notes.

Chris1 · (Yesterday, 04:26 PM)

Originally Posted by Nightengale

Halo 5 and Minecraft were also below expectations.

Just read that part, maybe new thread worthy?

“I reckon [Phil Spencer] feels bad about Lionhead, but I think for him, he has to run all of Microsoft Studios as a business,” they say. “First-party studios isn’t doing so well. Halo 5 is a big miss, versus projections. Minecraft is a big miss, versus projections. Compared to either one of those, Lionhead is practically a rounding error. But I think if your division is under-performing, you have to go to your boss with something on the altar.”

Halo was obvious but Minecraft is a surprise... their expectations must have been ridiculously high considering it's still selling loads. But I doubt they're worried about Minecraft all they have to do is pop out a sequel and rake in the cash.

James Scott · (Yesterday, 04:26 PM)

Weren't they boasting massive W10 installs?
I get that f2p is very difficult without a massive audience, but I'm not sure how MS could expect 2x as much and is cancelling it and shutting down one of their biggest studios really the right way to handle exaggerated expectations?

gofreak · (Yesterday, 04:26 PM)

If both have disappointed so much it might explain the push to consolidate them under one banner, so they can potentially help each other out. Or kill each other. I guess we'll see how it goes for them, although I guess they feel they can't do much worse.

KinofChaos · (Yesterday, 04:27 PM)

Originally Posted by wapplew

250-300m install base still not enough? That's like 8 times PS4 install base.

LOL...it doesn't work that way.

AJLma · (Yesterday, 04:27 PM)

Microsoft shouldn't have tried to screw people over with it's half-baked budget console.

Sangetsu-II · (Yesterday, 04:28 PM)

Originally Posted by Apexhell

win 10 installs fell short from projection ? that doesn't sound right unless they had unrealistic projections.

Well what else would you project for a free OS install. If I where them I would have projected something like 75% of PC's would upgrade. Currently I don't think 50% of PC's have upgrade because Win7 is beast and people got used to Win8 and they don't want to change.

Cow Goes Moo · (Yesterday, 04:28 PM)

damn i thought phil harrison would've been great for xbox's eu branch

Something else happened in 2012: former Sony executive Phil Harrison joined Microsoft as corporate vice president in charge of its European game development efforts. Harrison has a long history in the games industry – he is a part of the story of a great many high-profile games of the last two decades – and he had a very clear vision for where games were going. Phil passionately believed in games-as-service: in other words, long-tail online games that evolved with their player bases, and were probably free-to-play. This belief would be what determined Lionhead’s direction (and, judging by Sea of Thieves, Rare’s too)...
Phil Harrison’s vision for all of his studios in Europe was now for service-based games. That’s what he thought was the future of games. He didn’t want to make anything that was a £50 box, fire and forget. He wanted long tails of revenue, even if there was a smaller up-front burst of revenue.”

“Harrison had a vision for the future where everything was games as a service,” says another. “I think many parts of Microsoft really struggled with that approach, despite the fact that Windows 10 was going in that direction. Harrison absolutely did not want a boxed product.”

Given Harrison’s background, this approach was understandable. Between his stints at Microsoft and Sony, he had been special advisor for a company called London Venture Partners, which invested in new business models in the gaming world and counted Supercell as one of its early seed investments. He had seen, close-up, how successful games-as-service could be. Lionhead had to come up with something that would fit the model.

looks like he was too enamored with mobile's games success at the time

WadeitOut · (Yesterday, 04:28 PM)

Originally Posted by KinofChaos

LOL...it doesn't work that way.

Either does saying Lionhead died because of some sort of install base number. I get that they are pissed and trying to defend themselves, but they made an awful game.

Jebusman · (Yesterday, 04:28 PM)

Originally Posted by wapplew

250-300m install base still not enough? That's like 8 times PS4 install base.

I mean, I can only assume this was a joking comment, but incase it's not, I'm sure they have stats on exactly how large of their user segment is

A. Capable of playing games
B. WILLING to play games

If you did a Venn diagram of "Windows 10 users who meet system requirements, fans of fable, fans of f2p games and people willing to use the windows 10 store", the overlap between all those would be impossibly small.

Zomba13 · (Yesterday, 04:28 PM)

Next Windows 10 update prompt:

"Windows 10 is coming. You can't stop it. Accept it. Welcome Windows 10 into your PC. Your files are right where you left them." x*

(Ok) (Yes)

*Clicking the x welcomes Windows 10 into your hard drive.

Apexhell · (Yesterday, 04:28 PM)

windows store being below projections makes a ton of sense.

its games for windows live 2.0 under a new name.

Toadthemushroom · (Yesterday, 04:28 PM)

It must be really tough making a big budget game like this in the games-as-a-service mold, and it just shows how fast the industry can change, both as a whole and also around yourself.

By the time a game like this has been finished, 3-4 years after its conception, so much has changed, and reality doesn't match up with expectations. Shame.

Welfare · (Yesterday, 04:28 PM)

Originally Posted by Toki767

When they say there's supposed to be 2x as many Xbox Ones out there right now, I'm guessing they're probably implying PS4 has 2x as many consoles sold?

Or they thought they would be doing much better by now compared to reality. This must've been something from pre launch or slightly after it or else that is some Nintendo-esque Wii U bullish projections.

Gestault · (Yesterday, 04:29 PM)

I'm betting the Win10 install expectations is referring to the Windows 10 Store specifically. I would be so aggravated working on something that long and having marketing/management strategies fall through. It's not like a dev can control that.

Primethius · (Yesterday, 04:29 PM)

Practically a rounding error? Ouch.

CopperPuppy · (Yesterday, 04:29 PM)

How the hell did Minecraft underperform?

What am I missing here?

ethomaz · 04:31 PM

I guess that was a bit obvious at least for the Xbone case.

It is possible tracking below 360 right now and the gap will increase because Xbone's peak happened last year and 360 just started to grow after the 3rd year.

And the target for Halo 5 was really missed.

I'm surprised about Minecraft but thinking about how much they paid then I guess MS expected way more than what they are selling to cover investments.

SPEA · (Yesterday, 04:29 PM)

Minecraft is a big miss?

Huh? That can't be right.

Moosichu · (Yesterday, 04:29 PM)

Originally Posted by Chris1

Just read that part, maybe new thread worthy?

Halo was obvious but Minecraft is a surprise... their expectations must have been ridiculously high considering it's still selling loads. But I doubt they're worried about Minecraft all they have to do is pop out a sequel and rake in the cash.

It tells you something about bloated expectations when the best selling game of all time is 'below expectations'.

Nirolak · (Yesterday, 04:29 PM)

Originally Posted by Cow Goes Moo

damn i thought phil harrison would've been great for xbox's eu branch

looks like he was too enamored with mobile's games success at the time

Honestly, given what's selling today, I don't think he was really wrong.

The main miss he made is that on consoles, you sell a $60 game, and then you flood people with endless DLC and/or microtransactions along with new content for years.

shoreu · (Yesterday, 04:29 PM)

Originally Posted by WadeitOut

Fable Legends was a turd of a game. The excuses aren't necessary. Lion head hasn't produced anything of quality in a long time so they got dropped. The install base wasn't going to save the game from a quality stand point.

False

gatti-man · (Yesterday, 04:29 PM)

Originally Posted by DrArchon

I'm impressed that Microsoft managed to fuck up Windows 10 so hard that they were giving it away for free and it still under-performed. That's kinda embarrassing.

Also shows why Microsoft is so adamant about combining W10 and XBO development. Why develop for two underperforming markets when you can develop for one larger market?

People need a why. Why upgrade if my current OS does everything I need? Why relearn where everything is and the GUI? It's a pain and not worth it to a ton of the user base. That's not counting businesses using legacy software. Microsoft really needs a why for its products.

rrc1594 · (Yesterday, 04:29 PM)

LMAO this isn't news MS wants out there a week before E3

On Demand · (Yesterday, 04:30 PM)

Originally Posted by wapplew

250-300m install base still not enough? That's like 8 times PS4 install base.

You're on a roll, keep going.

Ricky Ricardo · (Yesterday, 04:30 PM)

This entire thing says more to me about Microsoft's projections than anything else.

Guymelef · (Yesterday, 04:30 PM)

Windows 10 Store is going to be the next Windows Mobile.
Nobody cares about it.

Nightengale · (Yesterday, 04:30 PM)

Originally Posted by Cow Goes Moo

damn i thought phil harrison would've been great for xbox's eu branch

looks like he was too enamored with mobile's games success at the time

He's always been that person, even at Sony.

The biggest things attributed to Harrison at Sony were Singstar & Sony London's more casual output like Buzz. He's always been more a services-kind person, especially with him championing Home.

zma1013 · (Yesterday, 04:30 PM)

Originally Posted by Zomba13

Next Windows 10 update prompt:

"Windows 10 is coming. You can't stop it. Accept it. Welcome Windows 10 into your PC. Your files are right where you left them... maybe... we don't know... subscribe to our Cloud data backup service you Windows 7 peasants."

I fix

hemo memo · 04:34 PM

Minecraft is a big miss, versus projections.

Wow.. Minecraft and miss in the same sentence.

Lasthope106 · (Yesterday, 04:31 PM)

Originally Posted by AJLma

Microsoft shouldn't have tried to screw people over with it's half-baked budget console.

That blame rest entirely upon Don Matrick. I hope he is happy having basically destroyed all the progress Microsoft made with the 360. I would have never expected myself to go Sony, and I'm still bitter at them about the Dreamcast. But Sony simply has the best videogame consoles on the market right now.

ebullientprism · (Yesterday, 04:31 PM)

What caused Halo 5 to be a big miss? MCC? Halo 4?

Bitch Pudding · (Yesterday, 04:31 PM)

Originally Posted by SPEA

Minecraft is a big miss?

Huh? That can't be right.

They want to sell it via their own platform / keep the whole money.