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3 Bitcoin bubbles (comparison chart) (self.BitcoinMarkets)

ViperfishAU が 投稿

I was looking at past data considering how high the price may climb if we were to enter another bubble. The December 2013 bubble and ATH was in fact Bitcoin's smallest bubble in terms of magnitude.

http://imgur.com/gallery/A9ewMSE

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[–]slowmoon 6ポイント7ポイント  (0子コメント)

Imagine doing this analysis from 2010 to late 2012. You'd see the price go up like 1000x in 2010, then a 30x bubble in 2011, and then a 3x bubble in 2012. And it would look like things were calming down. So you have to be careful about the assumption that each rise is going to be smaller than the last one. Our last parabolic rise was from the low 200s to 500. But the next one could be lower or higher in magnitude even if the long-term trend in volatility is down. The same applies if you consider November 2013 to be the "last" one.

[–]iamadefglobalgrilama 3ポイント4ポイント  (3子コメント)

This trend is likely to continue, imo. As price rises, volatility decreases.

As the market grows it gains more inertia and is less likely to overshoot very far in either direction. Plus the market is more mature with multiple exchanges and more liquidity available across them.

This is ignoring the possible black swan event where we get a megabubble, but that's not something you can really plan for.

[–]kingofthejaffacakes 3ポイント4ポイント  (2子コメント)

Inertia is the wrong term I think. That would mean it's movement is harder to stop, and so would mean an increase of overshoot.

A better word for what you describe is damping. A bigger market has is more and more damped. It's like having a low pass filter applied, spikes are removed and it reacts more slowly (which is where the confusion with inertia might come in).

[–]iamadefglobalgrilama 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

Good point. It's definitely a matter of being harder to move up and down, and inertia would mean it would also be harder to stop once it got moving. Though there is some truth to the latter as the more bitcoin grows the harder it is for a bad actor to kill it. But you're absolutely right when it comes to price action.

[–]ritzfaber 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

From a purely analogical perspective, it's both. Inertia and damping seem to be both increasing. Inertia affects the "agility" with which price can invert its trend (both up and down) or how sharp a peak or trough can be. Damping increase reduces the amplitude from bottom of of a trough to a peak.

[–]OhMaGaw 2ポイント3ポイント  (1子コメント)

In each of your charts, the bubble amount is about 1/2 of the previous one. So even if this bubble goes up 5x where are you considering the start of the newest bubble? 4-500?

[–]ViperfishAU[S] 0ポイント1ポイント  (0子コメント)

That's open to interpretation. It easy to look back on charts - not so easy to predict the future. If prices continued to rise and it's obvious we were in a new bubble, I'd pick the stable period around $420-$440.

[–]IllusionDestroyer666 1ポイント2ポイント  (0子コメント)

Bitcoin has proven its resilience after the Mike Hearn price fiasco so I can imagine a lot of money pouring in again.