Dan Savage in his 500th podcast today delivers an absolutely epic and scathing takedown of the idea of voting 3rd party over Democrat this fall. Starts just under 22 minutes into the episode. Absolutely freaking BRILLIANT.

Repulsive_Anteater · 13時間前

I uploaded the segment to YouTube so it's a lot easier to share with friends and on social media: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T34hGXwCF9g

Repulsive_Anteater · 15時間前

By that logic, Cuba, just a few short miles from the US coast, should be 100x worse than North Korea. It doesn't even have nukes or a land border with a friendly nation of a billion people.

Repulsive_Anteater · 16時間前

For some of us there doesn't need to be anything specific. I'm not a first time voter that needs to be inspired by a candidate or swept off my feet by grandiose public speaking in order to go vote.

I vote for democrats because they far more closely represent my beliefs than republicans. Hillary Clinton is a democrat with the voting record to prove it. What I see in her is a democrat.

The people who do need irrelevant fluff in order to vote for a candidate are the kinds of people that hand congress and their states over to the GOP every midterm for not being motivated to vote, because voting for Dilbert T. Sligger to the state senate isn't sexy or exciting enough.

Repulsive_Anteater · 1日前

Repulsive_Anteater · 1日前

This is an easy one considering Donald Trump is running on the promise of escalating the fight against ISIS to a full fledged war with ground troops and land invasion.

Repulsive_Anteater · 1日前

I stopped watching the debates after the third one. There was a reason there were so few initially planned: after a while it's the same shit every time and people will stop watching.

Hillary Clinton: We need to break down barriers, I don't like guns.

Bernie Sanders: Millionaires and billionaires.

My mind is kind of blown that there were actually dozens of debates in 2007/8.

Repulsive_Anteater · 1日前

It was like this through the entire primary.

Clinton wins by 5%: "Clinton barely staves off surging Sanders"

Bernie wins by 5%: "Bernie Sanders crushes Clinton in stunning upset"

Repulsive_Anteater · 1日前

She seems like a nice enough lady. The person really isn't that important. I support the democrat in every presidential election, full stop.

Repulsive_Anteater · 1日前

You'd have a point if we weren't talking about a youtube rant by a faceless neckbeard. Should Bernie or Trump supporters care that DankMemer73236 on SomethingAwful posts a rant against their candidate there? It's the same thing.

Repulsive_Anteater · 1日前

Considering only remotely plausible things, no not really. No matter what she does there's still light years between her and Trump.

Repulsive_Anteater · 1日前

It's not a serious aspect of the campaign. AFAIK she's only ever mentioned it on talk shows.

It's pretty silly but it doesn't bother me.

Repulsive_Anteater · 1日前

I demand the equal distribution of norm

Repulsive_Anteater · 1日前

Whenever someone on reddit "sums up" how their entire country feels about another entire country, what they actually mean is that's how their small clique of like-minded teenage or millennial friends think about said country.

International polling goes to show that most of the liberal democratic world isn't frothing with condescending hatred for Americans and vice versa, but liking someone isn't edgy enough when you're 16 I guess.

Repulsive_Anteater · 1日前

The country has been creeping socially left for a decade and will continue that way. The democrat's grip on the electoral college will keep getting stronger as demographic shifts continue to bear out.

Generally speaking, though, no. The more this election goes on, the more it seems like every other.

Repulsive_Anteater · 2日前

A significant portion of Sanders supporters are under the mistaken belief that they can never vote for that witch Hillary. This happens every election cycle. There was #PUMA from Hillary's camp in 2008. This year there's #NeverTrump which is already completely dead just weeks after Indiana. These movements never last because people invariably see that, shockingly, the person from their own party shares a lot more of their views that the person from the other party.

Furthermore, Sanders' "independents" aren't true independents as everyone conceptualizes the term (undecideds with no loyalty to either party; also worth noting that these independents are almost non-existent), but liberals who don't identify as democrats but still vote for democrats every single election. With even a tepid endorsement from Sanders, these people will come around after a few weeks to a month. They're democrats by another name. And once this happens, according to data journalists, she will be back at ~+5 against Trump.

There's an interesting article by Sam Wang about how polls in the spring and summer are less predictave than polls in February, and polls won't be as accurate as February again until August. I think the obvious reason is that in February the primaries haven't really gotten underway yet, and its still a gentlemanly contest where may the best man win, everyone's totally open to voting for who the winner is. It then inevitably gets pretty bitter and people swear never to vote for the other candidate, until they come around again about a month after the conventions in July.

So the tl;dr is that everything happening right now has precedent and is extremely predictable.

Repulsive_Anteater · 2日前

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#chart

According to RCP, McCain was up over Obama several times. By pretty significant spreads, too. And you're flipping your lid over Trump being ahead by .2.

If you've followed politics for more than 6 months, you weren't following it very closely.

Repulsive_Anteater · 2日前

Anyone saying otherwise got into politics 6 months ago.

This is an interesting thing to say considering you seem to have completely forgot 2008.

Repulsive_Anteater · 2日前

GE polls are going to be skewed until the democratic party unifies behind a candidate. Trump is experiencing a bump he gets from that luxury. I'll get worried if he's still ahead in July and August when the bitterness has had a chance to die down and people come to grips with what a Trump presidency means.

Regardless of how vitriolic the primary is right now, Sanders will endorse Hillary and work as hard as he can to defeat Trump. The 2008 primary was more bitter than this one by all objective measures, and everyone was fine. Add on top of that the fact that Sanders has always endorsed the democratic nominee and not a third party candidate because he knows it's throwing away an election. Sanders probably won't convince the independents in his camp to not vote Green or Libertarian, but they were going to do that, like they do every election, whether Sanders was here for 2016 or not. His actual democrats will come around.

Repulsive_Anteater · 3日前

Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses. Technology and tactics used to neutralize an enemy's air defense network. This is extremely important considering Russia has the best SAMs in the world.

Currently I really only know of two countries that have combat experience in SEAD, the US and Israel. Possibly the UK in the Gulf War (edit: and Falklands ofc) but I'm not sure.

Repulsive_Anteater · 3日前

I don't expect there will ever be an EU army that supersedes all national armies, I'm talking about a fully integrated corps or army-sized formation with the same strategic capabilities the USMC gets at that size, with each country pitching in their pound of flesh for it but retaining their national military.

Models to emulate would be the XVIII Airborne Corps that the US Army has or, again, the USMC. A completely self sufficient EU force of 100,000+ men, fully integrated, self sufficient, its own C&C, planes, logstics, lingua franca among officers, etc. would be a very potent force.

Repulsive_Anteater · 3日前

Of course the one and only downticket race Bernie supports is to settle some personal vendetta he's created with the DNC. What a miserable asshole.

Repulsive_Anteater · 4日前

The population of the Baltic states prevent them from having any serious defensive capability against Russia.

The only deterrent is to permanently station a large military force there or to be able to get there really really fast. The former isn't the case, so we have to rely on the latter, and right now only the US is capable of that.

Europe has what it takes for it but only if it gets serious about creating a truly formidable EU army that is fully integrated. NATO's (including the United States') current fetish for tiny, rotating, light infantry brigades is little more than morale-boosting propaganda and are capable of very little.

Repulsive_Anteater · 4日前

Sorry, but you're exaggerating a bit

I'm not exaggerating, maybe you're reading too much into what I said.

I'm aware of the capabilities that European nations have, and many of them are capabilities correspondent with the size of their country. What's relevant to providing a unified defense against an outside aggressor is how those capabilities integrate with each other, and the answer is very poorly. It's enough of an ordeal to arrange logistics in the US military, now imagine that all your strategic airlift capability or anti-submarine capability is in another country.

There's more to providing an effective defence of Europe than having the correct number of things (tanks, transport planes, people, etc.) down on paper when added together. It's getting them to the crisis point in a timely matter and having effective command and control of all of it. If Russia invaded Estonia right now and Europe was to respond by itself, the response would be slow and disorganized. It can't match the efficiency of a large national military until it's integrated as one, it's just a fact of military science.

This wasn't an issue for NATO during the Cold War because there was a very clear front line and there were huge forces permanently stationed on it, each with their own areas of responsibility (geographically and otherwise). NATO doesn't have such a defense infrastructure on the Russian border today so until it does, an extremely fast response time is the only thing that can deter aggression.

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